Eu digo isso porque aqui em S. Miguel a chuva já está menos, e o vento parece que está a mudar já para Nordeste, embora sem rajadas fortes.
Relativamente a chuva é possível, a convecçao está a diminuir, mas nem radar temos para saber bem o que se passa, aí pode não estar a chover mas noutros lados pode estar, e eu não consigo dizer que o pior já passou pois daqui a bocado a convecção pode aumentar outra vez.
Quanto ao vento, o centro do ciclone por vezes é muito difícil de detectar à noite em ciclones que estão a ser afectados por shear pois o sistema pode estar verticalmente inclinado com o shear a afastar a convecção do centro, o NHC diz que está a sul da massa nebulosa e eles próprios vão ter dificuldade de perceber aonde está. Pelo que o pior do vento ainda está para chegar, o centro em torno do qual rodam os ventos mais intensos não estava aonde parecia que estava nas imagens de satélite que víamos. Mas será Santa Maria a levar com a pior parte.
THE EYE DISAPPEARED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY SEVERAL HOURS AGO AND THE
CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY RAGGED. A RECENT ASCAT PASS
OVER THE HURRICANE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHWEST PART OF THE CLOUD MASS...BUT THAT THE CIRCULATION IS
STILL QUITE STRONG. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 70 KT IS
BASED ON AN ASSUMED SLOW WEAKENING RATE AND IS CONSISTENT WITH A
BLEND OF T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE COMBINATION OF
INCREASED SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD LEAD TO
STEADY WEAKENING. GORDON IS LIKELY TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN 24-36 HOURS AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 72
HOURS OR LESS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
LATEST SHIPS OUTPUT...BUT IS IS WORTH NOTING THAT THE DIAGNOSTICS
FROM THAT MODEL SHOW GORDON LOSING TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ON
MONDAY.
NOW THAT THE CENTER HAS MORE BECOME DIFFICULT TO FIND...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 070/17...OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SLOWER.
THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN A WESTERLY CURRENT TO
THE SOUTH OF A LARGE LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF GORDON IS LIKELY TO BE SHEARED AWAY BY
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...GORDON OR ITS
POST-TROPICAL COUNTERPART SHOULD BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE STEERED
MAINLY BY THE WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THEREFORE A CONSIDERABLE
SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A BIT FASTER
THAN THE LATEST GFS TRACK.