Tempestade Tropical JOYCE (Atlântico 2012 #AL10)

[Vince]

A depressao tropical 10 intensificou-se e foi nomeada como Tempestade Tropical JOYCE

 

[FranciscoSR]

Hey Vince, tudo nice?

Olha, eu não vi como o Gordon se formou, só comecei a segui-lo quando se afastava das Bermudas e vinha em nossa direção (Açores).
Esta Joyce, está a seguir o mesmo percurso, ou semelhante?

Cumprimentos!

 

[LMCG]

Hey Vince, tudo nice?

Olha, eu não vi como o Gordon se formou, só comecei a segui-lo quando se afastava das Bermudas e vinha em nossa direção (Açores).
Esta Joyce, está a seguir o mesmo percurso, ou semelhante?

Cumprimentos!

Ve o mapa histórico de ventos do Gordon.
Quanto ao Joyce... parece que vai mesmo até às Bermudas!

 

[FranciscoSR]

Onde vejo isso? NHC?

 

[Agreste]

Ve o mapa histórico de ventos do Gordon.
Quanto ao Joyce... parece que vai mesmo até às Bermudas!

Parece que sim mas se vires bem, no gráfico da trajectória do NHC aparecem o Corvo e as Flores no canto superior direito.

 

[MSantos]

O JOYCE enfraqueceu devido às condições difíceis que atravessa (shear e ar seco), é agora apenas uma depressão tropical.

Deixo aqui a forecast discussion para este sistema, sempre interessantes de ler.

000
WTNT45 KNHC 240848
TCDAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
500 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012

DEEP CONVECTION NEAR TROPICAL DEPRESSION JOYCE HAS BEEN VIRTUALLY
NON-EXISTANT FOR ABOUT 10 HOURS DUE TO THE COMBINED INHIBITING
INFLUENCES OF MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR. BOTH TAFB AND
SAB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 30 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO THE CONTINUED
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT THAT THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN. INDEED...ALL
OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL HURRICANE MODELS...WITH THE NOTABLE
EXCEPTION OF THE GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM...INDICATE THAT JOYCE
SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE INTENSITY
PREDICTION KEEPS THE CYCLONE AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD...MOST SIMILAR TO THE LGEM STATISTICAL MODEL.
HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION DOES NOT REDEVELOP SOON...JOYCE COULD
BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW AND ADVISORIES WOULD BE
DISCONTINUED.

THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS CLEARLY EVIDENT FROM THE GOES-EAST
SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY. THIS ALLOWS FOR A CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT
OF THE MOTION OF JOYCE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 12 KT. JOYCE
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS DIRECTION AT A FASTER RATE OF SPEED
FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS IT IS STEERED PRIMARILY BY THE LOW-LEVEL
FLOW OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES HIGH. AT DAYS FOUR AND FIVE...THE
CYCLONE SHOULD RECURVE NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE ON THE NORTH
SIDE OF THE HIGH. THE TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCA
CONSENSUS TECHNIQUE AND IS SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 16.9N 45.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 17.8N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 19.2N 50.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 21.0N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 22.8N 57.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 27.0N 63.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 31.5N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 36.5N 56.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA

 

[MSantos]

O JOYCE já era, o NHC não vai lançar mais avisos sobre este sistema, aqui fica o ultimo:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 241433
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOYCE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102012
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 24 2012

...JOYCE DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 46.2W
ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOYCE HAS DEGENERATED INTO A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF THE
REMNANT LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.2
WEST. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24
KM/H. SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST FORECAST ON
SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...BUT THE REMNANT LOW COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AT ANY
TIME.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BERG[VIDEO][/VIDEO]