Previsão e Seguimento Tufões (Pacífico Oeste 2019)

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Ciclone Tropical Sarai

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Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #8 - 6:00 AM FST December 27 2019
TROPICAL CYCLONE SARAI, CATEGORY ONE (03F)
=========================================================
northwest of Fiji (Viti Levu)
west northwest of Kavadu

A GALE WARNING in force for Vanua Levu, Taveuni and nearby smaller islands, Yasawa and Mamanuca group, Kadavu, Lomaiviti group, Viti Levu and nearby smaller islands

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Sarai, Category One (995 hPa) located at 15.6S 175.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. Position POOR based on HIMAWARI-8 enhanced infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. The depression is reported as moving south southwest at 12 knots.

Gale Force Winds
===================
240 nm from the center in northeastern quadrant
240 nm from the center in southeastern quadrant
150 nm from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 nm from the center in northwestern quadrant

Deep convection wrapping onto supposed low level circulation center with overall organisation improving. Outflow is good in all channels. System lies under an upper ridge in a low sheared environment with moderate upper divergence. System steered southwards but expected to gradually turn southeast along the northern periphery of the upper jet stream. Cyclonic circulation extends upto 500HPA. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.65 wrap on LOG10 spiral yields a DT of 3.0. MET and PT agree. Final Dvorak number based on DT.

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Global models move the system in a southwards track with further intensification before turning southeast.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 17.4S 175.8E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS 18.6S 176.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 19.5S 178.8E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
 
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