Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2025)

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Meninodasnuvens disse:
Como é que consigo ver o mapa assim?
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A run das 00z mete a parte mais intensa a atingir o Grupo Central, com rajadas na ordem dos 200km/h nas ilhas e 230km/h no mar (o que pode ser uma "ilusão" porque entre os steps podem estar previstos valores superiores a 200km/h nas ilhas).

De qualquer forma, o AROME do IPMA volta e meia exagera um bocado nas suas previsões. Vamos ver o que irá acontecer.
 
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Estatísticas preliminares, sujeitas a posterior revisão, de alguns modelos.

99Gbvc5.png


T7So6VA.png


HMON e o HWRF já não são atualizados, mas ainda utilizados, tendo sido substituídos pelo HFSA/B.

Exemplo de previsão vs observação (preto):

qmkkjsK.png
 
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000
WTNT42 KNHC 260244
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025
300 AM GMT Fri Sep 26 2025

A patch of deep convection has redeveloped well to the northeast of
Gabrielle's center, most likely along an occluded frontal boundary
that is forming in the storm's immediate vicinity. A 2330 UTC ASCAT
pass showed winds as high as 45 kt in the southeastern quadrant--
slightly lower than the ASCAT pass from 12 hours ago--and therefore
the current intensity is estimated to be 55 kt. Strong winds began
spreading across the central Azores a few hours ago, with
hurricane-force gusts being reported at some elevated sites on those
islands. Strong winds are expected to spread to the southeastern
Azores within the next couple of hours.

The current motion is east-northeastward, or 070 degrees at 25
kt. Gabrielle's center is forecast to move across the Azores over
the next several hours and then continue on a more-or-less eastward
track but at a slower speed for the next couple of days while
approaching the coast of Portugal. An even slower southeastward to
southward motion is expected in 3 to 4 days while the low decays
near southern Portugal and northern Morocco.

Gabrielle could re-intensify slightly today until extratropical
transition is completed, with the strongest winds shifting from the
southeastern quadrant to the northwestern quadrant. A gradual
decrease in winds is expected after 24 hours, and the NHC intensity
forecast is close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF solutions.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the islands of the
Azores. The NHC will continue to issue forecasts on Gabrielle as a
post-tropical cyclone until the threat to the Azores has ended.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Gabrielle is expected to produce tropical storm conditions,
with gusts to hurricane force, across the central and southeastern
Azores this morning, with the strongest winds occurring at higher
elevations.

2. A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant
coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in the Azores. The
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

3. Heavy rainfall from Gabrielle could produce flash flooding
across the terrain of the central Azores through this morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 37.8N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 26/1200Z 39.0N 24.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 27/0000Z 40.0N 19.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 27/1200Z 40.2N 14.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 28/0000Z 39.3N 11.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 28/1200Z 37.5N 8.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 29/0000Z 36.1N 7.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 30/0000Z 34.2N 7.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

Terá feito "landfall" às 3:20 utc no Faial, segundo observações das EMA do IPMA.
 
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A velocidade do vento registado agora, insere-se dentro dos valores para uma tempestade tropical.
A ver se não aumenta muito mais.


Enviado do meu iPhone usando o Tapatalk
 
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Novo 'Major Hurricane', com rápida intensificação e trajectória bastante semelhante aos anteriores, mas desta vez não poupando a Bermuda e chegando-se mais à costa Leste norte-americana.
Pico de intensidade Domingo 28 de manhã, categoria 4 superior, a 6 nós de ser um Cat.5

000
WTNT43 KNHC 262037
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Fri Sep 26 2025

Satellite data indicate Humberto has strengthened into the third
major hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. The eye of
the hurricane has cleared out this afternoon and is surrounded by a
ring of deep, cold convective cloud tops. Based on these
developments, the latest subjective Dvorak classifications and
objective intensity estimates have risen to 90-102 kt. The initial
intensity of Humberto is set at 100 kt for this advisory. NOAA buoy
41044, located about 50 n mi southwest of the center, has reported
falling pressures and tropical-storm-force gusts this afternoon.


Humberto remains in a low shear environment over very warm
sea-surface temperatures, and its well-defined inner core structure
appears conducive to further intensification unless an eyewall
replacement cycle occurs. The latest intensity guidance favors
continued strengthening, and this is reflected in the updated NHC
forecast. There are differences noted in the upper-air pattern of
the global models later in the period, likely related to the
evolution and future path of Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. But in
general, increasing deep-layer shear over the hurricane should
induce at least gradual weakening by early next week. Although the
peak winds are forecast to decrease, the wind field is expected to
expand as Humberto gains latitude and curves around Bermuda at days
3-5.

The hurricane is moving slowly northwestward (295/4 kt). A slow
westward to west-northwestward motion should continue through the
next day or so, followed by a turn toward the northwest later this
weekend with a gradual increase in forward speed as a subtropical
ridge slides eastward over the central Atlantic. A slight southward
adjustment was made to the near-term NHC track forecast based on
today's trends, but otherwise this portion of the forecast is
similar to the previous one. Later in the period, the models are
fairly consistent on a sharp recurvature of the hurricane between
the ridge and an upper trough digging over the northwestern
Atlantic, though there are larger along-track speed differences
noted. This part of the forecast generally lies between the
multi-model consensus aids and the Google DeepMind solution.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 22.3N 58.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 22.4N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 22.8N 60.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 23.4N 62.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 24.6N 64.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 26.0N 66.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 27.7N 67.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 31.7N 68.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 35.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

Humberto_track_adv9.webp



 
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Humberto já é categoria 4; tem previsão de categoria 5, 140 nós.
A intensificação rápida vai continuar e às 00:00utc deste Domingo será Cat.5 com mais de 310 Km/h de rajadas máximas e 260 Km/h de ventos máximos sustentados. A partir dessa altura vai diminuir devagar a intensidade dos ventos e só na 4ªfeira terá descido dos 100 nós de vento sustentado, mantendo-se longe de terra.

Humberto_track_adv10_zoom.webp
 
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O fenomenal Humberto é categoria 5 e ainda tem previsão de se intensificar até 145 nós e manter-se em Cat.5 até às 18:00utc de hoje.

Humberto_track_adv13_zoom.webp



O NHC prevê que faça a transição pós-tropical a menos de 48 horas depois de ainda ser Major Hurricane.
A trajectória prevista parece indicar que passará a noroeste/norte dos Açores, sem fazer landfall em local algum mas passando perto a Oeste da Bermuda.
Humberto_track_adv13.webp


000
WTNT43 KNHC 272044
TCDAT3

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082025
500 PM AST Sat Sep 27 2025

Humberto has quickly strengthened during the past several hours. A
very symmetric ring of cloud tops colder than -70 deg C now
surrounds the clear eye of the hurricane. At 1800 UTC, the TAFB
subjective Dvorak analysis was 7.0/140 kt. Most of the objective
techniques like the UW-CIMSS ADT and AIDT, as well as the SAB
subjective Dvorak fix supported a slightly lower intensity, closer
to 130 kt. However, since that time, cloud tops around Humberto
have gotten colder and the objective estimates have increased.
Therefore, the intensity has been set at 140 kt, making Humberto the
second category 5 hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season.

Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Internal factors
like eyewall replacement cycles will likely dominate Humberto's
intensity for the next day or two, so fluctuations in maximum wind
speeds are expected. All of the intensity guidance indicates that
some slow weakening is expected to begin by Monday, before Humberto
begins to interact with a mid-latitude trough on Tuesday. The
cyclone should then begin its extratropical transition shortly
thereafter, resulting in a quicker decrease in maximum winds but an
expansion of the overall wind field. Overall, little change was
needed to the official forecast aside from showing a higher
intensity for the first day or two.

Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast.
Humberto is moving slightly faster, but westward, near 9 kt. The
hurricane is still forecast to move around the subtropical ridge for
the next few days before it interacts with the aforementioned trough
and accelerates quickly northeastward. The spread in the model track
guidance has increased since the last advisory, particularly with
regard to how fast Humberto will accelerate northeastward in 4 or 5
days. Confidence in that aspect of the forecast has therefore
decreased, even though little change was made to the official
forecast. The NHC forecast remains generally based on a blend of the
GDMI, the AIGEFS and HCCA.

[...]

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Bookbinder

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 22.9N 61.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.5N 62.7W 145 KT 165 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 24.7N 64.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 26.2N 66.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 28.0N 67.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 30.0N 68.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 32.1N 68.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 36.1N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 42.5N 46.5W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
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O Atlântico parece estar a "ferver".

Temos o Humberto como furacão de categoria 4 (forte) que poderá atingir a Bermuda como Major ou limite superior de categoria 2, já temos em perspectiva outra tempestade que deverá chegar a furacão em 2-3 dias (encostando ao leste dos EUA e derivando para a Bermuda possivelmente como furacão também - se se confirmarem as 2 tempestades naquele arquipélago em cerca de 48h (4ª feira a 6ª feira) a situação poderá ser muito má.
A sair de África parece que temos uma onda tropical prometedora...
Por último, temos um núcleo de instabilidade a SO dos Açores, já está há bastantes horas ali, com uma pluma tropical a passar nos Açores e continente - ligada a Gabrielle. Não me admiraria aparecer nos próximos mapas com potencial baixo de formação de um "Ct"...


Eumetsat.webp


Aqui vemos o Humberto com um olho bem definido, e em cima de Cuba a Depressão Tropical Nine:
Eumetsat2.webp


Cone de previsão do Humberto:
280855_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.webp


Cone de previsão da Depressão tropical Nine:
280854_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.webp
 
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2025 North Atlantic Summary as of 09 UTC 28 September 2025
Named Storms
(vs 1991-2020 Normal)		Hurricanes
(vs 1991-2020 Normal)		Major Hurricanes
(vs 1991-2020 Normal)		Total ACE (x104 kt2)
(% Difference of 1991-2020 Normal)		Total Direct
Deaths		Total U.S.
Damage
($million)
8 (-2)3 (-2)3 (+1)71.8 (-22% )00

Provavelmente ainda hoje se chegará aos 73 de ACE

The 1991-2020 mean value of the ACE index is 122.1 x 104 kt2, and the median value is 125.5 x 104 kt2. With most of 1991-2020 being in an active era, using ACE values from 1951-2020 is more representative of the possible ranges of activity that can result in similar ACE values. The 1951-2020 ACE median is 96.7 x 104 kt2
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A near-normal season will typically have an ACE range of 73-126 x 104 kt2 (corresponding to approximately 75%-130% of the 1951-2020 median).
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