A level 1 was issued for the Iberian Peninsula mainly for large hail, excessive precipitation, and severe wind gusts.
Iberian Peninsula, northern Morocco and Algeria
A cut-off low will form from a trough currently placed west of the Iberian Peninsula and is expected to move slowly east. At lower levels, an elevated mixed layer is present atop of quite rich boundary layer moisture. Diurnal heating will again result in moderate CAPE of 1000 to more than 2000 J/kg.
Storms are expected to initiate in the noon and afternoon hours over the mountains and the high terrain of central Spain. Remaining outflow boundaries from overnights storms can also support initiation. Later on, clusters of storms are expected to develop. Less storms are forecast in the south-east where capping is expected to be strongest, but some isolated storms are not ruled out over the mountains as well.
Storm organization is limited with large-scale deep-layer vertical wind shear around 10 m/s expect for the eastern parts than are affected by a jet streak ejecting into the west Mediterranean. Multicells may be capable of producing large hail given strong buoyancy in the hail growth layer. Excessive rain is possible as storms are rather slow moving. Severe gusts are not ruled out of cold-pool driven clusters form. A higher potential for large or very large hail is forecast for any storm that evolves over south-eastern Spain and northern Algeria as strong deep layer vertical wind shear is expected and supercells can form.
Storms will go on until the night hours and are expected to decay overnight.