Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2018)

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por luismeteo3 21 Mai 2018 às 22:54.

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  1. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,853
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    [​IMG]

    Demorou mas não deve faltar muito para que os 80% do NHC se traduzam um ciclone (sub)tropical nomeado.

    Pelo HWRF, o ciclone chegará a TT:

    [​IMG]
     
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    Wessel1985 gostou disto.
  2. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,853
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    [​IMG]

    As áreas com água mais quente poderão contribuir para um desenvolvimento mais robusto.

    [​IMG]
     
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    Wessel1985 e rokleon gostaram disto.
  3. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,853
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    Por agora está previsto que amanhã chegue a tempestade subtropical.

     
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    Wessel1985, guisilva5000 e rokleon gostaram disto.
  4. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    17,112
    Local:
    Fatima (320m)
  5. rokleon

    rokleon
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    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    2 Abr 2016
    Mensagens:
    586
    Local:
    S. M. da Feira
    Relação com o ano passado:
     
    Wessel1985, guisilva5000 e luismeteo3 gostaram disto.
  6. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    17,112
    Local:
    Fatima (320m)
  7. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    17,112
    Local:
    Fatima (320m)
  8. lserpa

    lserpa
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Dez 2013
    Mensagens:
    3,091
    Local:
    Horta, Matriz, (120 metros)
    bem, a história diz que quando vira ali, vai passar perto :)


    Enviado do meu iPhone usando o Tapatalk
     
    Wessel1985, luismeteo3 e guisilva5000 gostaram disto.
  9. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,853
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    Cabo Verde pode ter muita chuva daqui a 3 dias, mais dia menos dia. Depois disso, o ciclone vai passar um bom tempo no oceano.
     
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    Wessel1985, luismeteo3 e guisilva5000 gostaram disto.
  10. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    17,112
    Local:
    Fatima (320m)
  11. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,853
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    [​IMG]

    O futuro Florence vai ser um ciclone bastante lento. O consenso nos ensembles acaba a 192h.
     
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    Wessel1985 gostou disto.
  12. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,853
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    [​IMG]

    Grande diferença.

    A 144h (00z) a PC está nos 1005 hPa - IFS, 1011 - UM, 955 - GFS (:confused:), 1007 - GEM.

    O GFS desenvolve explosivamente o CT. No IFS ainda passarão alguns dias até se ter um furacão.
     
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    Wessel1985, luismeteo3 e rokleon gostaram disto.
  13. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,853
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores


    Pelo NHC, amanhã já deverá haver a TT Florence.
     
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    Wessel1985 e luismeteo3 gostaram disto.
  14. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    17,112
    Local:
    Fatima (320m)
    ZCZC MIATCPAT1 ALL
    TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

    BULLETIN
    Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Advisory Number 1
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
    1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018

    ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
    ISLANDS ON FRIDAY...

    SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
    -----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...12.9N 18.4W
    ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

    WATCHES AND WARNINGS
    --------------------
    CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

    The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical
    Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and
    Brava.

    SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

    A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
    * Santiago
    * Fogo
    * Brava

    A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
    expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

    For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
    issued by your national meteorological service.

    DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
    ----------------------
    At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
    latitude 12.9 North, longitude 18.4 West. The system is moving
    toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion
    with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected to
    continue during the next few days. On the forecast track, the
    disturbance is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo
    Verde Islands on Friday.

    Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
    Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
    disturbance is expected to become a topical storm during the next
    day or so.

    Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a
    tropical cyclone tonight or Friday.
    * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
    * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

    The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

    HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
    ----------------------
    RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations
    of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These
    rains could produce life-threatening flash floods.

    WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo
    Verde Islands on Friday.

    NEXT ADVISORY
    -------------
    Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
    Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

    $$
    Forecaster Avila

    NNNN
     
    Wessel1985 gostou disto.
  15. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    17,112
    Local:
    Fatima (320m)
Estado do Tópico:
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