Seguimento Meteorológico Livre - 2021

Orion

Furacão
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5 Jul 2011
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Um abismal falhanço nas previsões. Acontece.
 

Luis Martins

Cirrus
Registo
25 Mai 2019
Mensagens
51
Local
Quinta do Conde
Caso do sudueste da Australia:

Not all deserts are hot. Some of these drylands, like the Atacama of Chile, the Namib and Kalahari of southern Africa, and the western Australian desert, are the result of cold oceanic currents that divert rain-laden air away from coastlines.
A corrente que torna a zona costeira do Oeste da Autrália seca é a west Australian current que trás agua fria do oceano Antartico e impede que a agua quente do norte do Oceano Indico se expanda para sul . Assim temos o norte quente e chuvoso e o sul frio e seco. O mesmo se passa na costa do Perú e Equador com a Humboldt current.
 

jfo

Cirrus
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30 Dez 2020
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91
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Aveiro
Fonte: https://mkweather.com/2021/02/17/li...edictions-of-gulf-stream-collapse-until-2030/



LITTLE ICE AGE? TERRIFYING PREDICTIONS OF GULF STREAM COLLAPSE UNTIL 2030
ARTICLES
FEBRUARY 17, 2021


Only before a few years, studies found, that Gulf stream is the weakest for last 1600 years /https://www.theguardian.com/environ...current-weakest-for-1600-years-research-finds/. Meantime, situation should make worse.

A "freshwater hosing" from 2030 to 2050, according o many authors, should shut down the Atlantic circulation /https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ppen-to-the-uk-if-the-gulf-stream-shuts-down// what should mean unexpectedly cooldown in western and northern Europe, mainly in Portugal, Bay of Biscay, British Islands, Benelux or Scandinavia /https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554/.

In optimistic scenarios, Gulf Stream should collapse around year 2050, or, until the end of 21. century, but according to pessimistic scenarions, it should be already in 10 years, around 2030!

Key role plays melting Arctic - a cold Labrador Stream pushes Gulf Stream to the south and melting fresh water is creating above large parts of Northern Atlantic big negative air and ocean surface temperature anomalies.

Cooldown is the strongest after maximum of ice loss in early autumn /https://mkweather.com/2020/09/29/gu...st-recorded-september-temperature-in-history// and often, cold conditions are significant during the following winter.

During the spring is situation better, because is available less fresh Arctic water such as in late summer and early autumn.

Track of Gulf Stream shifted to the south has subsequently result of shifting stormtrack of Icelandic cyclone to the south and autumn and early winter months are often very cloudy, rainy or snowy, with AO-/NAO- phases, mainly in continental parts fo Europe.

According to Severe Weather Europe, the next unusual anomaly - the strongest for last 150 years, has appeared over Northern Atlantic in January 2021 /https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/gulf-stream-amoc-ocean-anomaly-united-states-europe-fa//. There are namely 2 regions of sea surface temperature, which have diametrically different behaviour and trend. The first, warm region, is situated along eastern coast of the USA, with the warmest waters for last 150 years. The second region with cold anomalies is situated in northern parts of Atlantic and it often sends cold anomalies above western coasts of Europe, already.

Scissors between these 2 regions are more and more open and it appears that it is only question of a time, when THC termohaline circulation) in the area will collapse.

Accroding to a few studies (Rahmstdorf et al., 2015), some autumn and winter months in western and northern Europe should be -2 / -6°C, rarely up to -10°C colder in the future, in Faroe Islands, maybe less than -10°C colder.

For continental Europe it should means more cloudy and rainy (snowy) autumn and more sunny and warm spring in the future. Summers should be very hot and winters from very cold to very warm, according to set NAO conditions.



Infographics:
image-358.png

2 regions of sea surface temperature anomalies in Northern Atlantic. Source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure...he-strength-of-the-overturning_fig3_324452795
image-359-3.jpg

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4151-1
image-359-1.jpg

Difference between average zonal temperature and real temperatures. Source: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/death-white-christmas-brutal-ice-23177844
image-359-5.jpg

Global warming hole - trends. Source: https://truthout.org/articles/climate-change-2015-the-latest-science/
image-359-4.jpg

Projections for the second half of 21. century - temperature. Source: Rahmstdorf et. al, 2015 / https://mkweather.com/2020/07/17/si...nomaly-which-can-make-british-isles-cold-til/
 

"Charneca" Mundial

Cumulonimbus
Registo
28 Nov 2018
Mensagens
3,811
Local
Corroios (cota 26); Aroeira (cota 59)
Estive a ver os modelos e é cada vez mais certo que irá chover e bem na próxima semana, um pouco por todo o país. Falta agora saber é a duração do padrão - vendo pelos ensembles dos modelos parece que irá continuar durante algum tempo. :rain:
 

Luis Martins

Cirrus
Registo
25 Mai 2019
Mensagens
51
Local
Quinta do Conde
Fonte: https://mkweather.com/2021/02/17/li...edictions-of-gulf-stream-collapse-until-2030/



LITTLE ICE AGE? TERRIFYING PREDICTIONS OF GULF STREAM COLLAPSE UNTIL 2030
ARTICLES
FEBRUARY 17, 2021


Only before a few years, studies found, that Gulf stream is the weakest for last 1600 years /https://www.theguardian.com/environ...current-weakest-for-1600-years-research-finds/. Meantime, situation should make worse.

A "freshwater hosing" from 2030 to 2050, according o many authors, should shut down the Atlantic circulation /https://arstechnica.com/science/202...ppen-to-the-uk-if-the-gulf-stream-shuts-down// what should mean unexpectedly cooldown in western and northern Europe, mainly in Portugal, Bay of Biscay, British Islands, Benelux or Scandinavia /https://www.nature.com/articles/nclimate2554/.

In optimistic scenarios, Gulf Stream should collapse around year 2050, or, until the end of 21. century, but according to pessimistic scenarions, it should be already in 10 years, around 2030!

Key role plays melting Arctic - a cold Labrador Stream pushes Gulf Stream to the south and melting fresh water is creating above large parts of Northern Atlantic big negative air and ocean surface temperature anomalies.

Cooldown is the strongest after maximum of ice loss in early autumn /https://mkweather.com/2020/09/29/gu...st-recorded-september-temperature-in-history// and often, cold conditions are significant during the following winter.

During the spring is situation better, because is available less fresh Arctic water such as in late summer and early autumn.

Track of Gulf Stream shifted to the south has subsequently result of shifting stormtrack of Icelandic cyclone to the south and autumn and early winter months are often very cloudy, rainy or snowy, with AO-/NAO- phases, mainly in continental parts fo Europe.

According to Severe Weather Europe, the next unusual anomaly - the strongest for last 150 years, has appeared over Northern Atlantic in January 2021 /https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/gulf-stream-amoc-ocean-anomaly-united-states-europe-fa//. There are namely 2 regions of sea surface temperature, which have diametrically different behaviour and trend. The first, warm region, is situated along eastern coast of the USA, with the warmest waters for last 150 years. The second region with cold anomalies is situated in northern parts of Atlantic and it often sends cold anomalies above western coasts of Europe, already.

Scissors between these 2 regions are more and more open and it appears that it is only question of a time, when THC termohaline circulation) in the area will collapse.

Accroding to a few studies (Rahmstdorf et al., 2015), some autumn and winter months in western and northern Europe should be -2 / -6°C, rarely up to -10°C colder in the future, in Faroe Islands, maybe less than -10°C colder.

For continental Europe it should means more cloudy and rainy (snowy) autumn and more sunny and warm spring in the future. Summers should be very hot and winters from very cold to very warm, according to set NAO conditions.



Infographics:
image-358.png

2 regions of sea surface temperature anomalies in Northern Atlantic. Source: https://www.researchgate.net/figure...he-strength-of-the-overturning_fig3_324452795
image-359-3.jpg

Source: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00382-018-4151-1
image-359-1.jpg

Difference between average zonal temperature and real temperatures. Source: https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/death-white-christmas-brutal-ice-23177844
image-359-5.jpg

Global warming hole - trends. Source: https://truthout.org/articles/climate-change-2015-the-latest-science/
image-359-4.jpg

Projections for the second half of 21. century - temperature. Source: Rahmstdorf et. al, 2015 / https://mkweather.com/2020/07/17/si...nomaly-which-can-make-british-isles-cold-til/
Já tinha visto um estudo em que o degelo na Gronelândia iria diminuir o nivel de salinidade no Atlantico Norte e iria causar o enfraquecimento da corrente do Golfo. Se tal acontecer será uma catastofre para Portugal. O país teria Invernos á semelhança de Washington e Nova York.
 

Santofsky

Cumulus
Registo
10 Nov 2020
Mensagens
295
Local
Portugal
As pessoas de forma geral queixam-se não pela quantidade de precipitação em si, mas pela persistência de dias de chuva, e até dias encobertos (sem sol). Aliás, tenho a certeza que as queixas seriam bem menores com 2 dias de 50 mm, do que com 20 dias seguidos a 1mm. Não é o total acumulado que dá a percepção das pessoas em geral se tem sido um Inverno chuvoso ou não. Não têm a noção como nós, que acompanhamos e contabilizamos os acumulados, apenas registam na sua mente há quanto tempo não vêm o sol.

Por isso mesmo é que eu referi que as pessoas apelidam um dia com uns meros 2 mm de precipitação um dia de "muita chuva". Se houver 20 dias de precipitação com 2 mm em cada dia, faz um total de 40 mm. Ou seja, 40 mm acumulados em 20 dias é muita chuva??? :huh:
Os meses de novembro de 2019 e dezembro de 2020 foram meses em que predominou o padrão de chuva fraca/chuvisco, sobretudo no interior do país, ao mesmo tempo que o litoral norte teve enormes acumulados. Tudo isto fruto do regime de rios atmosféricos que persistiram durante todo o mês. É não é que as pessoas já estavam fartas de "tanta chuva" no fim desses meses??? Então se estivessem a morar no litoral norte... ui ui...
 

jfo

Cirrus
Registo
30 Dez 2020
Mensagens
91
Local
Aveiro
Já tinha visto um estudo em que o degelo na Gronelândia iria diminuir o nivel de salinidade no Atlantico Norte e iria causar o enfraquecimento da corrente do Golfo. Se tal acontecer será uma catastofre para Portugal. O país teria Invernos á semelhança de Washington e Nova York.

Este artigo não é só baseado num estudo em si, mas sim baseado num facto de ter sido detectado uma anomalia incomum nas águas do Atlântico Norte.
Um enfraquecimento da corrente do Golfo, como já foi falado por aqui várias vezes levaria a uma continentalização progressiva do nosso clima, no entanto a altitude da costa portuguesa é bem superior à costa leste dos EUA. Se a corrente de Golfo enfraquecer, a costa leste dos EUA vai literalmente por "água abaixo".
 
Última edição:

rozzo

Staff
Registo
11 Dez 2006
Mensagens
2,467
Local
Montijo/Lisboa
Já tinha visto um estudo em que o degelo na Gronelândia iria diminuir o nivel de salinidade no Atlantico Norte e iria causar o enfraquecimento da corrente do Golfo. Se tal acontecer será uma catastofre para Portugal. O país teria Invernos á semelhança de Washington e Nova York.

Lamento mas isso não faz qualquer sentido...

Mais que o efeito das correntes quentes/frias (que sim têm algum impacto), a principal diferença entre Portugal e a costa leste dos EUA está na continentalidade. Enquanto cá temos um oceano com temperaturas suaves a Oeste, essa região tem toda uma enorme massa continental, onde existem brutais "mergulhos" de massas polares árcticas, depois transportadas na corrente zonal até lá.

A não ser que a terra invertesse o sentido de rotação... Termos um clima semelhante à costa leste dos EUA é uma utopia, com ou sem corrente do Golfo...