A level 1 was issued for parts of Portugal mainly for an isolated tornado event, isolated large hail and heavy rain.
... Portugal, far SW Spain and N-Morocco ...
Near neutrally stratified vertical profiles (due to weak lapse rates aloft) but rich BL moisture (featured by 8-9 g/kg mean BL mixing ratios) create a favorable set-up for moderate MCLAPE build-up during the day with peaks of 400-800 J/kg mainly over the lowest two-thirds of Portugal with a decreasing trend to the north and east. Deep layer shear remains weak during the daytime hours with no significant speed maximum crossing the area of interest. Nevertheless, 10-15 m/s DLS may already assist in a few stronger pulsating storms, which might produce an isolated large hail event and heavy rain (due to slow storm motion and clustering). The main concern however will be the favorable thermal stratification in the lowest 1-3 km, where good LLCAPE build-up may assist in a few funnel/isolated tornado events as f.ex. stronger updrafts move over mesoscale convergence zones. Mesoscale dictates that risk and therefore a broad-brushed level 1 was the best choice. Also, any thunderstorm which evolves during the late afternoon hours takes advantage of a gradually backing of the LL flow due to an increasingly ageostrophic component of the wind (as the LL depression approaches from the W). This helps to increase SRH-1 which might also assist in an isolated tornado event. We extended the level 1 quite far east (into far SW Spain), to include the main frontal boundary, where shear will be somewhat stronger. Current thinking is however that this activity will be slightly elevated which should lower the tornado risk. Still, heavy rain and isolated large hail remains still possible.
Esta depressao esta prevista ate quando?
Tinha lido aqui um user ter escrito que os modelos indicavam( apesar de ainda estar muito longe) que para a proxima semana talves entrasse uma nova frente fria com possibilidade de neve, confirma-se?