How Storm Chasers Have Made Tornado Alley Safer
By ANDREW C. REVKIN
Here’s a “Your Dot” contribution exploring the surprising mix of factors — including data gathered by storm-chasing scientists — that have steadily made America’s tornado hot zone a safer place, despite the meteorological hazards that are a fact of life there.
The piece, building on the discussion that has followed the deaths of three storm chasers in a powerful Oklahoma tornado last Friday, is written by Mike Smith, an entrepreneurial (and blogging) meteorologist focused on extreme weather. Smith is also the author of “Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather,” an engaging history of how individuals fought institutional inertia to improve severe-weather warnings.
Here’s his post, which offers a strong defense of storm chasers like those who died last week — Tim Samaras, his son, Paul, and meteorologist Carl Young:
What if two thousand Americans were killed in a single year by tornadoes? Would Congress and the media be demanding that “something” be done to save those lives? Of course.
If commercial airliners were crashing in thunderstorms every year or two, resulting in the deaths of hundreds, would they be front-page news? Again, the answer is, “of course.”
Or, if a hurricane headed out to sea made a sudden turn to the west then eight hours later struck New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut without warning, the death toll would have been in the five figures.
Yet, none of these awful scenarios is today’s reality. Why? Because weather science doggedly, and without any great fanfare, “tamed” (not conquered) the weather.
This Nobel Prize-worthy activity occurred practically under our nose without notice as meteorologists, computer scientists and engineers, and, yes, storm chasers pooled their knowledge to create the highly accurate tornado, hurricane, and wind shear warnings (for aviation) we take for granted today. How accurate? In 2011 (the most recent year for which we have figures), of the people killed by tornadoes, 99.3 percent were in both a tornado watch and a tornado warning before the killer storm arrived!
This progress was not inevitable.
Rather than a presidential proclamation or an Act of Congress, the creation of the storm warning system was a David versus Goliath story of individual scientists overcoming the bureaucracy. This story is told in my book, Warnings: The True Story of How Science Tamed the Weather (Greenleaf Book Group).
That is why some recent comments on national media stories about the Oklahoma storm chase tragedy are so discouraging:
“Storm reporting is science?”
“Have storm chasers contributed anything to the science of tornadoes?”
“We’ve learned enough from chasers…beyond that, computer modeling is getting better and better.”
How did we learn Doppler radar really worked? “Ground truth” – having someone on the ground confirm or deny that the swirl of air shown on the radar was really a tornado. And, more often than not, that someone was a storm chaser or storm spotter.
The number one problem with tornado warnings today is that we issue too many of them: False alarms. We have to lower the number of false alarms so the public will have more confidence in the warning system. And, part of the key to these further improvements will be storm chasing.
As a four-decade storm chaser I acknowledge there are some chasers (especially those associated with the media) who behaved irresponsibly in Oklahoma in their quest to get more extreme video than the next guy. If they speed, run red lights, or make illegal turns they should be ticketed like anyone else.
But, most chasers are motivated to get vital data to improve future warnings, work with the existing warning system, or see the majesty of Mother Nature for themselves – in much the same way others climb Everest. People come from all over the world as storm tourists to go with tour companies to see Great Plains thunderstorms in their majesty in the same way people tour Yellowstone or Yosemite.
The tragic deaths of the storm researchers in Oklahoma Friday were the first in the forty-one years of organized storm chasing, a testament to the care practiced by most chasers.
Storm chasing is a noble pursuit that has yielded tremendous benefits to American society.
– Mike Smith
