Rog
Cumulonimbus
re: Evento Esp. «Isabel» / TS "Grace": Açores e Madeira # Chuva e Trovoadas - Out. 2009
Na última hora:
Na última hora:
Muita chuva pelas vertentes Sul e Leste da Madeira..
Tens a tua estação na net?
A estação que eu comprei é uma La Crosse Technology WS1600 e infelizmente nao dá para ligar ao pc...
--- Side note ---
Since the 28th Sept. 09, a strong cold-core vortex SE of Newfoundland dropped southeastwards for the past few days, straight towards the Azores. A prolonged time atop of increasingly warming SSTs gradually caused a warm-up of the cold low/mid-level cold core. Latest data (1st Oct., 17 UTC) have the center at 38N,29W above SSTs of 22-24°C (slightly positive anomaly compared to the climatology) and forecast track is somewhat erroneous in loops around the Azores during the followinf forecast and thereafter. IR/WV composite reveals an environment, already seen in other subtropical events with high-level (upper troposphere/lower stratosphere) airmass overspreading the center with oscillating convective activity along the center. For now, convection was too weak and short-lived for any classification but a tendency is seen to more persistent convection, wrapping around the center. 12Z sounding of Lajes samples the core of this feature well with a moist and warm troposphere and abundant CAPE release. Synop data has seasonably moist airmass covering the islands with low T-Td spread and 15-20kt southerly winds over the eastern part. This is in line with the QuikScat data, showing strongest winds of 30-35kt to the south of the center, but likely spreading northwards during the forecast period. GFS and ECMWF are in line with the development of a shallow warm core and 12 UTC Met9 data has another strong burst of convection wrapping nearly completely around the center with a thin cirrus canopy. A personal classification would be a ST2.5-3.0 (in respect to the Herbert-Poteat technique) due to the increasing organisation of the convection next to the center and hints on developing banding features next to the low-level circulation center. The National Hurricane Center, responsible for official warnings, recently highlighted the area, however no development of a subtropical cyclone is forecast ( chances less than 30%). Despite the more technical discrepancies, strong wind gusts will probably affect the Azores during the forecast.
Um dado interessante:
Embora fora do raio de previsões do ESTOFEX, esta entidade resolveu lançar uma "side note" sobre a situação nos Açores:
Só agora é que caíu aqui na Lagoa um aguaceiro digno de registo, mas já parou. Sem trovoada