Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Pacífico Este e Central 2013)

MSantos

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Tópico de seguimento da época ciclónica de 2013 nas regiões do Pacífico Leste e Pacífico Central.
A época oficial decorre de 15 de Maio a 30 de Novembro no Pacífico Leste e é monitorizada pelo NHC em Miami em simultâneo com o Atlântico, e no Pacífico Central decorre de 1 de Junho a 30 de Novembro e é monitorizada pelo CPHC em Honolulu.

Trajectos (1980-2005)

tracks.gif


Nomes (Leste):

Alvin
Barbara
Cosme
Dalila
Erick
Flossie
Gil
Henriette
Ivo
Juliette
Kiko
Lorena
Manuel
Narda
Octave
Priscilla
Raymond
Sonia
Tico
Velma
Wallis
Xina
York
Zelda


Links úteis:

- NHC
- NRL
- CPHC
 

MSantos

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A temporada de furacões no Pacifico Este já começa a mexer, neste momento temos um sistema nomeado activo, trata-se do ALVIN:

085904W5_NL_sm_zps86b43bfa.gif


O NHC prevê um fortalecimento do sistema nos próximos dias podendo chegar à intensidade de furacão, neste momento o ALVIN não representa perigo para terra, nem nos próximos dias se prevê que isso aconteça.
 

MSantos

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O ALVIN teve vida curta, já tem a morte anunciada...


ZCZC MIATCPEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP012013
200 AM PDT FRI MAY 17 2013

...ALVIN WEAKENS INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 112.0W
ABOUT 790 MI...1275 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ALVIN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.0 WEST. THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13
MPH...20 KM/H...AND THE REMNANTS OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY TO
THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY
DIMINISH.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 

MSantos

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BARBARA é o nome do segundo sistema nomeado deste ano no Pacifico Este:

LOCATION...14.8N 95.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSW OF SALINA CRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

O BARBARA desloca-se para Nordeste à medida que se vai fortalecendo, deverá fazer landfall na costa mexicana:

085233W5_NL_sm_zps0c537298.gif
 

MSantos

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Barbara se fortalece para furacão de categoria 1.

O primeiro furacão do ano, mas deverá permanecer pouco tempo com essa categoria, já que vai fazer landfall no México:

rb0-lalo-3_zps4a8d783d.jpg




Será que pode sobreviver à travessia de terra e reorganizar-se de novo no Golfo do México?
 

Felipe Freitas

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Será que pode sobreviver à travessia de terra e reorganizar-se de novo no Golfo do México?
Barbara deve pegar a região menos montanhosa do México e acredito que possa chegar ao Atlântico como depressão tropical. Caso isso ocorra o nome deve continuar a ser Barbara, porém se ela se dissipar e se fortalecer novamente será Depressão Tropical 1.

3nmQufz.jpg


Radar
gkEtQYf.gif
 

Felipe Freitas

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Latest from the National Hurricane Center on Barbara's future: "Although the center is forecast to reach the extreme Southwest Gulf of Mexico within 36 hours...the current thinking is that the circulation will have been so severely disrupted by that time that regeneration is unlikely. This is supported by the global models...which also show strong vertical shear over the Southwest Gulf."
 

MSantos

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Deixo aqui o mais recente aviso do NHC para a depressão tropical BARBARA

000
WTPZ32 KNHC 300834
TCPEP2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022013
200 AM PDT THU MAY 30 2013

...BARBARA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AS HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 93.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM SE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM W OF VILLAHERMOSA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL TROPICAL STORM
WARNINGS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARBARA
WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO NEAR LATITUDE 17.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TODAY WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER
THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW
LATER TODAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...BARBARA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE...OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. ARRIAGA IN THE
STATE OF CHIAPAS RECENTLY REPORTED A RAINFALL TOTAL OF 16.02
INCHES...407 MM...IN THE LAST 18 HOURS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 

MSantos

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Aviso mais recente do NHC para a TS COSME

00
WTPZ33 KNHC 240845
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013
200 AM PDT MON JUN 24 2013

...THIRD TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 105.2W
ABOUT 435 MI...695 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM COSME WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 105.2 WEST. COSME IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...COSME WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
AND COSME BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...
165 KM...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART