Previsão e Seguimento Tufões (Pacífico Oeste 2018)

[Felipe Freitas]

Tufão Maria fez landfall em Miyakojima, Japão.
A pressão mínima chegou a 945 mbar.

METAR (ROMY) - 945 mb
METAR: ROMY 100700Z 11009KT 070V140 2000 R22/0900V1600U -SHRA BR FEW004 BKN012 27/27 Q0945

 

[Felipe Freitas]

Vídeos

No olho:
https://www.pscp.tv/ExtremeStorms/1djGXnyBZnExZ



Sol no momento em que o olho passava sobre a ilha.

 

[Felipe Freitas]

Passagem do tufão:

 

[Felipe Freitas]

Estação de Miyakojima, Japão.
Em vermelho quando o olho passou sobre a ilha.





O tufão e bem mais fraco que previsto.
As maiores rajadas ficaram ao redor de 150/160 km/h.
Os ventos sustentados mostram que o ciclone era categoria 1 e não 3.

 

[Felipe Freitas]

Taiwan já começou a sentir os efeitos do ciclone.
Alguns locais já acumulam mais de 100 mm, sendo o maior acumulado por enquanto é de 117 mm em Lanshengchiao.
Em Pengchiayu as rajadas de vento já chegam a 126 km/h.

Taiwan radar: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/
Taiwan chuva: https://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/rainfall/ha_100.htm

 

[luismeteo3]

Isto promete...

 

[luismeteo3]

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #27 - 3:00 AM JST July 21 2018
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM AMPIL (T1810)
===========================================================
130 km east southeast of Naha (Okinawa Prefecture)

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Ampil (985 hPa) located at 25.6N 129.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 14 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
270 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0

Forecast and Intensity
======================
24 HRS: 29.7N 123.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) East China Sea
48 HRS: 32.6N 118.8E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Over land Central China
72 HRS: 35.2N 115.6E - Tropical Depression Over land Northern China

-------------------------------------

Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 18N 117E ESE SLOWLY.

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[rokleon]

Typhoon Shanshan to threaten Japan next week

There are two scenarios for Shanshan’s track next week, each with significantly different impacts to Japan.
The first scenario would take Shanshan, as a powerful typhoon, westward into or near the east coast of Honshu. The storm could reach a strength equal to a Category 2 hurricane in the Atlantic and east Pacific oceans.
This would bring significant impacts to the Japan mainland with the greatest risk for damaging winds and flooding rainfall across eastern and northern Honshu, including the Greater Tokyo Area.

The other scenario would take Shanshan northward more quickly, allowing it to continue on a north to northeast track through the middle of next week and keeping it several hundred miles to the east of Japan.
This would still result in rough seas and surf around Japan while keeping the threat for damaging winds offshore.
As the storm begins to approach eastern Japan early next week, rough seas and surf will begin to reach the eastern coastline of Japan and also threaten shipping interests in the region.

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]

 

[luismeteo3]