Previsão e Seguimento Furacões (Pacífico Leste e Central 2018)

Tópico em 'Tempo Tropical' iniciado por luismeteo3 4 Jul 2018 às 20:16.

  1. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
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    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    14,800
    Local:
    Fatima


     
    #136 luismeteo3, 22 Out 2018 às 19:04
    Última edição: 22 Out 2018 às 19:11
    Cinza gostou disto.
  2. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    14,800
    Local:
    Fatima
  3. Éire

    Éire
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    Cirrus

    Registo:
    13 Mar 2008
    Mensagens:
    61
    Local:
    Kildare, Irlanda
    Willa enfraqueceu durante a noite e, seguendo o SHIPS LGEM, o landfall será 90-95 nós (Cat 2-3). Menos severo, mais ainda severo.

    Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
    900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

    Willa's eye is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an
    SSMIS overpass from 0049 UTC showed a remnant inner eye along the
    northern edge of a larger outer eyewall that has taken shape over
    the past few hours. The initial intensity has been lowered to 125 kt
    based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from
    TAFB. Given that the eyewall replacement cycle is well underway and
    that moderate southwesterly shear now affecting the hurricane is
    expected to increase, continued gradual weakening is forecast
    through landfall, and the new NHC intensity forecast through 24
    hours is near or a bit above the FSU Superensemble. Despite the
    forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
    dangerous major hurricane through landfall, and will bring life-
    threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas
    Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico on
    Tuesday. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
    dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
    Moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to spread
    northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a
    swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

    The initial motion estimate remains northward, or 360/08. The track
    forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Willa is expected to
    gradually recurve as it is steered by a large mid-level ridge
    centered to the east and a shortwave trough approaching from the
    northwest. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly
    left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion and
    lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near the HCCA
    consensus aid. There continue to be differences in the forward speed
    of the cyclone as it approaches the coast, and the NHC forecast
    remains close to the forward speed of the consensus aids.

    Key Messages:

    1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
    coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa
    and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
    path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
    protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
    officials.

    2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
    area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
    threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
    Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
    mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

    3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
    flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
    west-central Mexico.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0300Z 20.5N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
    12H 23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
    24H 24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
    36H 24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
    luismeteo3 gostou disto.
  4. Éire

    Éire
    Expand Collapse
    Cirrus

    Registo:
    13 Mar 2008
    Mensagens:
    61
    Local:
    Kildare, Irlanda
    Willa enfraqueceu durante a noite e o landfall, segundo o SHIPS LGEM, será 90-95 nós (Cat 2-3). Menos severo, mais ainda severo.

    Hurricane Willa Discussion Number 12
    NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP242018
    900 PM MDT Mon Oct 22 2018

    Willa's eye is no longer apparent in geostationary imagery, but an
    SSMIS overpass from 0049 UTC showed a remnant inner eye along the
    northern edge of a larger outer eyewall that has taken shape over
    the past few hours. The initial intensity has been lowered to 125 kt
    based on a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T and CI numbers from
    TAFB. Given that the eyewall replacement cycle is well underway and
    that moderate southwesterly shear now affecting the hurricane is
    expected to increase, continued gradual weakening is forecast
    through landfall, and the new NHC intensity forecast through 24
    hours is near or a bit above the FSU Superensemble. Despite the
    forecast decrease in the peak winds, Willa is expected to remain a
    dangerous major hurricane through landfall, and will bring life-
    threatening storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards to Las Islas
    Marias and portions of west-central and southwestern Mexico on
    Tuesday. After moving inland, Willa will rapidly weaken, with
    dissipation forecast by Wednesday over the high terrain of Mexico.
    Moisture from the remnants of Willa is forecast to spread
    northeastward over northern Mexico and portions of Texas where a
    swath of heavy rainfall is expected midweek.

    The initial motion estimate remains northward, or 360/08. The track
    forecast reasoning remains unchanged, as Willa is expected to
    gradually recurve as it is steered by a large mid-level ridge
    centered to the east and a shortwave trough approaching from the
    northwest. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly
    left of the previous one due to the initial position and motion and
    lies along the eastern edge of the guidance envelope near the HCCA
    consensus aid. There continue to be differences in the forward speed
    of the cyclone as it approaches the coast, and the NHC forecast
    remains close to the forward speed of the consensus aids.

    Key Messages:

    1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected Tuesday along the
    coasts of the Isla Marias, and along the coast of southern Sinaloa
    and Nayarit states in west-central and southwestern Mexico near the
    path of Willa. Residents should rush preparations to completion to
    protect life and property and follow any advice given by local
    officials.

    2. Everyone in the Isla Marias, and within the hurricane warning
    area along the coast of west-central Mexico should prepare for life-
    threatening major hurricane winds associated with the core of
    Willa. Hurricane force winds will also extend inland across the
    mountainous areas of west-central Mexico as Willa moves inland.

    3. Heavy rainfall from Willa is likely to produce life-threatening
    flash flooding and landslides over much of southwestern and
    west-central Mexico.

    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0300Z 20.5N 107.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
    12H 23/1200Z 21.5N 106.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
    24H 24/0000Z 23.0N 105.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
    36H 24/1200Z 25.3N 102.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
    48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED
     
  5. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    14,800
    Local:
    Fatima
  6. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    14,800
    Local:
    Fatima
  7. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    14,800
    Local:
    Fatima
    Hurricane Willa
    6:00 AM MDT Tue Oct 23
    Location: 21.1°N 107.1°W
    Moving: N at 5 mph
    Min pressure: 945 mb
    Max sustained: 130 mph


    FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

    INIT 23/0900Z 20.8N 107.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
    12H 23/1800Z 22.0N 106.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
    24H 24/0600Z 23.8N 104.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
    36H 24/1800Z 25.8N 102.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
    48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

    [​IMG]
     
    #142 luismeteo3, 23 Out 2018 às 14:57
    Última edição: 23 Out 2018 às 15:10
  8. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    14,800
    Local:
    Fatima
  9. Éire

    Éire
    Expand Collapse
    Cirrus

    Registo:
    13 Mar 2008
    Mensagens:
    61
    Local:
    Kildare, Irlanda
  10. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    14,800
    Local:
    Fatima
  11. luismeteo3

    luismeteo3
    Expand Collapse
    Furacão

    Registo:
    14 Dez 2015
    Mensagens:
    14,800
    Local:
    Fatima

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