Tempestade Tropical PATTY (Atlântico 2024 #AL17)

[Wessel1985]

Bem pelo que vejo destas imagens podemos já concluir que várias ilhas nos Açores sofreram alguns efeitos desta tempestade mas poderia ter sido ainda bem pior ...

A Patty fez a chamada rasa em várias ilhas do Grupo Central e em São Miguel fez mesmo uma visita que poderia ter sido muito complicada se aquela explosão dela tivesse sido em cima da ilha ...

Podemos dizer que apesar de alguns efeitos fomos desta vez bafejados pela sorte comparando ao que poderia facilmente ter sido uma situação ainda mais extrema ...

 

[StormRic]

Patty continua a sobreviver

"
Tropical Storm Patty Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
900 AM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024

This morning's METSAT-10 satellite imagery presentation consists of
a fragmented curved band with -30C to -40C cloud tops displaced to
the east of the exposed elongated surface center. A blend of the
TAFB and SAB subjective and UW-CIMSS objective technique satellite
intensity estimates yields an initial intensity of 35 kt for this
advisory.

Although Patty's cloud pattern is typical of a sheared tropical
cyclone, the FSU cyclone phase diagram based on the GFS and ECMWF
models indicates an asymmetric deep cold core thermal structure.
Despite the sub-23C oceanic sea surface temperatures, the very cold
upper-tropospheric temperatures are more than likely supporting
sufficient thermodynamic instability to produce the remaining
convection associated with the cyclone. The vertical tilt with
height is becoming more pronounced due to the strong westerly shear
and Patty should spin down while losing what remains of the
convection and become a post-tropical cyclone later today. The
global models agree with Patty opening up into a trough by the 36
hr period and the official forecast follows suit.

Patty's initial motion is estimated to be eastward, or 070/17 kt.
A turn toward the east-northeast is expected today and this motion
should continue until it dissipates on Tuesday. The NHC forecast
is similar to the previous one and closely follows the various
consensus aids.

Key messages:

1. Between late today and Tuesday, heavy rainfall across portions
of Portugal and western Spain is possible from Patty or its
remnants.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 38.2N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 39.0N 14.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 05/0600Z 40.2N 11.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts"

 

[MSantos]

Patty continua a sobreviver

...PATTY DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...

Agora já não. Deixo aqui o último aviso do NHC:

000
WTNT32 KNHC 041439
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Patty Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172024
300 PM GMT Mon Nov 04 2024

...PATTY DISSIPATES OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 16.2W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM E OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the remnants of Patty were located near
latitude 38.5 North, longitude 16.2 West. The remnants are moving
toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h).

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Between late today and Tuesday, the remnants of Patty
are expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75
millimeters) with local amounts to 5 inches (125 millimeters) across
portions of Portugal and western Spain.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2

$$
Forecaster Kelly

 

[Orion]

 

[Mr.Jet]

Não chamaria já já dissipado, o meteorologista do NHC estava com pressa de ir tomar café.
Estou a brincar, está condenada como sempre previsto mas aí pelas 11h a circulação começou a alongar (inicio do vídeo abaixo) o que era sinal do inicio do fim. Mas depois nas horas seguintes até que fechou melhor de novo.

Apenas curiosidade, não tem importância, agora é apenas circulação de nuvens baixas despida de convecção.
Mas seria giro agora de noite ainda dispararem umas trovoadas junto ao centro, só para chatear

 

[StormRic]

Se não fôr na banda do visível, Patty deixava de ser facilmente identificável, a não ser que se procurasse por ela:
Foi assim o seu percurso em águas nacionais:

 

[lserpa]

Notou-se claramente as ilhas a afetarem a sua integridade, recuperando-a um pouco após passar por S.Migue.

 

[StormRic]

STS, TS e PTS Patty