Tempestade Tropical OLGA (Atlântico 2007 #15)

[Vince]

Contra a climatologia nasceu esta noite a Tempestade Subtropical OLGA junto a Porto Rico, Caraíbas, o 15º ciclone tropical ou subtropical no Atlântico em 2007. Apesar de ser raro no Atlântico, não é uma ocorrência inédita para o mês de Dezembro.

Os antecedentes da OLGA estão no tópico de Seguimento de Furacões no Atlântico (página 34)

As razões do upgrade tiveram a ver com a convecção que se gerou no centro da ciculação em superficie ao princípio da noite e que não existia até aí. Embora essa convecção esteja agora a dissipar-se bastante desde há umas 2 ou 3 horas.
É pouco provável que se intensifique nos próximos 2 dias enquanto cruza a Hispaniola, mas é possível que se sobreviver à interacção com Terra (pouco provável) e uma vez regressada às águas mais quentes das Caraíbas se volte depois a intensificar, embora esteja previsto um aumento do windshear nessa altura que tornará ainda mais dificil essa eventualidade.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS GENERALLY STRAIGHTFORWARD...SINCE A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL LIKELY STEER OLGA ON
A CONTINUED WESTWARD PATH OVER HISPANIOLA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE EXACT PATH OF THE CENTER ITSELF IS OF
RELATIVELY LITTLE CONSEQUENCE IN THIS CASE...SINCE MOST OF THE
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONGEST WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER.
DUE TO OLGA'S DEGRADED SATELLITE APPEARANCE...SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO REACHING HISPANIOLA APPEARS UNLIKELY...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THIS SYSTEM.
WEAKENING IS THEN FORECAST AS OLGA MOVES ACROSS HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AND AN INCREASE IN WIND SHEAR SHOULD PROHIBIT
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. IF
OLGA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...SURVIVES THE NEXT THREE DAYS...THE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT SOME REDEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO LESSEN.

 

[Vince]

Re: Tempestade Subtropical OLGA (Atlântico 2007 #15)

SUBTROPICAL STORM OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
400 PM EST TUE DEC 11 2007

AN ASCAT PASS FROM LATE THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER MAY HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE...BUT A
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL REACH THE AREA SHORTLY...AND I WOULD
PREFER TO WAIT FOR THEIR REPORTS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE ESTIMATED
INTENSITY. GRAND TURK ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF
31 KT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND THE ASCAT DATA ALSO
SUGGEST THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS MAY BE DECREASING. IF
THIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE AIRCRAFT...OLGA COULD BE CLASSIFIED AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE THIS EVENING.

THE CENTER OF OLGA MADE LANDFALL IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF PUNTA CANA AROUND 18Z. THE MOTION OF THE CENTER HAS
BEEN ERRATIC...BUT OVERALL IS ESTIMATED TO BE 270/11. THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING...WHICH CALLS FOR OLGA
TO BE STEERED BASICALLY WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AFTER 48 HOURS...OLGA
WILL BE ROUNDING THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE...BUT THERE IS LIKELY
TO BE LITTLE LEFT OF THE CYCLONE BY THEN. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
VERY CLOSE TO THE GFS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT WESTERLY SHEAR IS BEGINNING TO
INCREASE OVER THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WILL
WEAKEN...ALLOWING THE SHEAR TO INCREASE. THIS...COUPLED WITH THE
INTERACTION OF THE CENTER WITH HISPANIOLA...SHOULD RESULT IN A
DECAY OF THE SYSTEM. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS LIKELY TO
PERSIST TO THE NORTH OF THE DECAYING CYCLONE...HOWEVER...AND WINDS
THERE WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM OLGA IS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH IS
ALREADY PRODUCING LIFE-THREATENING MUD SLIDES IN PUERTO RICO.
THESE RAINS WILL BE SPREADING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TONIGHT...WHERE
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ARE ALSO LIKELY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 11/2100Z 18.5N 68.8W 40 KT...INLAND
12HR VT 12/0600Z 18.5N 71.4W 35 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 12/1800Z 18.6N 74.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 13/0600Z 18.9N 77.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 13/1800Z 19.2N 80.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 14/1800Z 19.5N 83.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

 

[Vince]

A OLGA foi actualizada para Tempestade Tropical depois de um voo de reconhecimento ter acabado de encontrar ventos mais fortes do que o estimado junto ao centro e um warm-core tipicamente tropical.

...HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS OLGA A LITTLE STRONGER WITH TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST
OF HISPANIOLA FROM CABO ENGANO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO LE MOLE
ST. NICHOLAS HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO TO PUNTA PALENQUE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

DATA FROM A HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE STRONGER WINDS
ARE NOW CLOSER TO THE CENTER SUGGESTING THAT OLGA HAS TRANSITIONED
TO A TROPICAL STORM.

AT 800 PM AST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OLGA WAS
LOCATED INLAND OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR LATITUDE 18.8
NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.5 WEST OR ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM... NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND JUST SOUTH
OF BAHIA DE SAMANA.

OLGA IS MOVING ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK NEAR 13 MPH...20
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CENTER OF OLGA IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER LAND
FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE CONFINED TO AN AREA JUST NORTH OF THE
CENTER. A SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 240 MILES...390
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. COPEY
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT ON THE NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
JUST MEASURED WIND GUSTS TO 63 MPH...102 KM/HR.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES.

OLGA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER HISPANIOLA WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 10 INCHES. THESE RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES IN PUERTO
RICO AND HISPANIOLA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM AST POSITION...18.8 N...69.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

 

[Gerofil]

República Dominicana: Pelo menos sete mortos na passagem da tempestade tropical Olga

Pelo menos sete pessoas morreram e várias foram dadas como desaparecidas em Santiago, norte da República Dominicana, devido a intensas chuvas provocadas pela passagem da tempestade tropical Olga, segundo fontes policiais. A Comissão de Operações de Emergência (COE), em Santo Domingo, e a Defesa Civil, em Santiago, confirmaram o resgate de sete corpos, depois das cheias do rio Yaque do Norte, que também afectaram dezenas de habitações. A subida do nível das águas do rio Yaque apanhou de surpresa as pessoas de Santiago, que dormiam.
A passagem da tempestade tropical Olga na República Dominicana deixou um rasto de 24.595 deslocados, 4.919 habitações atingidas e nove comunidades isoladas, de acordo com a COE. A tempestade tropical causou também um morto em Puerto Rico, quando as fortes chuvas provocaram o deslizamento de lama e pedras, soterrando um carro que passava.
Olga formou-se dez dias depois do final oficial da temporada de furacões no Atlântico, provocando ventos máximos de 70 quilómetros/hora. Agora, a tempestade tropical dirige-se para a costa sudeste de Cuba, depois de ter perdido intensidade.

© 2007 LUSA

 

[Vince]

A OLGA está a dar as últimas.

É neste momento pouco mais do que o vortice da circulação à superficie, completamente exposto e quase despido de convecção junto ao centro.

A convecção é pouco profunda, e junto ao centro limita-se a algumas pequenas trovoadas que apareceram nas últimas horas.

Mesmo que eventualmente a convecção cresca, o windshear depois afastará a mesma do centro.

O NHC vai apenas esperar mais alguma horas a ver como evolui essa convecção, se ficar por aqui deverá emitir o último aviso em breve.

000
WTNT42 KNHC 122027
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION OLGA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172007
400 PM EST WED DEC 12 2007

AN ASCAT PASS FROM 14Z DID NOT SHOW ANY TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS...AND THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. OLGA HAS
BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 06Z...AND HAS BEEN
UNCLASSIFIABLE BY THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE SINCE THAT TIME. HOWEVER...
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE
OF HOURS...AND SO WE'LL HANG ON TO IT...AGAIN...JUST A LITTLE BIT
LONGER. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF OLGA IS VERY DRY...AND THE
LONG-ANTICIPATED NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS BECOMING APPARENT OVER THE
CENTER. THEREFORE...SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/20. OLGA REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST OF FLORIDA...AND THIS RIDGE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER OLGA...OR ITS REMNANTS...WESTWARD FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND
IF OLGA HAS ANY VERTICAL DEPTH AT THAT TIME IT SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN
NORTHWESTWARD...BEFORE BECOMING ABSORBED WITHIN AN APPROACHING
FRONTAL ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 18.9N 76.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 19.1N 79.8W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT 13/1800Z 19.4N 82.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT 14/0600Z 19.9N 84.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT 14/1800Z 20.4N 85.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT 15/1800Z 22.0N 87.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
96HR VT 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MAINELLI

 

[Vince]

O NHC emitiu o último aviso da Olga esta madrugada.

O sistema continua como ontem, apenas uma circulação em superficie sem convecção associdada ao centro, mas enquanto essa circulação não se dissipar há sempre uma hipotese mesmo que remota dela se voltar a regenerar.

A OLGA acabou por provocar 19 mortos na Rep.Dominicana.

Olga kills 19, thousands evacuated in Dominican Republic
http://www.dominicantoday.com/dr/lo...-19-thousands-evacuated-in-Dominican-Republic