Furacão Matthew

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por Tstorm 29 Set 2016 às 20:59.

  1. lserpa

    lserpa
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Dez 2013
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    3,039
    Local:
    Horta, Matriz, (120 metros)
    Sendo verdadeiramente realista, no Haiti provavelmente haverá no mínimo algumas centenas de fatalidades à passagem do Mathew


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  2. Vince

    Vince
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    23 Jan 2007
    Mensagens:
    10,624
    Local:
    Braga
    HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    1100 PM EDT SUN OCT 02 2016

    Although an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating
    Matthew this evening has yet to report flight-level or surface
    winds anywhere close to the 130-kt winds measured in the previous
    flight, recent aircraft data have indicated that the surface
    pressure and 700-mb height have both decreased since the previous
    flight. The eye has cleared out in infrared satellite imagery and
    cloud tops have cooled around the 8-12 nmi diameter eye. Given the
    lower central pressure of 943 mb, which corresponds to about 120 kt
    on the Dvorak pressure-wind relationship, the small eye, and recent
    NHC objective T-numbers of T6.3/123 kt to T6.5/127 kt, the initial
    intensity will remain at 125 kt for this advisory.

    Matthew has continued to meander and wobble over the past several
    hours, but the best estimate of the forward motion based on recent
    recon fixes is 360/04 kt. Although some erratic motion could still
    occur due to Matthew interacting with a large convective complex and
    mid-/upper-level vortex located about 150 nmi east of Matthew, the
    cyclone is expected to move in a general northward direction for the
    next 48 hours or so. After clearing the northeastern coast of Cuba,
    Matthew is expected to turn toward the north-northwest within
    southeasterly flow between the western periphery of a strong ridge
    located over the southwestern Atlantic and a weak mid- to
    upper-level trough currently located over the eastern Gulf of
    Mexico. The 12Z UKMET and 18Z GFS and GFS-ensemble mean models now
    show a weaker trough over the Gulf of Mexico on days 3-5 as a larger
    storm system currently located over the northwestern U.S. is
    forecast to not be as strong or as far south as previously expected.
    This has resulted in more downstream ridging in those models over
    the southeastern United States, and the model tracks of Matthew have
    responded by shifting westward. The new NHC track forecast has been
    shifted slightly to the west or left of the previous advisory track,
    mainly to account for the more westward initial position. However,
    the forecast track remains to the east of the UKMET, GFS, and
    GFS-ensemble mean models, and lies near the TVCX consensus model.

    Matthew is forecast to remain in a low vertical wind shear
    environment for the next 36-48 hours, with the shear reaching near
    zero values by 24 hours. This condition, along with the very
    favorable upper-level outflow pattern noted in water vapor imagery,
    should allow for the cyclone to at least maintain its current
    intensity, barring the eye making any direct interactions with
    Jamaica or Haiti. By 48 hours, however, land interaction with
    eastern Cuba should induce more significant weakening. The official
    intensity forecast remains near or above the latest model consensus.

    Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
    Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts
    there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew might
    affect the remainder of the United States east coast.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 03/0300Z 14.7N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
    12H 03/1200Z 15.7N 75.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
    24H 04/0000Z 17.1N 75.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
    36H 04/1200Z 18.8N 74.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
    48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 74.9W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
    72H 06/0000Z 24.0N 75.6W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
    96H 07/0000Z 27.1N 76.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
    120H 08/0000Z 30.1N 76.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Stewart





    Dados da bóia 42057
    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058&unit=E&tz=CST


    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]

    [​IMG]




    Pelo último voo RECON já se vê melhor o movimento para norte, embora muito lento, entre o 1º "center fix" e o último passaram 5 horas e ficam a apenas 45km de distância um do outro, o que é quase estacionário. O avião encontrou ventos um pouco mais fracos, e a parede aberta a sudoeste.


    [​IMG]
     
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  3. criz0r

    criz0r
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Abr 2008
    Mensagens:
    4,360
    Local:
    C.Piedade/Belver/Porto
    - http://edition.cnn.com/2016/10/03/americas/hurricane-matthew/index.html

    Impressionante! Já sabemos que os mídia são sempre uma Hipérbole, mas a ser verdade estamos a falar num valor superior a 1000mm de chuva em alguns locais.
     
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  4. Vince

    Vince
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    23 Jan 2007
    Mensagens:
    10,624
    Local:
    Braga
    O olho passou mesmo na Bóia 42058 que mediu 943mb de pressão mínima.
    De notar que a medição de vento numa bóia nestas condições é muito deficiente, pois a bóia está numa montanha russa a subir e descer ondas de 7/10 metros a cada 7 ou 8 segundos.

    [​IMG]

    http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058&unit=M&tz=GMT




    A intensidade máxima estimada dos ventos foi novamente revista para baixo, flutuações na intensidade são normais ao longo do tempo, e basicamente imprevisíveis dada complexidade de processos que interagem simultaneamente. Os efeitos do complexo de trovoadas que se tem mantido a leste do sistema e que tem sido muito discutido nos últimos dias, a interacção com terra e serras nestes próximos dias, etc,etc.


    HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    500 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

    The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission that ended shortly
    before 0600 UTC did not find flight-level or surface winds as high
    as reported during the previous flight yesterday afternoon. It is
    not clear from microwave imagery if the reduction in winds is the
    result of an eyewall replacement. There was no evidence of a double
    wind maximum in the aircraft data, but the crew reported that the
    eyewall was open to the southwest. Using a blend of the aircraft
    data and recent satellite intensity estimates, the initial intensity
    has been reduced to 115 kt for this advisory. The center of Matthew
    has recently passed over NOAA buoy 42058 in the central Caribbean
    Sea, which reported a minimum pressure of 943 mb and light winds
    around 0650 UTC.

    Satellite and aircraft fixes show that Matthew is moving northward
    or 360/5 kt. The hurricane is expected to move generally northward
    around the western periphery of a subtropical ridge over the
    west-central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and little
    change was needed to the NHC forecast through 48 hours. Once
    Matthew moves near the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday, it is
    forecast to turn northwestward or north-northwestward in
    southeasterly flow between the ridge and a mid- to upper-level
    low/trough over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and northwestern
    Caribbean Sea. The model guidance is in relatively good agreement
    through 72 hours, but begin to diverge by days 4 and 5. The UKMET
    which was previously the western outlier, has shifted eastward this
    cycle, and is now close to the GFS. The 0000 UTC ECMWF trended
    westward and that model is now along the western edge of the
    guidance envelope. The NHC track has been nudged westward at days
    4 and 5, and lies close to the GFS and UKMET solutions. This is a
    bit west of the model consensus since the higher quality models
    are on that side of the guidance envelope.

    Matthew is forecast to remain in low shear and over warm water
    while it moves northward toward the Greater Antilles. Some
    restrengthening is possible, but fluctuations in intensity are
    likely due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict. Some
    weakening is forecast when the hurricane interacts with land in a
    couple of days, however Matthew is expected to remain a powerful
    hurricane throughout much of the forecast period.

    Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
    Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible hurricane
    impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or how, Matthew
    might affect the remainder of the United States east coast.


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 03/0900Z 15.2N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
    12H 03/1800Z 16.2N 74.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
    24H 04/0600Z 17.9N 74.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
    36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 74.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
    48H 05/0600Z 21.4N 74.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
    72H 06/0600Z 24.6N 75.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
    96H 07/0600Z 27.6N 76.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
    120H 08/0600Z 30.8N 77.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Brown
     
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  5. criz0r

    criz0r
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    11 Abr 2008
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    Local:
    C.Piedade/Belver/Porto
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/031154.shtml
     
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  6. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,102
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores

    Há pouco o tefigrama da Kingston, Jamaica, dava uma AP de quase 60 milímetros :rain:





    E sem surpresa... :D

     
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  7. Vince

    Vince
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    23 Jan 2007
    Mensagens:
    10,624
    Local:
    Braga
    [​IMG]


    HURRICANE MATTHEW DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
    NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
    1100 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2016

    The latest Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission into Matthew
    found peak flight-level winds of 124 kt at 10,000 feet and a peak
    SFMR wind of 122 kt in the northeastern eyewall around 12Z. Based
    on these data, the initial intensity is set to 120 kt for this
    advisory. The aircraft reported an eyewall with a diameter of
    14 n mi that is open to the southwest and the latest central
    pressure based on dropsonde data is 941 mb. Little overall change
    in intensity is expected during the next couple of days, with the
    exception of some weakening due to possible land interaction with
    Haiti and eastern Cuba. However, there could be fluctuations in
    intensity due to eyewall cycles that are difficult to predict.
    While Matthew is expected to be a little weaker once it moves into
    the Bahamas as the shear increases somewhat and the ocean heat
    content decreases a little, it is expected to remain a dangerous
    hurricane through the next 5 days.

    Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
    continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
    around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
    During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
    and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
    consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that
    time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
    continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
    ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
    amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF
    and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
    with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left
    of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
    little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

    While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
    east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
    ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In
    addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
    could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 03/1500Z 15.6N 75.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
    12H 04/0000Z 17.0N 74.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
    24H 04/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
    36H 05/0000Z 20.8N 74.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
    48H 05/1200Z 22.6N 74.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
    72H 06/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
    96H 07/1200Z 28.5N 77.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
    120H 08/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

    $$
    Forecaster Brennan
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/031457.shtml



    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Vince

    Vince
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    23 Jan 2007
    Mensagens:
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    Local:
    Braga
    Uma novidade, um conhecido "storm chaser" norte-americano a acompanhar o evento em Cuba








     
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  9. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,102
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    As zonas tropicais não são propriamente locais agradáveis para se viver. Pior que os danos durante a passagem do furacão será o rescaldo. Deve-se esperar nas próximas semanas uma proliferação explosiva de doenças (cólera, disenteria...). Há pouco tempo houve um surto de cólera porque os esgotos da missão da ONU estavam desaguando num ribeiro em que muita gente bebia (pensa-se que morreram +-10.000 pessoas). Isto vai-se repetir porque a pouca infraestrutura básica deve ficar danificada de uma forma ou de outra e as fossas séticas deverão transbordar (e muito haitiano vai para a mata).

    Realisticamente o furacão pode matar umas dezenas (vou ser mais conservador que tu). Mas se os danos forem maus o suficiente os mortos a médio prazo podem chegar aos milhares. Tanta água parada vai ser um paraíso para os mosquitos.
     
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  10. lserpa

    lserpa
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Dez 2013
    Mensagens:
    3,039
    Local:
    Horta, Matriz, (120 metros)
    Pena é o Haiti ser um país ultra desenvolvido e ter carradas de webcams disponíveis para acompanhar o furacão... (Irónico) é que a que estava no palácio, também já não existe... danmit
     
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  11. lserpa

    lserpa
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Dez 2013
    Mensagens:
    3,039
    Local:
    Horta, Matriz, (120 metros)
  12. Dias Miguel

    Dias Miguel
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    26 Jan 2015
    Mensagens:
    2,004
    Local:
    Portalegre
    Orion, a orografia, a estrutura dos solos e a desflorestação de Haiti é também factores decisivos a ter em conta,
    Recordo-me que, no terremoto de 2010, houve muitos deslizamentos de terras nas zonas das favelas junto à capital, na mesma zona onde houve milhares de vítimas noutras situações de tempestades tropicais.
    Apesar da trajectória do furação passar a oeste da capital, creio que num país com aquelas características, irá ser uma nova tragédia. Gostava estar errado, mas cinjo-me ao que já aconteceu anteriormente... :(
     
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  13. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,102
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    O meu raciocínio por partes...

    [​IMG]

    Excluindo a nebulosidade periférica capaz de produzir grandes quantidades de precipitação, o furacão, e os ventos mais fortes, não cobrem uma grande extensão.

    [​IMG]

    O núcleo deve passar mesmo ao lado das zonas mais populadas incluindo a capital.

    [​IMG]

    As montanhas do oeste haitiano são altas mas não por aí além. Portanto, acho que a precipitação será massiva nas duas encostas. P-au-P está relativamente protegida do vento mas não das inundações e derrocadas. O maior perigo para a capital será mesmo a precipitação. Já a restante malta do oeste da ilha teria que evacuar porque a orografia será péssima para o vento e chuva.

    Por outro lado, a orografia do Haiti é bastante favorável. A península massiva irá proteger boa parte da ilha do elemento mais destruidor, as ondas:

    [​IMG]

    O problema do Haiti é multifatorial (muita população, mau planeamento urbano e má qualidade da infraestrutura, reduzida governabilidade...). Para além das doenças haverá provavelmente muita gente que perderá as suas colheitas.

    Mantenho que podia ser pior. Port-au-Prince tem montanhas a norte e a sul. Está efetivamente num vale. Se o furacão passasse mais a leste, aí sim, podia ser mais um desastre bíblico (não estou a desvalorizar o fenómeno atual porque muito provavelmente será péssimo como tende a ser naquele país).

     
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  14. Orion

    Orion
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    5 Jul 2011
    Mensagens:
    18,102
    Local:
    Ponta Delgada, Açores
    [​IMG]

    Agora é esperar que o furacão não mude de trajetória.

    Nota que isto é de 2008 e o sismo foi em 2010. Estou a assumir que não houve alterações significativas (não encontrei imagem mais recente)
     
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    #44 Orion, 3 Out 2016 às 18:32
    Última edição: 3 Out 2016 às 18:38
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  15. lserpa

    lserpa
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    Cumulonimbus

    Registo:
    29 Dez 2013
    Mensagens:
    3,039
    Local:
    Horta, Matriz, (120 metros)
    Já ha duas Vítimas a lamentar no Haiti, dois pescadores perderam a vida, portanto, ainda nem chegou e já vai em 2...


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