Seguimento América do Norte - 2014

Até o momento 12 tornados reportados.
Não há relatos de fatalidades.
Há relatos de danos em algumas cidades causados pelos ventos fortes e inundações também estão sendo registradas.

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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/
 
Assim como ontem o maior risco deve-se ao fato da linha de tempestades, que pode provocar ventos fortes e prejudiciais em parte dos estados da Geórgia, Flórida, Virgínia e Carolinas do Norte e Sul.
Há risco de ocorrência de alguns tornados.

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DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0653 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2014

VALID 211300Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS SERN CONUS TO
TIDEWATER/DELMARVA...

...SYNOPSIS...
PRINCIPAL UPPER-AIR INFLUENCE OVER THIS FCST WILL REMAIN TROUGHING
THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM VERTICALLY STACKED CYCLONE OVER WRN UPPER MI
GENERALLY SWD ACROSS MS. HEIGHT RISES ARE FCST INTO MIDDAY ACROSS
GULF COAST STATES AND TN VALLEY REGION AS MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DEAMPLIFIES AND EJECTS NEWD TO LOWER GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH
VALLEY. DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO OCCLUDE AND MOVE NWD
ACROSS LS AND NWRN ONT TO HUDSON BAY THROUGH PERIOD. AS THIS
OCCURS...BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COVER VIRTUALLY ALL OF
CONUS...WITH ONLY MINOR/EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES LEFT BEHIND EJECTING
LOWER GREAT LAKES PERTURBATION.

SFC COLD FRONT -- ANALYZED AT 11Z FROM NWRN PA TO NERN TN...SERN AL
AND WRN FL PANHANDLE -- WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS APPALACHIANS THROUGH
PERIOD...MOVING OFFSHORE MUCH OF ATLC COAST AROUND 00Z EXCEPT FOR FL
AND NEW ENGLAND. WITH DEPARTURE OF UPPER-AIR SUPPORT AND FLOW
BECOMING INCREASINGLY PARALLEL ALOFT...FL SEGMENT OF FRONT SHOULD
DECELERATE AS IT MOVES SWD THROUGH NRN PENINSULA...STALLING ACROSS
CENTRAL FL SOMETIME NEAR END OF PERIOD OR EARLY DAY-2.

...SERN CONUS TO TIDEWATER/DELMARVA...
REF REMAINDER WWS 21-22 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR
LATEST NEAR-TERM SVR GUIDANCE.

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS TSTMS IN NE-SW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD
TO NEWD ACROSS OUTLOOK AREA THROUGH REMAINDER MORNING AND INTO
EARLY-MID AFTN...BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE CAROLINAS/VA. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION...IN PROXIMAL WARM
SECTOR...PROBABLY MERGING INTO MAIN BAND. PRIMARY CONCERN IS
DAMAGING GUSTS. WHILE TORNADO THREAT IS SECONDARY...BRIEF/SMALL
QLCS EVENTS MAY OCCUR ALMOST ANYTIME WITH EMBEDDED
LEWPS/MESOCIRCULATIONS AND BOOKEND VORTICES ACCOMPANYING MAIN BAND.
TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED OVER ERN CAROLINAS
WHERE CONVECTION WILL ENCOUNTER GREATEST JUXTAPOSITION OF FAVORABLE
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR AND SFC-BASED BUOYANCY. HAIL THREAT APPEARS
PRIMARILY OVER NRN PARTS OF OUTLOOK AREA WHERE LAPSE RATES ALOFT
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED...HOWEVER DOMINANT LINEAR MODE MAY
PRECLUDE MORE THAN MRGL OVERALL HAIL RISK.

COLD FRONT IS GRADUALLY CATCHING UP WITH PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE/CONVERGENCE BAND. FRONT SHOULD REINFORCE LIFT IN THAT
BELT WHILE FOREGOING AIR MASS DESTABILIZES FROM TWO PRIMARY
PROCESSES--
1. DIABATIC SFC HEATING...MUTED SOMEWHAT BY ANVIL CLOUD MATERIAL
SPREADING ACROSS REGION FROM ONGOING CONVECTION...AND
2. BOUNDARY-LAYER THETAE ADVECTION FROM BOTH GULF AND ATLC
RETURN-FLOW PLUMES THAT WILL ACT IN TANDEM TO CONSTRICT AND MIX AWAY
RIBBON OF RELATIVELY LOW-THETAE AIR EMANATING FROM NRN FL.
ACCORDINGLY MODIFIED 12Z CHS RAOB AND FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MLCAPE
MAY REACH 1500 J/KG IN POCKETS NEAR COAST...LESSENING WITH WWD
EXTENT WHERE THICKER/MORE PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND SOONER QLCS
PASSAGE WILL PRECLUDE AS MUCH DESTABILIZATION.

..EDWARDS/DEAN.. 02/21/2014
Clique para expandir...
 
NWS confirma até o momento 29 tornados: IL-9, AL-4, MS-3, NC-3, OH-2, MO-2, KY-2, IN-1, GA-1, MD-1, LA-1
Houve um tornado EF-0 no Condado de Saint Mary's, Maryland, este tornado foi apenas o segundo relatado em fevereiro no estado desde 1950.
O último tornado ocorrido em fevereiro no estado foi em 13 de fevereiro de 1966.
 
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