Tempestade Tropical ERIN (Atlântico 2013 #AL05)

[Kamikaze]

Bom dia,

A Tempestade Tropical ERIN continua na sua rota ligeiramente orientada mais a norte do que o inicialmente previsto, mas sem aparente fortalecimento, o que poderá vir a acontecer durante as próximas horas.

O ERIN, neste momento, tem o seu quê de lotaria, dado que, dentro de aproximadamente 72 horas encontrará águas mais quentes, contudo, também é suposto encontrar shear mais forte e ar mais seco.
Aceitam-se apostas para o que irá acontecer...

000
WTNT45 KNHC 160832
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

ERIN REMAINS DISORGANIZED THIS MORNING...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
PARTLY EXPOSED TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM
SAB...AND A CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE NEAT 0400 UTC WAS 31 KT. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295/14. ERIN IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE GLOBAL MODELS
FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AS
MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW SOUTH OF THE AZORES MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ERIN WILL
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR 36-48 HR...THEN TURN MORE WESTWARD
AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW. SUBSEQUENTLY...THE GFS...UKMET...CANADIAN...AND NAVGEM
MODELS FORECAST A SECOND WEAKNESS TO DEVELOP IN THE RIDGE BETWEEN
50W-60W BY 120 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALLOW ERIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWARD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE
NORTH...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS LIKEWISE SHIFTED NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL SOUTH OF THE
MODEL CONSENSUS.

WHILE ERIN IS CURRENTLY IN A LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT...THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C...AND METEOSAT AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE
CYCLONE IS APPROACHING AN AREA OF DRIER AIR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDANCE NOW FORECASTS SHORT-TERM INTENSIFICATION THAN 6 HOURS
AGO...AND THUS THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS REDUCED FROM THAT OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN THE LONG TERM...AFTER 72 HOURS...ERIN IS
FORECAST TO REACH INCREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...
IT IS ALSO EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND
MORE DRY AIR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST IN SHOWING WEAKENING DURING THIS TIME. AN ALTERNATIVE
FORECAST SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DEGENERATES TO A TROPICAL WAVE
BEFORE 120 HOURS...AS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS EXCEPT
THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 16.3N 30.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.3N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 18.6N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 19.6N 36.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 20.3N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 21.0N 43.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 22.5N 47.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 24.5N 51.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Bom resto de Sexta-feira.

 

[vitoreis]

Os modelos não prevêem grande interesse:

 

[Kamikaze]

Acabou de ser "despromovido" a Depressão Tropical e parece que as coisas vão mesmo ficar por aqui.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 161432
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 16 2013

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERIN HAS WEAKENED. THE STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE CONSISTS OF A LOW-LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL WITH A COUPLE OF
SMALL AREAS OF CONVECTION SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS HAVE FALLEN...AND ERIN IS DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE OBSERVED WEAKENING IS
LIKELY THE RESULT OF COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STABLE AIR...
AS SEEN IN THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND AIRMASS PRODUCT. ALTHOUGH ERIN
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER WARMER WATER IN A FEW DAYS...
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE WHILE THE DEPRESSION
REMAINS IN A STABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION CALLS
FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ERIN COULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OR AN OPEN
TROUGH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS SUGGESTED BY SOME OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 15 KT. THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE FEELS SOME INFLUENCE FROM A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BETWEEN 36 AND 72 HOURS...LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED TO THE
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM...CAUSING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST. BEYOND THAT
TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS PREDICTED WHEN THE WEAK
CYCLONE MOVES TOWARD ANOTHER WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 16.9N 32.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 17.9N 34.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 19.1N 36.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 19.9N 38.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 20.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 21.1N 44.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 23.5N 49.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 25.5N 52.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Aspecto actual:

Bom fim-de-semana.

 

[Felipe Freitas]

Erin se enfraqueceu para depressão tropical devido a baixa SST e ao ar seco, porém nas últimas horas Erin voltou a se fortalecer e é novamente uma tempestade tropical.

16/2345 UTC 18.2N 33.6W T1.0/1.0 ERIN

AL, 05, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 182N, 340W, 35, 1006, TS

 

[Kamikaze]

O ERIN resistiu à primeira "tentativa de abate" e, como anunciou o user Felipe Freitas, voltou a ser Tempestade Tropical, mas as coisas não continuam fáceis para o sistema que tem morte anunciada para breve, segundo o NHC.

O shear tem feito bastantes danos e será o carrasco da capacidade de resistência do pequeno vórtice.

Bom fim-de-semana.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 170841
TCDAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
500 AM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE CENTER OF ERIN IS AT LEAST PARTLY EXPOSED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN
EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER DUE TO 15 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...AND THE CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT FARTHER FROM
THE CENTER THAN 6 HOURS AGO. THERE IS NO RECENT DATA FROM NEAR THE
CENTER...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT...WHICH IS ABOVE
THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/13. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A GRADUALLY
STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD STEER ERIN GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOUR. THIS SHOULD BE FOLLOWED
BY A TURN MORE TO THE LEFT AROUND A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE
THROUGH 72H. THEREAFTER...A TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST
WHEN ERIN...OR ITS REMNANTS...MOVES TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
BETWEEN 50W-60W. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...
UKMET...CANADIAN..AND NAVGEM MODELS. THE TRACK LIES WELL TO THE
LEFT OF THE GFS...WHICH RECURVES ERIN THROUGH THE BREAK IN THE
RIDGE.

ERIN IS CURRENTLY OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 25C-26C. WHILE
THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE CYCLONE OVER WARMER WATER...THE
CYCLONE IS MOVING INTO A VERY DRY MID/UPPER-LEVEL AIR MASS AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR AND METEOSAT AIR MASS IMAGERY. IN ADDITION...THE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE DURING THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN CALLING FOR ERIN TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN
ABOUT 36 HOURS AND TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 96
HOURS. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT ERIN DISSIPATES EARLIER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS SHOWN BY ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS
EXCEPT THE GFS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 18.9N 35.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 19.7N 37.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 20.4N 38.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 20.9N 40.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 21.4N 43.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 23.0N 48.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 25.5N 52.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Aspecto actual:

 

[Aurélio]

Já houve algum furacão este ano no Atlântico, estou achando isto muito, muito, muito morto ou então ando desatento.

Talvez estejam a prepararem-se para virem aos Açores agora no mês de Setembro

 

[algarvio1980]

Já houve algum furacão este ano no Atlântico, estou achando isto muito, muito, muito morto ou então ando desatento.

Talvez estejam a prepararem-se para virem aos Açores agora no mês de Setembro

Para uma época em que o NHC prevê acima da média, anda muito morto, o ano passado estava a começar o frenesim nos Açores, eu acho que a época vai ser é abaixo da média. Só tempestades tropicais e são dizimadas quase logo à nascença.

 

[Kamikaze]

Contra todas as expectativas, o pequenito ERIN continua a sobreviver como Tempestade Tropical. De forma marginal, mas ainda é...
De qualquer forma, as previsões do NHC são as mesmas e o pequeno sistema irá dissipar-se em breve.

Já houve algum furacão este ano no Atlântico, estou achando isto muito, muito, muito morto ou então ando desatento.

Talvez estejam a prepararem-se para virem aos Açores agora no mês de Setembro

Por isso mesmo é que eu vim fazer a observação e o acompanhamento aqui... Também estou a achar tudo calmo demais, mas o forte calor que se faz sentir (acompanhado dos habituais níveis de humidade ridículos) e a temperatura anormalmente elevada da água do mar fazem-me crer que as coisas não vão ficar por aqui.

Mais vale prevenir do que remediar...

Para uma época em que o NHC prevê acima da média, anda muito morto, o ano passado estava a começar o frenesim nos Açores, eu acho que a época vai ser é abaixo da média. Só tempestades tropicais e são dizimadas quase logo à nascença.

Olhe que não, olhe que não...

 

[Kamikaze]

Neste momento, acabou de ser despromovido, novamente, à categoria de Depressão Tropical.
Daqui a 72 horas (talvez menos) o mesmo ter-se-á dissipado.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 180241
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ERIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
1100 PM AST SAT AUG 17 2013

THE LOW-LEVEL STRUCTURE OF ERIN HAS RECENTLY DEGRADED WITH THE
CIRCULATION BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. IN
ADDITION...THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 2310 UTC SUGGESTED MAXIMUM WINDS OF
30-35 KT...AND GIVEN THE DECREASING DVORAK ESTIMATES AND THE RECENT
SATELLITE TRENDS...30 KT IS CHOSEN AS THE INTITAL INTENSITY.
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...DRY AIR...AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE ERIN TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN
48 HOURS. THE LATEST NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS SIMILAR TO THE GLOBAL MODEL
GUIDANCE...WHICH SHOW ERIN DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BY 72 HOURS.

ASCAT DATA SUGGEST THE CENTER OF ERIN HAS MOVED WESTWARD DURING THE
PAST FEW HOURS BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION IS 290/10. A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE REBUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC APPEARS TO HAVE CAUSED
THE LEFTWARD TURN AND SHOULD STEER ERIN ON THIS GENERAL COURSE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED NOTABLY
SOUTHWARD ON THIS CYCLE...WITH A FEW MODELS EVEN SHOWING A DUE
WESTWARD TRACK. ASSUMING A WEAKER ERIN WOULD BECOME MORE STEERED
BY A STRONGER LOW-LEVEL RIDGE...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED TO THE
SOUTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 20.7N 37.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 21.3N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 21.9N 41.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 22.5N 43.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 23.0N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

Arrivederci.

 

[Felipe Freitas]

NHC emitiu seu último aviso sobre a DT Erin.
Parece que os restos de Erin irão se juntar a uma onda tropical que está próximo as Pequenas Antilhas nos próximos dias, vamos aguardar para ver.