Meteorologia Espacial - Seguimento 2008

[Vince]

Nuvens de hidrogénio suspensas sobre o sol.

(c) Pete Lawrence

SOLAR FILAMENT: Today, a dark magnetic filament is snaking over the sun's western limb, producing a beautiful 3D scene for amateur astronomers to photograph. It's "rather wonderful," says Pete Lawrence, who sends this snapshot from his backyard observatory in Selsey, UK

Filaments are clouds of hydrogen held above the surface of the sun by magnetic fields. Backlit by the inferno below, they appear dark and cool, but that is an illusion. Like all things solar, filamentary clouds are bright and red-hot. We see this most clearly when a filament juts into the black of space beyond the sun's edge, as this one is doing in the left half of the photo.

In fact, this filament is about to go all the way over the edge, reclassifying itself from filament to prominence. If you have a solar telescope, train it on the western limb of the sun and watch the metamorphasis.

http://spaceweather.com/

 

[madzoid]

Sol deixou de aquecer a Terra

A intensidade da radiação solar atingirá o seu mínimo em 2041 causando um profundo arrefecimento na Terra, defende Khabibullo Abdussamatov, do Observatório Astronómico Principal da Academia das Ciências da Rússia.


A Terra está a deixar de ser aquecida pelo Sol e a intensidade da radiação atingirá o seu mínimo em 2041, considera Khabibullo Abdussamatov, chefe do Laboratório de Estudos Espaciais do Observatório Astronómico Principal da Academia das Ciências da Rússia.

Numa entrevista à agência RIA Novosti, o cientista russo defende que isso será a causa de um profundo arrefecimento na Terra.

Abdussamatov sustenta que o nosso planeta atingiu o ponto mais alto do seu aquecimento entre 1998 e 2005, provocado principalmente por um longo aumento e um nível extremamente alto da intensidade da radiação solar durante praticamente todo o séc. XX.

Presentemente, a intensidade do calor solar está a diminuir e atingirá o seu mínimo em 2041. Porém, devido à inércia térmica do Oceano Mundial, o cientista calcula que o ponto mais alto do arrefecimento global ocorrerá até 2060.

Os cientistas do Observatório de Pulkovo, em São Petersburgo, pretendem realizar uma experiência com vista a medirem as variações temporárias da forma e do diâmetro do Sol durante os próximos 11 anos.

Planeiam, com a ajuda dos resultados conseguidos, prever mais precisamente a profundidade e a data da chegada do resfriamento e desmentir completamente a teoria do aquecimento global antropogéneo.

Abdussamatov considera que o "efeito de estufa" antropogéneo não travará o resfriamento global, sublinhando que o nosso planeta já sofreu várias vezes arrefecimentos e resfriamentos cíclicos, ainda antes da influência industrial sobre a natureza.

Segundo ele, o futuro resfriamento provocará o aumento das áreas geladas e a redução da concentração de gases na atmosfera.

Todos esses factores, continua ele, serão mais um contributo para o auto-arrefecimento do planeta.



http://aeiou.expresso.pt/gen.pl?p=stories&op=view&fokey=ex.stories/353334

 

[Agreste]

Re: Sol deixou de aquecer a Terra

Boa posta madzoid...

Ainda assim e não tendo dados para refutar, acho o artigo um pouco do domínio não da investigação cientifíca, mas mais do género especulação científica...

Infelizmente não são apresentados dados objectivos... é pouco pra ser levado a sério. Vou ver o que vem à rede sobre o currículo do sr. Khabibullo!

 

[AnDré]

Re: Sol deixou de aquecer a Terra

Então mas o NOAA não tinha anunciado que o minimo solar havia sito atingido em final de 2007-inicio de 2008, e a intensidade do sol está agora a aumentar?

2008 Jan 05 - NOAA announces that the new solar cycle, cycle 24, has started. The Aurora observed during the Quadrantid MAC was likely part of the very first sequence of Aurora in the new season.

 

[Vince]

Re: Sol deixou de aquecer a Terra

Então mas o NOAA não tinha anunciado que o minimo solar havia sito atingido em final de 2007-inicio de 2008, e a intensidade do sol está agora a aumentar?

Começou o ciclo com uma mancha com a polaridade do novo ciclo mas desde aí continuamos no mínimo sem actividade do novo ciclo.

De qualquer forma já falámos aqui da teoria dos russos, tem falado muito do assunto mas um ano depois ainda estamos à espera dos estudos para serem analisados pela restante comunidade cientifica.

E o titulo, meus senhores, que lindo titulo de jornal, o Sol deixou de aquecer a Terra e eu não dei por nada. Alguém que arranje um gabinete com janela ao pobre jornalista que só pode estar deprimido com falta de sol.

 

[MSantos]

Re: Sol deixou de aquecer a Terra

O titulo desta noticia é no minimo absurdo

Esta noticia será só especulação científica?
Ou existem provas cientificas que a intensidade da radiação solar esteja de facto em declinio?

 

[filipept]

Re: Sol deixou de aquecer a Terra

Khabibullo Ismailovich Abdusamatov (Russian: Хабибулло Исмаилович Абдусаматов; with initials transliterated either H.I. or K.I.) is the supervisor of the Astrometria project of the Russian section of the International Space Station and a researcher at the laboratory of solar physics [1] at the Saint Petersburg-based Pulkovo Observatory (link, photo) of the Russian Academy of Sciences. He is a global warming skeptic.

Mais em http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Khabibullo_Abdusamatov

 

[José M. Sousa]

Re: Sol deixou de aquecer a Terra

teoria dos russos

Deste russo, a Academia das Ciências Russa não partilha da mesma opinião deste..

 

[Minho]

Número de Dias sem Manchas Solares

Numa notícia divulgada pela NASA o Sol no dia 27 de Setembro cumpriu um total de 200 dias sem apresentar manchas solares. Nos últimos anos só 1954 excede tal recorde com 241 dias sem manchas solares. Não deixa de ser uma oportunidade excelente de monitorizar e tentar encontrar possíveis correlações entre as manchas solares e o clima.

Sept. 30, 2008: Astronomers who count sunspots have announced that 2008 is now the "blankest year" of the Space Age.

As of Sept. 27, 2008, the sun had been blank, i.e., had no visible sunspots, on 200 days of the year. To find a year with more blank suns, you have to go back to 1954, three years before the launch of Sputnik, when the sun was blank 241 times.

"Sunspot counts are at a 50-year low," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. "We're experiencing a deep minimum of the solar cycle."

The image, taken by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) on Sept. 27, 2008, shows a solar disk completely unmarked by sunspots. For comparison, a SOHO image taken seven years earlier on Sept. 27, 2001, is peppered with colossal sunspots, all crackling with solar flares: image. The difference is the phase of the 11-year solar cycle. 2001 was a year of solar maximum, with lots of sunspots, solar flares and geomagnetic storms. 2008 is at the cycle's opposite extreme, solar minimum, a quiet time on the sun.

And it is a very quiet time. If solar activity continues as low as it has been, 2008 could rack up a whopping 290 spotless days by the end of December, making it a century-level year in terms of spotlessness.

Hathaway cautions that this development may sound more exciting than it actually is: "While the solar minimum of 2008 is shaping up to be the deepest of the Space Age, it is still unremarkable compared to the long and deep solar minima of the late 19th and early 20th centuries." Those earlier minima routinely racked up 200 to 300 spotless days per year.

ome solar physicists are welcoming the lull.

"This gives us a chance to study the sun without the complications of sunspots," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center. "Right now we have the best instrumentation in history looking at the sun. There is a whole fleet of spacecraft devoted to solar physics--SOHO, Hinode, ACE, STEREO and others. We're bound to learn new things during this long solar minimum."


As an example he offers helioseismology: "By monitoring the sun's vibrating surface, helioseismologists can probe the stellar interior in much the same way geologists use earthquakes to probe inside Earth. With sunspots out of the way, we gain a better view of the sun's subsurface winds and inner magnetic dynamo."

"There is also the matter of solar irradiance," adds Pesnell. "Researchers are now seeing the dimmest sun in their records. The change is small, just a fraction of a percent, but significant. Questions about effects on climate are natural if the sun continues to dim."

Pesnell is NASA's project scientist for the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO), a new spacecraft equipped to study both solar irradiance and helioseismic waves. Construction of SDO is complete, he says, and it has passed pre-launch vibration and thermal testing. "We are ready to launch! Solar minimum is a great time to go."

Coinciding with the string of blank suns is a 50-year record low in solar wind pressure, a recent discovery of the Ulysses spacecraft. (See the Science@NASA story Solar Wind Loses Pressure.) The pressure drop began years before the current minimum, so it is unclear how the two phenomena are connected, if at all. This is another mystery for SDO and the others.

 

[Mário Barros]

Re: Número de Dias sem Manchas Solares

Olha olha 1954 curioso ano, foi o ano que nevou em Lisboa

Insteressante estudo mas de certa maneira preturbador, pois se o sol está a dormir algum dia vai acordar, e pelo que se diz por aí, já está bem atrasado.

 

[Vince]

O sol parece querer acordar lentamente do longo mínimo. Já vamos na 3ª mancha consecutiva do novo ciclo 24, sendo que esta última, a 1007, é a mais forte até à data.


11007 24 N35E15 30 oct 2008
11006 24 S27W63 17 Oct 2008
11005 24 N26E42 12 Oct 2008
11004 23 S08W17 11 Oct 2008
11003 23 S23E28 05 Oct 2008
11002 24 N25W27 23 Sep 2008
11001 23 N06E14 12 Sep 2008
11000 23 S13E24 19 Jul 2008
10999 23 S02E60 17 Jun 2008
10998 23 S09E53 11 Jun 2008
10997 23 S08W14 28 May 2008
10996 23 N13E59 17 May 2008 02 Beta
10995 23 N12E22 17 May 2008 01 Alpha
10994 23 S11E04 17 May 2008 01 Alpha
10993 24 S29E27 05 Mai 2008 03 Beta
10992 23 N13W01 23 Avr 2008 03 Beta
10991 23 S09E29 20 Avr 2008 03 Beta
10990 24 N26E20 15 Avr 2008 01 Alpha
10989 23 S10E77 26 Mar 2008 01 Alpha
10988 23 S09E59 24 Mar 2008 06 Beta
10987 23 S08E50 24 Mar 2008 04 Beta
10986 23 S04W41 16 Mar 2008 02 Beta
10985 23 S10W83 11 Mar 2008 02 Beta
10984 23 S05W69 06 Mar 2008 03 Beta
10983 23 S01W39 26 Fev 2008 02 Alpha
10982 23 S09E53 30 Jan 2008 03 Beta
10981 begining SC 24 N30E22 05 Jan 2008 03 Beta
10980 23 S09E90 01 Jan 2008

There is a lovely swirling plasma maelstrom approaching the sun's western limb," reports astrophotographer Pete Lawrence, who sends this picture from his backyard observatory in Selsey, UK:

Most of us call it "sunspot 1007." It is only the eighth sunspot of young Solar Cycle 24; it is also the biggest and most active. On Nov. 3rd and 4th, sunspot 1007 unleashed a series of B-class solar flares that bathed Earth's dayside in X-rays and caused ionospheric disturbances over Europe. After many months of deep solar minimum, the sun is finally showing signs of life.

http://spaceweather.com/

There is a possible active region on the farside of the sun that is producing countless CME's. In the past 24 hours there was atleast 2 of them observed in the latest Lasco Movies.

 

[Vince]

E mais um do novo ciclo 24.

SUNSPOT GROUP 1008: A new group of sunspots is growing rapidly in the sun's northern hemisphere. The active region, numbered 1008, contains no fewer than seven dark cores. Pavol Rapavy sends this picture from his backyard observatory in Rimavska Sobota, Slovakia:




http://spaceweather.com/

The Sun Shows Signs of Life
After two-plus years of few sunspots, even fewer solar flares, and a generally eerie calm, the sun is finally showing signs of life.

"I think solar minimum is behind us," says sunspot forecaster David Hathaway of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center.

His statement is prompted by an October flurry of sunspots. "Last month we counted five sunspot groups," he says. That may not sound like much, but in a year with record-low numbers of sunspots and long stretches of utter spotlessness, five is significant. "This represents a real increase in solar activity."

Even more significant is the fact that four of the five sunspot groups belonged to Solar Cycle 24, the long-awaited next installment of the sun's 11-year solar cycle. "October was the first time we've seen sunspots from new Solar Cycle 24 outnumbering spots from old Solar Cycle 23. It's a good sign that the new cycle is taking off."


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Old Solar Cycle 23 peaked in 2000 and has since decayed to low levels. Meanwhile, new Solar Cycle 24 has struggled to get started. 2008 is a year of overlap with both cycles weakly active at the same time. From January to September, the sun produced a total of 22 sunspot groups; 82% of them belonged to old Cycle 23. October added five more; but this time 80% belonged to Cycle 24. The tables have turned.

At first glance, old- and new-cycle sunspots look the same, but they are not. To tell the difference, solar physicists check two things: a sunspot's heliographic latitude and its magnetic polarity. (1) New-cycle sunspots always appear at high latitude, while old-cycle spots cluster around the sun's equator. (2) The magnetic polarity of new-cycle spots is reversed compared to old-cycle spots. Four of October's five sunspot groups satisfied these two criteria for membership in Solar Cycle 24.

The biggest of the new-cycle spots emerged at the end of the month on Halloween. Numbered 1007, or "double-oh seven" for short, the sunspot had two dark cores each wider than Earth connected by active magnetic filaments thousands of kilometers long. Amateur astronomer Alan Friedman took this picture from his backyard observatory in Buffalo, New York:

On Nov. 3rd and again on Nov. 4th, double-oh seven unleashed a series of B-class solar flares. Although B-flares are considered minor, the explosions made themselves felt on Earth. X-rays bathed the dayside of our planet and sent waves of ionization rippling through the atmosphere over Europe. Hams monitoring VLF radio beacons noticed strange "fades" and "surges" caused by the sudden ionospheric disturbances.

Hathaway tamps down the excitement: "We're still years away from solar maximum and, in the meantime, the sun is going to have some more quiet stretches." Even with its flurry of sunspots, the October sun was mostly blank, with zero sunspots on 20 of the month's 31 days.

But it's a start. Stay tuned for solar activity.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/07nov_signsoflife.htm

 

[stormy]

bem... se o sol acordar a sério provavelmente o frio não será tanto neste inverno.
quanto ao inicio do ciclo eu penso que não tem nada a ver com uma maior ou menor actividade a longo prazo já que se o ciclo for fraco ou for o inicio de uma série de ciclos sucessivamente menos intensos ( o que a NASA desmente), isso significaria que o sol estaria a "adormecer" para acordar apenas na segunda metade deste século.
não devemos especular pois se para estudar o clima de uma cidade sao precisos 30 anos ,e quantos mais melhor, para estudar os ciclos solares ( aprofundadamente) são precisos séculos e nós humanos " andamos nisto" há pouco tempo em termos da escala temporal do sol.
quem ler esta noticia vai pensar que o sol vai morrer mas isso só vai acontecer denro de 5 biliões de anos portanto todos os cientistas que se prezem não devem andar ai a mandar bocas sobre "o sol deixou de aquecer a terra" até porque ao dizerem isto apenas estão a afirmar-se como maus cientistas daqueles que andam a falar antes de terem feito estudos e experiencias sérias sobre o assunto.
boas

 

[Luis França]

Apesar de este artigo ser de Maio de 2008 não deixa de ser pertinente:

The sun’s movement through the Milky Way regularly sends comets hurtling into the inner solar system – coinciding with mass life extinctions on earth, a new study claims.

Scientists at the Cardiff Centre for Astrobiology built a computer model of our solar system’s movement and found that it “bounces” up and down through the plane of the galaxy. As we pass through the densest part of the plane, gravitational forces from the surrounding giant gas and dust clouds dislodge comets from their paths. The comets plunge into the solar system, some of them colliding with the earth.

The Cardiff team found that we pass through the galactic plane every 35 to 40 million years, increasing the chances of a comet collision tenfold. Evidence from craters on Earth also suggests we suffer more collisions approximately 36 million years. Professor William Napier, of the Cardiff Centre for Astrobiology, said: “It’s a beautiful match between what we see on the ground and what is expected from the galactic record.”

The periods of comet bombardment also coincide with mass extinctions, such as that of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago. Our present position in the galaxy suggests we are now very close to another such period.

 

[pedropb]

Alguem viu hj uma luz muito brilhante eram cerca das 23h a Este? Era uma luz muito brilhante que depois se apagou por completo. Estranho!!!!