Já teve o Vince, mas não teve tanta intensidade como prevê-se que a Leslie tenha. O Vince até foi convertido a depressão tropical quando chegou para dentro da Península Ibérica.
Furacão LESLIE (Atlântico 2018 #AL13)
- Thread starter luismeteo3
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Já teve o Vince, mas não teve tanta intensidade como prevê-se que a Leslie tenha. O Vince até foi convertido a depressão tropical quando chegou para dentro da Península Ibérica.
Spider
Moderação
Bem, verificando-se o cenário para Lisboa e vivendo na praça do Chile há duas coisas que me "preocupam": o antigo hospital de Arroios abandonado com a sua alta chaminé e as árvores enormes do estacionamento do mesmo (veremos quem serão os "corajosos" a deixar lá o carro durante a noite)
Lisboa mais uma vez a apanhar com pouca precipitação.
Mas esse acumulado para Leiria ..
Realmente é apavorante o quadro. Muito semelhante ao Catarina aqui em 2004, a população não tinha a menor ideia do que estava vindo. Boa sorte a todos.
?? Estamos a ver o mesmo mapa?Lisboa mais uma vez a apanhar com pouca precipitação.
Mas esse acumulado para Leiria ..
Aquilo é Mafra / Torres Vedras...
O Arpege tem muita resolução, e assim acaba por ter maior discrepância ao que poderá acontecer na realidade. Mas nada descarta a hipótese de estar certo e de Torres Vedras ser o palco da Leslie em Portugal.
Aqui na minha localidade, sabendo da habitual saída tresloucada 18z do Gfs, que estrondo...
Os 131 km/h de rajada máxima datados a 17 de Outubro de 2015 podem ser batidos.
Os 131 km/h de rajada máxima datados a 17 de Outubro de 2015 podem ser batidos.
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Ruipedroo
Cumulonimbus
Espera aí, se voarem umas telhas, os moveis da casa vão também a rasto??
Agora a sério, esperemos que não se verifiquem esses valores...
dASk
Nimbostratus
Aqui vai um excelente site para acompanhar a deslocação do Leslie com actualizações de 15 em 15m
https://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html
https://www.yr.no/satellitt/europa_animasjon.html
AVISO ESTOFEX
DISCUSSION
...Iberian Peninsula...
Hurricane Leslie is rapidly approaching Portugal and will likely bring severe to damaging wind gusts during the night hours of Sunday
Looking at the current satellite images Leslie still looks well organized with a symmetric cloud shield and cloud top temperatures of almost -70 degree C. The central pressure is estimated to be around 971 hPa.
At the moment Leslie can be found to the south of the upper-level trough. It is forecasted that it should be taken up by the trough in the upcoming hours leading to a further acceleration of its movement to the east and also leading to a beginning transition into an extratropical system during the forecast period. However, models keep Leslie as a system with a tropical appearance for a long time when approaching the Iberian peninsula. It is also forecasted that the system should stay rather strong until it will make landfall. Although increasing shear and somewhat lower SSTs should normally weaken Leslie, the interaction with the through is probably the reason why its central pressure is forecasted to not rise significantly or even drop again during the night time.
The symmetrical appearance will probably disappear in the evening hours due to the aforementioned transition process. Models forecast the strongest pressure gradient to the south and to the west of Leslie. Together with the movement speed of Leslie, the regions of the southern flank of Leslie should see the strongest gusts but with that strong gradient west of the core, the whole coastline can be affected by severe wind gusts. Winds in 925 hPa are forecasted up to 50 m/s.
Ensemble forecasts show a significant probability of wind gusts in the excess of 30 m/s in the aforementioned area. Depending on the model damaging wind gust higher than 40 m/s are well possible. A few solutions also show more than 50 m/s. The risk of severe wind gusts can also affect parts of Western and Northwestern Spain although the storm is significantly weakening more inland.
There are still uncertainties in the exact track of Leslie and in the strength it makes landfall. ICON and ECMWF are the models that show Leslie making landfall at hurricane strength on a northerly course from Lisboa to northeastern Portugal. GFS, however, has a much weaker storm that is also moving on a more southerly track. However, models are getting more and more confident concerning a strong landfall.
The time of the landfall is expected to take place at around midnight (MESZ).
Although it is rather questionable if convections (in form of lightning) may develop we decided to issue an LVL3 area for the wind risk that comes from a convectively driven system that is only slowly transforming into a low with extratropical character.
Besides the wind risk, a locally excessive precipitation threat exists since the system brings a lot of liquid water. However, models do only give little hints for higher amounts of precipitation which is probably due to the rather fast movement of Leslie and the orography of the affected area. But amounts of 30 to 80 mm in a short time frame may lead to local flash floods.
Strong low-level shear together with low LCL would lead to an enhanced threat for tornados that may also be strong. This risk is highest to the south of Leslie where also notable CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg can be expected along a developing cold front. Also, a nice maximum of moisture convergence traveling eastward can be found in the models. This is the reason why the LVL2 area was extended to the south.
There will be an update on Leslie during the day.
Isto não me parece ser nada bom...
DISCUSSION
...Iberian Peninsula...
Hurricane Leslie is rapidly approaching Portugal and will likely bring severe to damaging wind gusts during the night hours of Sunday
Looking at the current satellite images Leslie still looks well organized with a symmetric cloud shield and cloud top temperatures of almost -70 degree C. The central pressure is estimated to be around 971 hPa.
At the moment Leslie can be found to the south of the upper-level trough. It is forecasted that it should be taken up by the trough in the upcoming hours leading to a further acceleration of its movement to the east and also leading to a beginning transition into an extratropical system during the forecast period. However, models keep Leslie as a system with a tropical appearance for a long time when approaching the Iberian peninsula. It is also forecasted that the system should stay rather strong until it will make landfall. Although increasing shear and somewhat lower SSTs should normally weaken Leslie, the interaction with the through is probably the reason why its central pressure is forecasted to not rise significantly or even drop again during the night time.
The symmetrical appearance will probably disappear in the evening hours due to the aforementioned transition process. Models forecast the strongest pressure gradient to the south and to the west of Leslie. Together with the movement speed of Leslie, the regions of the southern flank of Leslie should see the strongest gusts but with that strong gradient west of the core, the whole coastline can be affected by severe wind gusts. Winds in 925 hPa are forecasted up to 50 m/s.
Ensemble forecasts show a significant probability of wind gusts in the excess of 30 m/s in the aforementioned area. Depending on the model damaging wind gust higher than 40 m/s are well possible. A few solutions also show more than 50 m/s. The risk of severe wind gusts can also affect parts of Western and Northwestern Spain although the storm is significantly weakening more inland.
There are still uncertainties in the exact track of Leslie and in the strength it makes landfall. ICON and ECMWF are the models that show Leslie making landfall at hurricane strength on a northerly course from Lisboa to northeastern Portugal. GFS, however, has a much weaker storm that is also moving on a more southerly track. However, models are getting more and more confident concerning a strong landfall.
The time of the landfall is expected to take place at around midnight (MESZ).
Although it is rather questionable if convections (in form of lightning) may develop we decided to issue an LVL3 area for the wind risk that comes from a convectively driven system that is only slowly transforming into a low with extratropical character.
Besides the wind risk, a locally excessive precipitation threat exists since the system brings a lot of liquid water. However, models do only give little hints for higher amounts of precipitation which is probably due to the rather fast movement of Leslie and the orography of the affected area. But amounts of 30 to 80 mm in a short time frame may lead to local flash floods.
Strong low-level shear together with low LCL would lead to an enhanced threat for tornados that may also be strong. This risk is highest to the south of Leslie where also notable CAPE values of a few hundred J/kg can be expected along a developing cold front. Also, a nice maximum of moisture convergence traveling eastward can be found in the models. This is the reason why the LVL2 area was extended to the south.
There will be an update on Leslie during the day.
Isto não me parece ser nada bom...
E não é que estao a lavar as estradas na minha rua ?
Desentupir esgotos e limpar sarjetas é que seria boa ideia!!....