O cisalhamento é muito elevado, inviabilizando a ocorrência de um furacão. Ainda assim, não se pode excluir uma TT, que poderia ser na mesma desastroso.
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Estamos a falar de um potencial cenário mas só daqui a uma semana. Não vale a pena sofrer por antecipação já que ainda existe grandes discrepâncias nos modelos no que toca à rota da tempestade ( ou se ela sequer resiste à chegada a águas madeirenses). Quando houver mais confiança as autoridades emitirão comunicado.
However, by 36 h, nearly all of the dynamical models, both global and regional, forecast that Leslie will begin to restrengthen. On the other hand, the statistical-dynamical models do not forecast much change through day 5. The NHC forecast has been adjusted a little higher to keep it close to the intensity consensus, and I can't rule out that Leslie could become a hurricane again at some point during the coming week.
The track model spread is high from the very beginning of the forecast (...) The track forecast variance stems from differences in how quickly the models show Leslie separating from a mid-level trough to its north, if at all, and by day 5, the GFS and ECMWF solutions vary by about 750 n mi. At this point, I don't have a good reason to pick one solution over another, and it should be noted that based on the ECMWF ensemble tracks, there is a whole spectrum of possible solutions between these extremes.
Beyond 48 h, the intensity guidance is now in better agreement that some intensification will occur, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane once again by the end of the week.
Most of the global models still forecast that Leslie will separate from the trough in a few days and turn southeastward, and there are still large differences on exactly when that will occur. The deterministic runs of the GFS and ECMWF have come into better agreement on the future track of Leslie, but the ensembles of those models indicate that the range of possible tracks hasn't actually decreased. Confidence in the track forecast therefore remains quite low.
Models continue to be in poor agreement on whether that trough will accelerate Leslie quickly to the northeast at long range or drop the cyclone to the southwest of Portugal. The recent GFS-based guidance has generally shifted southward and is slower, more in line with the 12Z UK/ECMWF models. The new NHC forecast follows that trend, but is still on the northern side of the consensus due to continuity concerns, and additional southward adjustments could be required on later advisories.
By day 5, increasing shear and cold waters should weaken Leslie, and it will probably lose convection to transition into a post-tropical cyclone.