Tempestade Tropical JERRY (Atlântico 2007 #10)

Vince · 23 Set 2007 às 14:46

Seguimento da Tempestade SubTropical JERRY no Atlântico em tópico dedicado conforme as regras do forum.

A TD#11 (Depressão SubTropical 11) a cerca de 1700km a Oeste dos Açores evolui para Tempestade SubTropical, sendo baptizada com o nome JERRY, o 10º ciclone tropical ou subtropical no Atlântico em 2007.

Os antecedentes do JERRY estão no tópico Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Atlântico 2007) (Página 23)

Para agora está quase estacionária, mas prevê-se que se desloque para norte até ser absorvida por uma depressão extra-tropical dentro de 2 dias. À partida não constituirá portanto qualquer problema para os Açores.

...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A SUBTROPICAL STORM...NO
THREAT TO LAND...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1070
MILES...1725 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE STORM IS NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED BY TONIGHT OR EARLY ON MONDAY. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TODAY.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...36.0 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1004 MB.
Clique para expandir...

AN 0807 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATED THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE
CIRCULATION ARE AT LEAST 35 KT AND SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS GIVE A
SUBTROPICAL T-NUMBER OF 2.5 USING THE HEBERT-POTEAT METHOD. THE
SYSTEM IS THEREFORE UPGRADED TO SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY. THE
CYCLONE LACKS A WELL-DEFINED INNER CORE WITH MULTIPLE LOW-CLOUD
SWIRLS NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. THERE IS A NARROW WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER. HOWEVER...COOLING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND INCREASING SHEAR WILL PROBABLY LIMIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LARGE AND VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE OVERTAKING JERRY WITHIN 48 HOURS...SO THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS LARGER SYSTEM IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS
JERRY IS STILL EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
HOWEVER...AS A STRONG 500 MB TROUGH MOVES OFF THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY...THE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY
STEERING CURRENT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THIS SHOULD PULL JERRY
TOWARD HIGHER LATITUDES BEFORE IT BECOMES ABSORBED. THIS IS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF
THE TRACK GUIDANCE SUITE.
Clique para expandir...

Vince · 23 Set 2007 às 18:57

Re: Tempestade Subtropical JERRY (Atlântico 2007 #10)

18:15 (17:15z)

Vince · 23 Set 2007 às 22:47

Re: Tempestade Subtropical JERRY (Atlântico 2007 #10)

O JERRY começa a dar sinais de que quer completar a transição tropical:

SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 PM AST SUN SEP 23 2007

...JERRY BEGINNING TO TAKE ON TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...

AT 500 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.3 WEST OR ABOUT 1060
MILES...1705 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

THE STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 6 MPH...9 KM/HR...AND A
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK THE STORM WILL
BE MOVING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL
TO THE WEST OF THE AZORES.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS...AND JERRY IS LIKELY TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
LATER TONIGHT.

WINDS OF 40 MPH EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM FROM THE
CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM AST POSITION...36.8 N...46.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Clique para expandir...

Vince · 24 Set 2007 às 09:59

O JERRY finalizou a transição tropical e segue rumo a NE onde encontrará água cada vez mais fria até ser amanhã absorvido pela frente duma depressão extra-tropical, não constituindo qualquer motivo de preocupação para Terra.
Apesar de ser Tempestade Tropical, tem um aspecto paupérrimo nas imagens de satélite.

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
500 AM AST MON SEP 24 2007

...JERRY ACCELERATING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 45.4 WEST OR ABOUT 995
MILES...1605 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.

JERRY IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/HR.
A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED TODAY. ON THIS TRACK...JERRY WILL REMAIN FAR FROM LAND
AND PASS IN BETWEEN THE AZORES AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED TODAY...AND JERRY
IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...38.6 N...45.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
Clique para expandir...

TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5

DEEP CONVECTION WAS JUST ABOUT GONE AFTER 03Z...BUT IT HAS RECENTLY
RESUMED IN A LOOSELY-CONNECTED BAND IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE.
JERRY THEREFORE HANGS ON AS A TROPICAL STORM...WITH AN ESTIMATED
INTENSITY OF 35 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY AND ON DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE
STORM IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF 23-24 CELSIUS AND IS HEADED TOWARD
COOLER WATERS...SO IT IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH LONGER JERRY CAN
MAINTAIN DEEP CONVECTION. THAT WILL SOON BE A MOOT POINT... SINCE
EITHER WAY JERRY WILL MEET ITS DEMISE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER
EASTERN CANADA IS CLOSING IN FAST ON JERRY. IN RESPONSE THE
TROPICAL STORM IS ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD... AND THE
INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 025/13. JERRY SHOULD TURN A
LITTLE MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SPEED UP AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EVENTUALLY TO BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. DUE TO THE OBSERVED ACCELERATION
AND LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A
LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
Clique para expandir...

João Soares · 24 Set 2007 às 11:55

Gostava de saber para onde se dirige o Jerry???

Vince · 24 Set 2007 às 12:15

JPS Gaia disse: ↑

Gostava de saber para onde se dirige o Jerry???
Clique para expandir...

Parece agora um pouco mais saudável do que há umas horas atrás.

Vince · 24 Set 2007 às 20:05

O JERRY enfraqueceu para Depressão Tropical e não deverá sobreviver mais do que um dia.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112007
1100 AM AST MON SEP 24 2007

...JERRY WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION AS IT HEADS FOR COOLER WATERS...

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 44.5 WEST OR ABOUT 945
MILES...1525 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AND JERRY IS FORECAST TO BE ABSORBED BY A LARGER
NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY TUESDAY MORNING.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...39.5 N...44.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
Clique para expandir...

Tempestade Tropical JERRY (Atlântico 2007 #10)

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