Política e economia internacional 2015

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http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...vely-reinharts-and-rogoff-advise-in-new-study

 

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Instabilidade financeira em Andorra. Curiosamente, é a incapacidade do governo em salvar os bancos que pode levar à sua capitulação:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...the-brink-of-Europes-next-banking-crisis.html

Mas não faltam territórios para lavar dinheiro. O Reino Unido e territórios satélite lideram a lista.

 

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http://www.businessinsider.com/r-putin-letter-to-arab-summit-triggers-strong-saudi-attack-2015-3

 

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For years, the Americans saw President Ali Abdullah Saleh as a key ally in the fight against al-Qaeda. He allowed his air bases to be used by US drones to strike at the movement’s operatives, and gladly received Western aid in development cash and arms supplies.

Yet according to claims in a United Nations report last month, one of the first things Mr Saleh did when his three-decade rule was threatened by the 2011 Arab Spring was strike a secret deal to give an entire southern province to al-Qaeda. The more he could portray Yemen as falling into militant hands, he calculated, the more the West want to keep him in office at all costs.

On this occasion, his unholy alliance failed in its goal: by the following year, his Western backers had quietly forced him out in return for immunity from prosecution. But last week, the man with a record of doing deals with anyone who will keep him in power was once again proving that his cunning should never be underestimated.

While Tehran has denied any involvement, one person who is undoubtedly helping the Houthis is Mr Saleh. Having fought tooth and nail against the Houthis himself during his time in power, he has now joined their side, instructing cronies and relatives in the army to join forces with the rebels. Thus has a small local rebellion become a nationwide civil war - and thus has the wily Mr Saleh maneouvred himself back into the centrestage of power.

Mr Saleh, however, may have other reasons to cling on to power. Another section of the UN report cited claims that he had accumulated a vast fortune while in office, much of it salted away by friendly businessmen around the world.

“He is alleged to have amassed assets between $32 billion and $60 billion, most of which are believed to have been transferred abroad under false names or the names of others holding the assets on his behalf,” the report said.

“These assets are said to take the form of property, cash, shares, gold and other valuable commodities.”

The figures might be an exaggeration: much of Mr Saleh’s ill-gotten gains would have been circulated back into payments to tribal leaders to win their loyalty. But one Saudi analyst estimated that while the $60 billion figure was too high, it could still have been “a quarter of that”.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...ex-dictator-is-tearing-his-country-apart.html



Sim... sucesso...

 

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E depois de Chipre, é a Islândia que termina com os controlos de capitais:

Seven years after its financial meltdown, Iceland is preparing to lift the capital controls that have left an estimated $7bn tied up in assets linked to the krona.

The Icelandic finance authorities, after spending several years wading through the effects of its banking system collapse, hope to have a plan finalised in the coming months while the Icelandic economy is strong enough to withstand the change.

Iceland’s banking sector had assets worth almost 900pc of the country’s GDP before the financial crisis. Half of their assets were held abroad, chiefly in the Nordics and in the UK. British retail banking customers recovered at least some of their money after the Government stepped in to guarantee deposits at a cost of £4.5bn.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11500803/Iceland-prepares-to-come-in-from-the-cold.html

A gigantesca avalancagem financeira relativamente ao PIB dos países tende a causar desastres. Mas ainda assim a solução para muitos passa por mais desregulamentação financeira.

 

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Um excelente exemplo de crony capitalism disfarçado de aparente benevolência:

Billionaire financier George Soros says he is prepared to invest $1 billion in Ukraine if Western countries help support private investment there.
In an interview published by Austrian newspaper Der Standard on March 30, Soros said, "I stand ready."

He said there were "concrete investment ideas, for example in agriculture and infrastructure projects."

Soros said the West could help make Ukraine more attractive to investors by protecting them against political risks -- possibly by providing financing "at EU interest rates -- very close to zero."

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-soros-invest-billion-if-west-helps/26927847.html

Qual é o custo para ele 'investir' na Ucrânia (especialmente na agricultura - algo que muitas vezes abordei)?

Billionaire financier George Soros has urged the West to step up aid to Ukraine, outlining steps towards a $50 billion financing package that he said should be viewed as a bulwark against an increasingly aggressive Russia.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/08/us-ukraine-crisis-soros-idUSKBN0KH0NQ20150108

Já houve reuniões entre os dois oligarcas:

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/ukr...-continue-dialogue-at-davos-forum-377324.html

E o corporativismo continua. O dinheiro público é usado para financiar iniciativas que vão contra o interesses do povo (neste caso guerras). Depois as grandes multinacionais usufruem do sangue nas ruas e absorvem tudo. É apenas e só uma transferência de dinheiro (público privado).

Aliás, o Soros é mais um que adora a 'democracia' quando ela vai ao encontro dos seus interesses. Voltando atrás no tempo:

A group of party activists threw a mixture of water and glue at George Soros at a human rights conference on Wednesday in protest at the billionaire philanthropist's visit to Ukraine, the radical nationalist Bratstvo party said.
The Hungarian-born financier arrived in the former Soviet state earlier this week amid negative publicity which he and some opposition leaders said had been engineered by President Leonid Kuchma's administration to discredit him.

The Bratstvo (Brotherhood) party, well-known for frequent protests against Kiev's mayor and for graffiti across the capital, said it was responsible for soiling Soros.

The party accused the billionaire of trying to prompt a Ukrainian revolution similar to that which toppled Georgia's former president Eduard Shevardnadze last year.

The financier has set up foundations intended to encourage democratic reforms and open societies, particularly in Eastern Europe, where he has poured millions of dollars into philanthropic works since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/31/business/31WIRE-SOROS.html

Soros launched his Open Society Foundations in 1979 to promote democracy and open societies. Most of their work has been focused on former Communist countries in central and eastern Europe, but they've also funded programs in Africa and the U.S.

"Ukraine is defending Europe's borders," Soros was quoted as saying. "But above all, the country is fighting for European values such as the rule of law and freedom. That is too often forgotten."

http://money.cnn.com/2015/03/30/investing/ukraine-soros-billion-russia/index.html?iid=HP_LN

 

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Fonte

 

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Acho que nunca publiquei isto mas aqui fica um registo fotográfico de como era o Afeganistão antes da operação ciclone:

http://pt.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operação_Ciclone

Desde já, e como spoiler, avanço que era muito diferente:

http://www.rferl.org/media/photogallery/afghanistan-kabul-historical-photos/24892496.html

Claro que nunca se saberá como teria sido o futuro do país sob o jugo da URSS ao invés dos talibã (dificilmente teria sido pior). Infelizmente, 30 anos depois ainda continua-se a financiar grupos que mais cedo ou mais tarde vão ser, oficialmente, considerados terroristas.

 

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Prevejo um desastre para os Açores.

 

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http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/01/opinion/the-french-surveillance-state.html?_r=0

 

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A group of British exploration companies have discovered oil and gas in an offshore area north of the Falkland Islands, which could raise tensions with Argentina over their disputed ownership.

Falkland Oil and Gas, which shares the exploration area with Rockhopper and Premier Oil, said the 'Zebedee' exploration well was "better than expected".

The London-listed oil explorers found an oil reservoir 25 metres thick and a gas deposit 17.5m thick sandwiched between sands. The well was drilled on a licence area that is 40pc owned by Falkland Oil and Gas, 36pc Premier Oil, and 24pc Rockhopper Exploration.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...-and-gas-discovered-off-Falkland-Islands.html

Isto vem no seguimento disto:

Britain to boost Falklands Islands defences

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-32031342

Quanto ao Médio Oriente, as próximas décadas afiguram-se como muito perigosas. A influência americana irá diminuir, bem como os elevados subsídios aos países do médio oriente (egito, paquistão etc). O Irão irá tentar, independentemente de qualquer acordo, arranjar a bomba nuclear. Uma corrida ao armamento nuclear é inevitável. E com isto os ataques antecipatórios serão mais comuns. Já há uma corrida à energia nuclear:

Emirados Árabes Unidos:

Construction of the UAE’s first nuclear energy plant passed a key milestone this week after workers completed building the reactor’s concrete dome.

The dome is the final structural component of the 70-metre super-strong building housing the reactor, Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation (Enec) said.

http://www.thenational.ae/business/energy/reactor-dome-in-place-at-uae-nuclear-plant

Jordânia:

Russia has signed a $10 billion agreement with Jordan for the construction of the country’s first nuclear power plant. Jordan currently lacks local energy sources and struggles to meet its growing electricity demand.

The agreement between Russia's state-run Rosatom and the Jordan Atomic Energy Commission was signed on Tuesday in Amman. The contract is for the construction of a two-unit 2,000 megawatt power plant in the north of the country by 2022.

http://rt.com/business/243853-russia-jordan-nuclear-plant/

Egito:

The presidents of Russia and Egypt have announced after talks in Cairo, that the two countries are to build Egypt's first nuclear power plant together, as well as boosting natural gas trade among other deals.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/02/russia-build-egypt-nuclear-power-plant-150210185343926.html

Arábia Saudita:

Saudi Arabia and South Korea have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to cooperate on the development of nuclear energy, Saudi state news agency SPA said, building on a deal signed in 2011.

Saudi Arabia aims to build 17 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear power by 2032 as well as around 41 GW of solar capacity. The oil exporter currently has no nuclear power.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/04/saudi-south-korea-nuclear-idUSL5N0W61GM20150304

Turquia e Índia:

Japan is preparing to start up a massive nuclear-fuel reprocessing plant that can produce nine tons of weapons-usable plutonium annually — enough for 2,000 atomic bombs. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has also been busy vending Japan’s nuclear industry around the world, including to seismically active Turkey and India, countries that have even less institutional oversight than Japan.

http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion...ia-shouldnt-buy-what-japan-is-trying-to-sell/

Paquistão:

A Chinese official has confirmed that China is involved in as many as six nuclear power projects in Pakistan and is likely to export more reactors to the country, indicating that the much-debated civilian nuclear cooperation between the two countries will go ahead despite concerns voiced that it is in contravention of Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG) guidelines.

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/nation...building-six-nuclear-power-plants-in-pakistan

Há uns dias vi um documentário em que figurava um defensor da bomba nuclear do Paquistão. Chegou a dizer que o Paquistão tem o direito de vender tecnologia nuclear porque é pobre. Centrais nucleares em países pobres, cheios de conflitos étnicos, corrupção omnipresente e com aparelhos de segurança duvidosos. O que é que pode correr mal?

Mas fica pior:

China continues to help Pakistan build nuclear power plants using technology from 1970s despite the Japanese nuclear crisis.

"China has been developing its own nuclear technology, but it (the technology in Pakistan) is outdated," said Mark Hibbs, an atomic energy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-cnt.aspx?id=20110325000101&cid=1301

Infelizmente também prevejo que os acidentes nucleares serão mais comuns num futuro próximo. Os países estão falidos. Não só não têm dinheiro para construir reatores mas também não terão liberdade financeira para manter ou desativar os reatores antigos:

Japan says it will soon require atomic reactors to be shut down after 40 years of use to improve safety following the nuclear crisis set off by last year’s tsunami.

Concern about aging reactors has been growing because the three units at the Fukushima Dai-ichi plant in northeastern Japan that went into meltdown following the tsunami in March were built starting in 1967. Among other reactors at least 40 years old are those at the Tsuruga and Mihama plants in central Japan, which were built starting in 1970.

Many more of the 54 reactors in Japan will reach the 40-year mark in the near future, though some were built only a few years ago.

http://www.tokyotimes.com/japan-to-limit-reactors-to-40-years-maybe/

Half of the nation's 104 nuclear reactors are over 30 years old, according to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Most of the remaining reactors are at least 20 years old.

Originally granted licenses to operate for 40 years, most of the country's reactors have applied for a 20-year extension. Sixty-two extensions have been granted so far, and 20 are still pending, according to the industry group the Nuclear Energy Institute.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/03/15/news/economy/nuclear_plants_us/

Finalmente:

Egypt was offered nuclear weapons, material and expertise on the black market after the collapse of the Soviet Union, according to a senior Egyptian diplomat.

President Hosni Mubarak turned down the offer, but the incident raises new questions over what nuclear sales were made by the other states or groups in the chaos of the early 1990s in Russia and the former Soviet republics.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/19/wikileaks-cables-egypt-nuclear-weapons

 

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The European Central Bank’s (ECB) hopes for a euro area recovery in the coming years may lack substance, some of its board members have suggested.

The central bank has raised its forecasts for growth and inflation in the years to come, but some members of its governing council suggested that the projections were too optimistic. Stimulative monetary policy may not still be in play in two years time, some members remarked, according to deliberations of the committee’s March meeting.

The central bank’s estimates have been considered optimistic by external observers, as private forecasters remain more sanguine about the euro area’s prospects. Members warned that growth projections for 2017 relied on several elements which might turn out to be less supportive than the forecasts assumed.

Peter Praet, the ECB’s chief economist, said that the governing council had to remain cautious “given the very early stages of the economic recovery and the high degree of uncertainty,” particular when dealing with forecasts running up to 2017.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ts-are-too-optimistic-ECB-officials-warn.html

Quando se fala em 'recuperação económica' 7 anos após a primeira crise e 4 anos depois da segunda... só isso devia ser um grande sinal de perigo.

Muslims will nearly double their numbers in Europe – to more than 10% – by 2050 and will outnumber Christians worldwide by 2070, according to a new forecast of the growth of religions around the world.

The report, by Pew Research Center, also predicts that Muslims will become the second-largest religious group in the US – at 2.1% – by 2050.

Europe’s Muslim population, boosted by large families and immigration, will nearly double, from less than 6% (43 million people) in 2010 to more than 10% (71 million people) in 2050, the forecast estimates.

High fertility coupled with falling infant mortality rates bode well for Christianity and Islam in the developing world, and researchers predict that four of every 10 Christians in the world will live by the middle of the century in sub-Saharan countries, where women on average have twice as many children as in North America and three times as many as in Europe.

The young religious people of the developing world contrast sharply with ageing and increasingly secular westerners content to keep their families small.

Europe, the only region whose total population is projected to shrink, will see its Christian population diminish by 100 million people to about 65%, according to the report.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/02/muslim-population-growth-christians-religion-pew

Tendo em conta o crescente e persistente radicalismo islâmico, aliado à globalização dos conflitos, prevejo uma crescente instabilidade civil na Europa. Algo que será propício ao estabelecimento de estados totalitários. A adesão da Turquia na UE acelerará o processo. Ainda vão usar as pesquisas da internet do piloto da germanwings para justificar a espionagem informática.

 

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Um ataque da milícia islamista Al-Shabab matou pelo menos 147 pessoas numa universidade em Garissa, no Nordeste do Quénia. Os números foram avançados pelo órgão governamental de gestão de crise pouco depois de ter terminado o cerco militar às instalações da universidade e, com ele, o sequestro de centenas de estudantes. De acordo com o Centro Nacional de Operações de Desastre do Quénia, foram resgatados todos os 587 estudantes que estavam nas instalações da universidade nesta quinta-feira.

O grupo armado com ligações à Al-Qaeda e com base na Somália (a 150 quilómetros de Garissa) atacou as instalações da universidade durante a madrugada. No pico das operações, quando apenas se contavam no exterior 280 dos 587 estudantes (então falava-se de 815, o número total de estudantes da universidade), a milícia extremista afirmou que deixara partir os muçulmanos e que fizera apenas reféns cristãos. Ao final da manhã, o porta-voz da Al-Shabab dizia que havia “muitos corpos de cristãos dentro do edifício”.

http://www.publico.pt/mundo/noticia/grupo-armado-lanca-ataque-contra-universidade-no-quenia-1691135