Furacão Matthew

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por Tstorm 29 Set 2016 às 20:59.

  1. Tstorm

    Tstorm
    Expand Collapse
    Cirrus

    Registo:
    7 Ago 2014
    Mensagens:
    35
    Local:
    Queimada Nova, Piauí, Brasil
    A Tempestade Tropical Matthew, formada ontem, evoluiu para um furacão na tarde de hoje.

    [​IMG]

    A previsão é que faça landfall em Cuba, entre as categorias de 2 e 3, na segunda-feira. O trajeto posterior ainda gera dúvidas, alguns modelos preveem Matthew passando ao largo da costa americana, outros mostram ele fazendo landfall nos Estados Unidos.

    [​IMG]
     
    Wessel1985 e guisilva5000 gostaram disto.
  2. Felipe Freitas

    Felipe Freitas
    Expand Collapse
    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Fev 2012
    Mensagens:
    3,702
    Local:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
    Matthew se fortaleceu para categoria 2.
    Parede do olho está completa e um olho está começando aparecer nas imagens de satélite.

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]
     
    Wessel1985 e Tstorm gostaram disto.
  3. Felipe Freitas

    Felipe Freitas
    Expand Collapse
    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Fev 2012
    Mensagens:
    3,702
    Local:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
    Cisalhamento segue diminuindo, era de 20 knots ontem, hoje está entre 15 - 10 kntos.
    Matthew pode se tornar um grande furacão ainda hoje.
    Pela imagem de radar, grande quantidade de raios no norte da parede do olho, sinal de intensificação.

    [​IMG]
     
    Wessel1985 e Tstorm gostaram disto.
  4. Felipe Freitas

    Felipe Freitas
    Expand Collapse
    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Fev 2012
    Mensagens:
    3,702
    Local:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
    Hot Tower próximo do centro do ciclone, na área onde está ocorrendo a grande concentração de raios.

    [​IMG]
     
  5. lserpa

    lserpa
    Expand Collapse
    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Dez 2013
    Mensagens:
    2,392
    Local:
    Horta, Matriz, (120 metros)
    E o incrível acontece, já é categoria 4!!!!!


    Enviado do meu iPhone usando Tapatalk
     
    Collapse Signature Expand Signature
    Wessel1985, Tstorm e Tiagolco gostaram disto.
  6. Orion

    Orion
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    12,141
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    Collapse Signature Expand Signature
    lserpa e Tstorm gostaram disto.
  7. lserpa

    lserpa
    Expand Collapse
    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Dez 2013
    Mensagens:
    2,392
    Local:
    Horta, Matriz, (120 metros)
    Algumas imagens já como cat4 [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
    [​IMG]
     
    Collapse Signature Expand Signature
  8. lserpa

    lserpa
    Expand Collapse
    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Dez 2013
    Mensagens:
    2,392
    Local:
    Horta, Matriz, (120 metros)
  9. Thomar

    Thomar
    Expand Collapse
    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    19 Dez 2007
    Mensagens:
    1,755
    Local:
    Cabanas - Palmela (75m)
    Impressionante este furacão, é de categoria 5 e vai ser muito perigoso para a Jamaica Cuba e depois as Bahamas.

    000
    WTNT44 KNHC 010259
    TCDAT4

    HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    1100 PM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

    An Air Force reconnaissance plane recently measured a peak SFMR wind
    of 143 kt and then 138 kt during this mission's eye penetrations.
    Furthermore, the satellite presentation has improved considerably
    with a distinct eye surrounded by a ring of very deep convection.
    The raw objective T-numbers from UW-CIMSS have been above 7.0 since
    2100 UTC. On this basis, the initial intensity has been increased to
    140 kt, making Matthew a Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane
    Wind Scale. This is the first Category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic
    basin since Hurricane Felix in 2007.

    (...)

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 01/0300Z 13.3N 72.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
    12H 01/1200Z 13.3N 73.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
    24H 02/0000Z 13.7N 74.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
    36H 02/1200Z 14.6N 75.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
    48H 03/0000Z 16.0N 76.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
    72H 04/0000Z 19.0N 76.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
    96H 05/0000Z 23.1N 76.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
    120H 06/0000Z 26.0N 76.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

    (...)


    [​IMG]
     
    Collapse Signature Expand Signature
  10. Thomar

    Thomar
    Expand Collapse
    Nimbostratus

    Registo:
    19 Dez 2007
    Mensagens:
    1,755
    Local:
    Cabanas - Palmela (75m)
    Enfraqueceu para categoria 4 mais ainda muito próximo da categoria 5:

    000
    WTNT34 KNHC 010845
    TCPAT4

    BULLETIN
    HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY NUMBER 13
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    500 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

    ...MATTHEW WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


    SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
    ----------------------------------------------
    LOCATION...13.3N 72.8W
    ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
    ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
    PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
    MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES
     
    Collapse Signature Expand Signature
    Tstorm, Felipe Freitas e Wessel1985 gostaram disto.
  11. Agreste

    Agreste
    Expand Collapse
    Super Célula

    Registo:
    29 Out 2007
    Mensagens:
    8,561
    Local:
    Aljezur (48m) - Faro (11m)
    é um grande ciclone... arrasta muita água.
    Assim que se afastar da américa do sul, pode explodir.
     
    Collapse Signature Expand Signature
  12. Felipe Freitas

    Felipe Freitas
    Expand Collapse
    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Fev 2012
    Mensagens:
    3,702
    Local:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
  13. Vince

    Vince
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    23 Jan 2007
    Mensagens:
    10,624
    Local:
    Braga
    As discussions do NHC são sempre a melhor fonte de informação do ponto de vista meteorológico



    HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    1100 AM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

    The eye of Matthew has shrunk and become less distinct in
    geostationary imagery during the past few hours. Data from an Air
    Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show a very sharp wind
    profile near the center and a radius of maximum winds of 7 n mi. The
    central pressure has risen a little, to 947 mb on the last center
    fix. The highest SFMR wind sampled by the aircraft was 118 kt, so
    the initial intensity is conservatively lowered to 125 kt for this
    advisory. Its possible that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun,
    but there is not much evidence of a secondary wind maximum in the
    aircraft data yet, and we haven't had any recent microwave imagery
    to look at the inner-core structure.

    Gradual weakening is expected in the next 24 hours, in agreement
    with all of the guidance, but Matthew is expected to remain a
    powerful hurricane until it until interacts with the land masses of
    Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba in 2-3 days. After that time,
    conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once Matthew moves
    into the Bahamas late in the forecast period. Note that there will
    likely be short-term fluctuations in intensity due to possible
    eyewall replacement cycles that are not shown here.

    Matthew has been moving westward at around 5 kt under the influence
    of a mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda. This ridge is forecast
    to gradually weaken and shift eastward, which should allow Matthew
    to turn northward while it moves into a weakness in the ridge during
    the forecast period. The track model guidance is in generally good
    agreement on this scenario through 48 hours, and during that time
    the new NHC forecast has been shifted a little to the right toward
    the latest consensus aids, but remains to their left and lies near
    the latest GFS track.

    Late in the period the track model spread increases, with the ECMWF
    on the right and the GFS well to the left. The evolution of the
    western Atlantic subtropical ridge late in the period appears to be
    sensitive to the track and strength of the mid/upper-level low
    currently centered over the Ohio Valley. The ECMWF shows a weaker
    ridge, which allows Matthew to move farther east, while the GFS has
    a stronger ridge and takes Matthew more north-northwestward. Given
    the uncertainty and variability seen in the handling of these
    features from cycle to cycle, the NHC forecast continues to lie in
    between the two scenarios, and maintains continuity with the
    previous official forecast. The new NHC track is well east of the
    latest GFS by day 5, but lies west of the consensus aids. Needless
    to say, confidence in the details of the track forecast at days 4
    and 5 is quite low.

    It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
    errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
    Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
    from Matthew in Florida.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 01/1500Z 13.4N 73.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
    12H 02/0000Z 13.6N 73.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
    24H 02/1200Z 14.5N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
    36H 03/0000Z 15.7N 75.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
    48H 03/1200Z 17.1N 75.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
    72H 04/1200Z 20.5N 75.5W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
    96H 05/1200Z 24.0N 76.0W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
    120H 06/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Brennan
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/011453.shtml



    [​IMG]
     
  14. Vince

    Vince
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    23 Jan 2007
    Mensagens:
    10,624
    Local:
    Braga
    Curioso o loop que ele deu, por vezes acontece

    [​IMG]





    HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    500 PM EDT SAT OCT 01 2016

    Matthew's cloud pattern has improved this afternoon, with the small
    eye becoming more distinct. A NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft
    recently found peak SFMR winds of around 130 kt, and a peak
    7,000-ft flight-level wind of 135 kt. The initial intensity is
    raised to 130 kt for this advisory. The wind field has contracted
    today, and the radius of maximum winds is now about 6 n mi. The
    latest minimum pressure based on a dropsonde from the aircraft is
    940 mb. Radar imagery from the NOAA plane suggests that an outer
    eyewall may be forming, but the current eye has been resilient
    today. Some gradual net weakening is expected during the next day
    or so, but Matthew is expected to remain a powerful hurricane until
    it begins to interact with the landmasses of Jamaica, eastern Cuba,
    and Hispaniola in 48 to 72 hours. Some weakening is expected during
    that time, but conditions appear conducive for restrengthening once
    Matthew moves into the Bahamas late in the forecast period. The NHC
    forecast is well above the intensity consensus through much of the
    period. Note that there will likely be short-term fluctuations in
    intensity like we've seen today due to internal dynamics, including
    eyewall replacement cycles, that are not shown here.

    Matthew has made a small cyclonic loop since the last advisory, and
    the initial motion estimate is a northwestward drift at around 3 kt.
    The mid-level ridge centered near Bermuda is expected to weaken and
    shift eastward, causing Matthew to turn northward while it moves
    into a weakness in the ridge during the forecast period. The track
    model guidance has shifted a little to the east in the short range,
    and the NHC track during this time has been adjusted in that
    direction, in agreement with the latest multi-model consensus.

    Late in the period the track model spread remains considerable, as
    the global models continue to have issues depicting the synoptic-
    scale pattern over the eastern United States and western Atlantic in
    4-5 days. The evolution of the mid/upper-level low currently
    centered over the Ohio Valley and how it interacts with the western
    Atlantic subtropical ridge appear to be critical to the long-term
    track of Matthew. The UKMET and ECMWF tracks have shifted westward
    and slower by day 5, while the GFS has trended east. This has
    narrowed the guidance envelope somewhat, but given the lack of
    run-to-run consistency I'd hesitate to say that confidence in the
    long-range track forecast has increased by any appreciable measure.
    The new NHC track at these times leans heavily on continuity, and by
    day 5 is close to the GFS/ECMWF blend and left of the latest
    multi-model consensus aid TVCN.

    It is important to remind users that average NHC track forecast
    errors are around 175 miles at day 4 and 230 miles at day 5.
    Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
    from Matthew in Florida.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 01/2100Z 13.5N 73.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
    12H 02/0600Z 13.6N 73.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
    24H 02/1800Z 14.8N 74.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
    36H 03/0600Z 16.1N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
    48H 03/1800Z 17.6N 75.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
    72H 04/1800Z 21.0N 75.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
    96H 05/1800Z 24.5N 75.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
    120H 06/1800Z 26.5N 76.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Brennan


    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/012045.shtml
     
  15. Felipe Freitas

    Felipe Freitas
    Expand Collapse
    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Fev 2012
    Mensagens:
    3,702
    Local:
    Florianópolis, Santa Catarina, Brasil
    Matthew rapidamente se intensificou ao longo da sexta-feira, como já era esperado.
    O ciclone chegou na categoria 5, sendo o ciclone mais forte no Atlântico desde Felix, 2007.
    Matthew quebrou recorde de Ivan, 2004 e se tornou o ciclone no Atlântico que chegou na categoria 5 mais ao sul desde o começo dos registros.
    O ciclone devido ao cisalhamento e um ciclo de substituição da parede do olho se enfraqueceu para categoria 4, mas deve voltar a se fortalecer entre domingo e segunda.

    Modelos e NHC estão prevendo acumulados de chuva de 500 mm para o Haiti, com acumulados pontuais de até 1000 mm, o que pode significar que uma enorme tragédia infelizmente pode estar por vir.
    Além disso, poderá haver "storm surge", que é a maré ciclônica, que iria causar ainda mais inundações no Haiti.
    Jamaica, Cuba e República Dominicana também podem ter acumulados ao redor dos 500 mm, entre Domingo e Terça.
    Bahamas e toda Costa Leste dos EUA devem acompanhar esse ciclone com atenção.

    [​IMG]
     

Partilhar esta Página