StormRic
Furacão
E vai gastando a energia latente da época, longe de terra por enquanto, que é o ideal.
Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2025)
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Seguimento Meteorológico: Litoral Norte | Interior Norte e Centro | Litoral Centro | Sul | Açores e Madeira | Livre
Previsões: Curto e médio prazo: até 2 semanas | Longo prazo: mensal e sazonal (Regras e links úteis nos 1ºs posts)
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E vai gastando a energia latente da época, longe de terra por enquanto, que é o ideal.
Quanto mais intenso estiver, mais agrestes terão as seguintes condições que ser para enfraquecê-lo em tempo útil.
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O trajeto previsto é pouco comum tendo em conta a posição (aviso 23). Felizmente a distância para as ilhas é enorme.
StormRic
Furacão
Aviso 25 para o furacão Gabrielle: continua Cat.4, ventos máximos 222 Km/h, rajadas máximas 268 Km/h.
À chegada aos Açores (6ªfeira dia 26 às 00:00utc), a previsão a 72 horas é ainda de furacão, Cat.1 de 70 nós, ventos máximos 130 Km/h, rajadas máximas 157 Km/h.
À chegada aos Açores (6ªfeira dia 26 às 00:00utc), a previsão a 72 horas é ainda de furacão, Cat.1 de 70 nós, ventos máximos 130 Km/h, rajadas máximas 157 Km/h.
022
WTNT42 KNHC 230234
TCDAT2
Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025
Gabrielle remains a formidable Category-4 hurricane with a
well-defined 15 n-mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops
of near -70 deg C. The current intensity estimate is held at 120
kt, which is slightly higher than the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates of 115 kt from both TAFB and SAB. This is also a blend
of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.
The hurricane has turned toward the northeast and is now moving at
around 040/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the
same as in the previous advisory. Gabrielle should move around the
northwestern side of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next
day or so and then accelerate east-northeastward between the ridge
and the mid-latitude westerlies through about 72 hours. A slight
turn to the northeast ahead of a higher-latitude trough is expected
in 3-4 days. This official track forecast is similar to the
previous one. The latest Google DeepMind forecast is a little
farther north of the model consensus. Simulated satellite imagery
from the global models suggest extratropical transition will occur
on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores.
No significant change in intensity is anticipated into early
Tuesday while Gabrielle remains in a conducive atmospheric and
oceanic environment By late tomorrow and beyond, increasing
vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air and cooler waters should
cause weakening. However, an approaching upper-level trough could
provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle
maintain some of its intensity during the next few days. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
close to the model consensus.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential
wind, rainfall, and wave impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 32.4N 61.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 35.5N 50.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 37.0N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 38.8N 31.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 43.0N 22.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/0000Z 44.0N 16.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
WTNT42 KNHC 230234
TCDAT2
Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 22 2025
Gabrielle remains a formidable Category-4 hurricane with a
well-defined 15 n-mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops
of near -70 deg C. The current intensity estimate is held at 120
kt, which is slightly higher than the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates of 115 kt from both TAFB and SAB. This is also a blend
of objective estimates from UW-CIMSS.
The hurricane has turned toward the northeast and is now moving at
around 040/11 kt. The track forecast philosophy remains about the
same as in the previous advisory. Gabrielle should move around the
northwestern side of a mid-level subtropical ridge during the next
day or so and then accelerate east-northeastward between the ridge
and the mid-latitude westerlies through about 72 hours. A slight
turn to the northeast ahead of a higher-latitude trough is expected
in 3-4 days. This official track forecast is similar to the
previous one. The latest Google DeepMind forecast is a little
farther north of the model consensus. Simulated satellite imagery
from the global models suggest extratropical transition will occur
on Friday while the system is in the vicinity of the Azores.
No significant change in intensity is anticipated into early
Tuesday while Gabrielle remains in a conducive atmospheric and
oceanic environment By late tomorrow and beyond, increasing
vertical wind shear, drier mid-level air and cooler waters should
cause weakening. However, an approaching upper-level trough could
provide enhanced divergence aloft which could help Gabrielle
maintain some of its intensity during the next few days. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and
close to the model consensus.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Swells generated by Gabrielle will continue to affect Bermuda
and the east coast of the United States from North Carolina
northward, as well as Atlantic Canada, during the next couple of
days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
2. Gabrielle is forecast to approach the Azores late on Thursday.
Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Gabrielle
though it is too soon to specify the magnitude of potential
wind, rainfall, and wave impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 23/0300Z 32.4N 61.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 33.5N 59.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 34.8N 55.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 35.5N 50.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 35.9N 44.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 37.0N 37.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 38.8N 31.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 43.0N 22.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 28/0000Z 44.0N 16.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Última edição:
StormRic
Furacão
Aviso 26, tudo igual, 949 hPa.
Mas 70 nós já depois de passar os Açores e 80 nós antes.
Mas 70 nós já depois de passar os Açores e 80 nós antes.
Snifa
Furacão
Snifa
Furacão
O trajeto previsto é pouco comum tendo em conta a posição (aviso 23). Felizmente a distância para as ilhas é enorme.
Aviso 1:
É mesmo incomum.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/| 2025 North Atlantic Summary as of 09 UTC 23 September 2025 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Named Storms (vs 1991-2020 Normal) | Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) | Major Hurricanes (vs 1991-2020 Normal) | Total ACE (x104 kt2) (% Difference of 1991-2020 Normal) | Total Direct Deaths | Total U.S. Damage ($million) |
| 7 (-3) | 2 (-2) | 2 (0) | 50.2 (-41% ) | 0 | 0 |
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/outlooks/Background.htmlRelativamente normal no Outono mas dado estarmos ainda em período estival com incêndios ainda a decorrer no continente, desde a Ophelia em 2017, fico sempre um pouco nervoso neste tipo de situação de vento forte sem ter havido antes chuva outonal em boa parte do país.
Pormenor curioso e talvez inédito, aparentemente o primeiro e (até agora) único "hurricane watch" oficial desta temporada é para os Açores.
lserpa
Cumulonimbus
lserpa
Cumulonimbus
Entretanto, a última saída do ECMWF parece-me mais realista.
O centro passaria mais próximo do grupo Ocidental, com precipitação excessiva nestas ilhas. O núcleo da tempestade estaria aberto a sul e a norte, sendo já claramente influenciado pelo cavado. Uma tempestade já em avançada transição. Traria vento máximo de 100km/h e rajadas na ordem dos 120km/h junto ao centro. Depois disso, o ECMWF espeta mais um Stingjet próximo da graciosa, com rajadas de ~180km/h.
Facto, a circulação volta a fechar-se a sul, mas, mantendo-se aberta a nordeste nessa fase.
O centro passaria mais próximo do grupo Ocidental, com precipitação excessiva nestas ilhas. O núcleo da tempestade estaria aberto a sul e a norte, sendo já claramente influenciado pelo cavado. Uma tempestade já em avançada transição. Traria vento máximo de 100km/h e rajadas na ordem dos 120km/h junto ao centro. Depois disso, o ECMWF espeta mais um Stingjet próximo da graciosa, com rajadas de ~180km/h.
Facto, a circulação volta a fechar-se a sul, mas, mantendo-se aberta a nordeste nessa fase.
Meninodasnuvens
Nimbostratus
StormRic
Furacão
E não será sequer comparável com o Gong (2013).Certo, mas o trajeto do Ophelia foi de Sul