TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102007
1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 21 2007
...SHORT-LIVED DEPRESSION WEAKENS AS IT MOVES INLAND...
AT 1000 PM CDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS
LOCATED INLAND NEAR LATITUDE 30.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST OR
ABOUT 10 MILES... 15 KM...NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA AND ABOUT
10 MILES ... 15 KM...NORTHEAST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA.
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR.
A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK
THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER LAND.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...CAN BE EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEPRESSION.
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA...THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
REPEATING THE 1000 PM CDT POSITION...30.6 N...87.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL
PREDICTION CENTER...UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT5 AND WMO HEADER WTNT35
KWNH...BEGINNING AT 400 AM CDT.
CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA BUT THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND SURFACES PRESSURES
ARE NOT FALLING AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW.
A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE OF WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVES. SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
A NEARLY STATIONARY NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA. THERE HAS BEEN NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE YESTERDAY AND CONDITIONS
ARE BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT.
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED ABOUT
825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL OR A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE BEFORE IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS
Boa Tarde Pessoal,
Dia 24 irei para a Jamaica, pelo site accuweather, não se prevê nada, mas gostava de pedir opinião a quem está mais em cima do assunto.
Cumps
O Atlantico está animado, o NHC tem comentários sobre 5 (!!!!) áreas distintas no Outlook!!!!
...SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS FAR FROM LAND IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 36.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.1 WEST OR ABOUT
1060 MILES...1705 KM...WEST OF THE AZORES.
THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY STATIONARY...BUT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A
SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH LATER TODAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED TONIGHT. ON THIS TRACK THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING
OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WELL TO THE
WEST OF THE AZORES.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS
THE DEPRESSION GAINS MORE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS...AND IT COULD
BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...36.2 N...46.1 W. MOVEMENT...
STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE...1007 MB.
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.
$$
FORECASTER KNABB
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE HAVE BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 550 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM IS
BECOMING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED BUT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF
ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR.
THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PASSING ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS REMAINS WELL-ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
15 MPH DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
Bom dia, perante o desenvolvimento que se tem notado nas ultimas semanas acham que o suposto"jerry" tem caracteristicas diferentes dos outros(93l,94l)?este vai mesmo chegar com força? e em que direcção especifica ? é que amanhã ao 1/2dia vou voar para punta cana e agora fiquei mais preocupada.obrigado
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN
COAST OF THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS
SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA...AND AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON STANDBY TO INVESTIGATE THIS
SYSTEM LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT COULD STILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE IS
LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM
HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION TODAY...BUT COULD STILL DEVELOP
INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS LOCATED ABOUT 565 NM SSW OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 8N31W. THIS LARGE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
SHOW SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10-15 KT. THE MOST CONCENTRATED AREA
OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS S OF THE CENTER FROM 5N-8N
BETWEEN 28W-35W. ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N-15N BETWEEN 26W-36W. THIS IS ONE OF THE MORE
CLASSIC LOOKING CAPE VERDE SYSTEMS WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF WEEKS.
A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED ALONG 57W OR ABOUT 175
NM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE WAVE IS REPRESENTED
WELL BY THE SURROUNDING SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND A QUIKSCAT
PASS FROM 23/2200 UTC. THIS WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER
AND TSTM ACTIVITY FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 53W-62W. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SPREAD THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THROUGH MONDAY BRINGING
SQUALLY WEATHER TO THE AREA...AND POSSIBLY TO THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS BY TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST DAY...BUT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.