Seguimento Europa - 2008

[Gerofil]

Orages et inondations dans le Nord de l'Italie

Le Nord de l'Italie et plus particulièrement la région de Gènes a été touchée par de violents orages qui ont causé des inondations et fait une victime. Les orages ont été accompagnés par des pluies diluviennes et localement de fortes averses de grêle.

Les services météorologiques ont indiqué avoir enregistré entre 70 et 80 mm de précipitations en moins de 1 h 30 dans les secteurs de Cornigliano et Sampierdarena Certosa à l'Ouest de Gènes. Dans le domaine de Recco (Est de Gène), il est tombé 80 mm en 1h00.

Ces orages s'inscrivent dans un contexte météorologique qui a vu une dépression formée en mer Méditerranée et centrée sur le Golfe de Gène qui a dirigé un flux d'air doux et humide de secteur sud sur le Nord de la péninsule Italienne. Depuis une semaine, des cumuls de 300 mm ont été enregistrés dans l'agglomération.

Plus au Sud, Rome a aussi essuyé de violents orages accompagnés de fortes bourrasques de vent. Plusieurs arbres ont été déracinés. Un jeune garçon a été foudroyé et est décédé. La victime s'était abrité sous arbre lorsque celui-ci a été touché par la foudre. Plusieurs quartiers de la ville ont subi des inondations. Les pompiers sont intervenu une centaine de fois.

Catastrophes

 

[Gerofil]

Mau tempo em França deixa milhares de habitantes sem água potável

As cheias do Rio Loire que atingiram esta semana o Centro de França já deixaram milhares de pessoas sem água potável, algo que surgiu na sequência de fortes inundações em três zonas de captação.
O mau tempo que se tem feito sentir em diversas regiões do Centro do país, atingiu o máximo de pluvosidade esta quinta-feira, sobretudo, nas cidades de Nevers e Fourchambault.
O departamento francês de Loire está entre os que se mantêm em «alerta laranja» devido ao risco de inundações, refere a Renascença.

Fábrica de Conteúdos

 

[Chasing Thunder]

Aviso do Estofex para Hoje dia 8 de Novembro na Europa.



SYNOPSIS

Dominant feature this period will be an intense upper jet streak moving towards the British Isles/Channel region until early Sunday morning. A fairly intense SFC will develop underneath its left-exit region W of the British Isles at the periphery of a large-scale quasi-stationary SFC low complex over the N Atlantic.
A weak upper trough persists over the central Mediterranean while a deep-layer high pressure area covers the eastern portions of Europe. Quiescent SFC conditions prevail over the Mediterranean regions.

DISCUSSION

... British Isles ...

It seems that some convective potential will materialize along the cold front trailing from the SFC low which is expected to skirt the N British Isles during the second half of the period. Large front-normal upper flow component seems to be indicative of a dry-air intrusion overspreading the SFC front, which could play a role in destabilizing the immediate pre-frontal air mass. GFS indicates weak ICAPE and marginally deep instability for thunderstorms. It seems that narrow and comparatively shallow line segments of convection may occur along the SFC cold front over the British Isles and extreme NW France late on Saturday. Shear profiles will be quite robust, so that the convection will likely be associated with very gusty winds and possibly an isolated tornado or two.

However, substantial uncertainty remains on whether sufficiently deep convection will develop along the front at all, as evolution of instability is simulated somewhat inconsistently. Nonetheless, will place a marginal level-one area where deep-layer ascent appears to be most favorable for sustaining an unstable stratification.

In the wake of the front, deep convective mixing should be present, partly being appreciably sheared. This may aid in the formation of shallow mesocyclones and line segments, capable mainly of severe wind gusts and small hail.

... central Mediterranean ...

It seems that the nearly saturated Mediterranean boundary layer will maintain rather large low-level buoyancy, which suggests that a few waterspouts may occur if a misoscale vorticity source is encountered. However, generally weak low-level lapse rates seem to limit allover waterspout threat somewhat, and a categorical risk area does not seem to be warranted at the moment.

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[AnDré]

Algumas imagens de neve apartir do canal visível do satélite, esta manhã:

Alpes:

Pirenéus:

Serra Nevada:

 

[Daniel Vilão]

Aviso do Estofex para Hoje dia 8 de Novembro na Europa.

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Sim, parece que a maior agitação irá mesmo ter lugar no Norte de França e Ilhas Britânicas.
Aguardemos por notícias.

 

[nimboestrato]

Que rico Domingo haveríamos de ter se fôssemos ,irlandeses,escoceses ou ingleses do oeste...

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Às vezes penso mesmo em emigrar.
Mas depois também penso na ausência do sol de que que estes senhores tanto sofrem durante o ano.

 

[AnDré]

Que rico Domingo haveríamos de ter se fôssemos ,irlandeses,escoceses ou ingleses do oeste...

Às vezes penso mesmo em emigrar.
Mas depois também penso na ausência do sol de que que estes senhores tanto sofrem durante o ano.

E continua a cavar...

É verdade nimboestrato.
A ausência de sol nesses países chega a ser depressiva.
Apesar da monotonia meteorológica que tantas vezes nos afecta, eu gosto do nosso sol de inverno. É óptimo para um bom passeio

 

[Vince]

Está a chover muito nalgumas regiões do sul de Inglaterra

Radar:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/radar/index.html

 

[nimboestrato]

E para além da precipitação o vento também sopra forte numa vasta região da Europa Ocidental.
No mapa seguinte estão assinaladas as rajadas máximas na ultima hora 11 / 12 UTC:

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E nós aqui tão paradinhos...

 

[Chasing Thunder]

Aviso do Estofex para hoje dia 12 de Novembro.



SYNOPSIS

A low pressure area on the North Sea and cold upper levels suggest convective tops can reach -50°C and produce thunder. The climatology shows the highest chances for the southern part of the North Sea, which seems likely as a vorticity maximum affects the area. Later during the night a back-bent occlusion drags southward just east of the UK.

The cold front of the low affects Spain, France and Germany, and remains stationary over Poland and the Baltic states.
Renewed destabilization occurs over the northwestern Mediterranean as the upper trough approaches, and over the eastern Mediterranean. The Ionean Sea stabilizes during the day under the influence of a ridge.


DISCUSSION

...Denmark...

A mid level PV anomaly moves through the southern North Sea heading for Denmark. In advance of this feature, in the area of greatest lift, GFS forecasts instability, leading to clustered or linearly organized thunderstorms (EL at -20 to -40°C), probably as a comma cloud. The wind field in which they occur suggests gusts around 20 m/s at the west coast. Since low level and deep layer shear are enhanced to over 12 m/s and 20-25 m/s respectively, and some SREH > 150 m2/s2, there is chance of an isolated tornado as well.


...SW Germany...

A line-echo wave pattern (squall line) will enter Germany at the start of the period, associated with the cold front.
The development of this line corresponds with some signals of most-unstable (or vertically integrated) parcel instability in GFS. Large 0-2 line-normal component of 12-15 m/s is in support of bow echoes. Bowing segments pose a threat of isolated severe gusts (>25 m/s) and in the moderate-strong 0-3 km SREH and 0-1 km shear environment (250 m2/s2 and >15 m/s respectively) and low LCL heights, embedded cells in the line can obtain rotation and produce a tornado. The probability of lightning however seems low and QG vertical motion and SREH are weakening, and flow becomes more parallel to the front.


...Mediterranean Sea...

Waterspouts can occur, especially where soundings indicate good low level buoyancy and near surface lapse rates in a weak convergent wind environment. GFS suggests roughly the best conditions for Ionian Sea in the morning, southern Turkey later in the day, and the northwestern Mediterranean the next morning.

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[ecobcg]

Tornado no Reino Unido

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...s-trail-destruction-rain-winds-batter-UK.html << link com fotos

Freak tornado leaves trail of destruction as rain and winds batter UK
By Andrew Levy

Last updated at 5:01 PM on 11th November 2008
Comments (14) Add to My Stories
The rain was lashing down and the wind was almost enough to sweep you off your feet.
But just as people thought the weather couldn't get any worse, it did - and in spectacular fashion.
A freak tornado formed, leaving a trail of destruction over a 12-mile route and forcing people to flee for their lives to avoid being struck by objects caught up in the twister.
A garden in Pettistree belonging to Maureen and Brian Stollery was left destroyed by the tornado
Others clung on to the nearest fixed object - and hoped it held fast - as they were buffeted by the winds.
The drama suddenly unfolded in south east Suffolk on Monday afternoon and disappeared just as swiftly seconds later.
But evidence it had really happened was all around to see in the devastation it caused to trees and buildings.
Maureen and Brian Stollery of Pettistree witness the tornado destroy their 40ft high fir tree
In the village of Pettistree, Maureen Stollery, 67, watched in horror as her greenhouse was lifted off the ground by the tornado and smashed.
Her 40ft high fir tree was also torn in half, tiles were wrenched off the roof of her garage and her neighbour's teak garden furniture smashed through her fence.
The retired psychiatric nurse, said: 'I could not believe my eyes. Heavy objects were swirling around and flying through the air.
'It was horrendous. Everything just went up in the air. The tornado took out everything in its path.'

In deep water: A car drives through a flooded lane near Maidstone, Kent
The tornado passed right over Leiston High School, according to one member of staff, who reported looking up the swirling storm as it crossed over a skylight.
Bins were also seen flying through the air in the car park and site supervisor Bryan Duncan, 59, narrowly avoided being turned into mincemeat by the heavy doors at the front of the school.
'The doors started banging and I was trying to close them but the pressure of the wind outside was so great I couldn't,' he said.

Brolly trouble: A walker braves the seafront in Brighton
'They flew out of my hands, I stepped back and they flew back towards me with such a force I thought the glass was going to shatter. I had to throw myself out of the way on to the floor.
'I have never had to fight Mother Nature before and it was a scary experience. I have never been so terrified in my life.'
Headteacher Ian Flintoff described it as a 'short-lived but violent episode'.
'Trees were moving around violently and the building shook,' he said.

Gale force: Coastal areas including East Sussex and Kent were hit by 60mph winds
Five miles away in Blaxhall, near Woodbridge, a dog walker found herself clinging to a bush to avoid being carried away.
Clare Borrett, 35, who was chasing after her hat after it was blown off, said: 'I could not stop running because of the wind and it knocked me over on the ground.
'I managed to get up and saw sparks flying from electric cables and thought "This is not good" before stumbling to about 30 yards from my house where I was knocked to the ground again.

Shaken up: Storms batter the entrance to Newhaven harbour in East Sussex
'I had to crawl up a grass verge and throw myself in a hedge, otherwise I think I would have gone up with it.
'It was all over in under a minute. It was really freaky and very scary.'
Tornadoes are a violent, rotating column of air which is in contact with the ground and a cumulonimbus cloud or, occasionally, a cumulus cloud.
They normally form in the shape of a condensation funnel, have a wind speed of between 40mph and 110mph, and travel a few miles before dissipating.

Bursting rivers: The West Midlands, above, was among the worst hit areas
They have been spotted on every continent except Antarctica. Some reach wind speeds of 300mph and stretch more than a mile across.
On one day in September last year, at least 12 tornadoes struck up and down the UK, ripping off roofs and lifting vehicles from the road.
Weather forecasters had warned of the possibility of tornadoes in southern parts of Britain on Monday, although they only materialised in Suffolk.
But it remained unclear last night whether one tornado or a series of them had torn across the county.

Rising waters: Flooding in Pinwall, North Warwickshire
A Met Office spokesman said: 'A very sharp, narrow band of very heavy rain swept through Suffolk. It is the sort of weather conditions where tornadoes can be expected.
'The forecast for the next couple of days is looking much better. Wednesday should be nice.'
The Tornado and Storm Research Organisation said Britain had been averaging around 70 tornadoes each year between 2003 and 2007, although this had dropped to just 20 so far this year.
Spokesman Dr Terence Meaden said: 'We don't know why. There is a long way to go before we understand them.'

London also hit: People struggle with their umbrellas in high winds, as they walk across the Millennium Bridge, towards St. Paul's Cathedral

 

[Mário Barros]

A Europa do norte está literalmente a "assar".

 

[Chasing Thunder]

Bem e Hoje houve festa nas baleares.

 

[Gerofil]

La dépression Chanel et la tempête associé balaie l'Europe du N-O

La forte dépression "Chanel" (960 hpa) centrée sur le Nord l’Écosse a généré de forts vents sur la Grande-Bretagne, la Norvège, les Pays-Bas, le Danemark, l’Irlande, le nord de l’Allemagne et dans une moindre mesure sur le Nord de la France et la Belgique.
Une rafale jusqu’à 151 km/h a été relevée sur les montagnes de Cairngorm Mountain (Écosse). Ailleurs des vitesses élevées ont également été relevées : 134 km/h à Brocken (Allemagne), 114 km/h à Torungen Fyr (Norvège) , 111 km/h sur Grande Dun Fell (Angleterre), 105 km/h à Belmullet (Irlande).
En France, Météo France a relevé 90 km/h à Valenciennes, 82 km/h à Cambrai et 80 km/h à Saint-Quentin, au sommet de la tour Eiffel une rafale de 126 km/h a été mesurée.

Catastrophes Naturelles

Floods and gales batter Britain

Rain and gales blasted much of Britain, with roads flooded across the country. More severe weather is expected today. In Essex, a man was crushed to death on a hospital building site when a gust of wind sent a crane spinning out of control.
A source on the building site at Broomfield Hospital said masonry was being winched up on to the top of one of the new buildings when wind sent the crane spinning round about four times. The source added: “A big block of the masonry flew off the cable and landed on him. There was nothing anyone could do.” In Devon a motorcyclist died in a collision with a car in torrential rain outside Exeter. There were reports of drivers trapped by floodwater in the South West and near Bristol two couples whose cars were swamped had to be rescued. In Swansea a lamppost brought down by gales crashed through the windscreen of a moving car and a passenger was taken to hospital.
There was another narrow escape in Somerset when a five-tonne boulder crushed a garden shed after being forced loose by the intensive rain. The rock fell 18m (60ft) down a cliff face into a garden in Dulverton, destroying the shed and spilling 1,000 litres of flammable heating oil before coming to rest against the rear of the house. The strongest winds were felt on the South Coast, where gusts topped 70mph yesterday, after peaking at 89mph off the Isle of Wight at the weekend. Cross-channel ferry services were disrupted as winds reached severe gale force nine.
In Gloucestershire the downpour brought back memories of last year’s floods as rescue services worked all weekend to prevent a repeat of the devastation. In Wales floods forced schools to close and homes to be evacuated. Flood warnings remain in place for swollen rivers across the country.
Strong winds are likely to continue today, particularly in northwest Scotland, before the worst of the weather eases, with sunny spells predicted for today and tomorrow. The 200 residents of a usually hushed East Suffolk village were left terrified and bewildered when a “twister” roared into Pettistree, near Woodbridge. Trees and electricity lines were ripped out and homes and schools damaged as the freak weather system barrelled towards the East Anglian coast.
The Met Office and storm experts confirmed yesterday that extreme weather fronts in South-East England yesterday afternoon created the perfect conditions for tornadoes. “It was horrendous,” said Maureen Stollery, 67, who watched open-mouthed from her home in the village at about 2pm. “Everything was going round and round. It was spinning the top of a 35ft tree in our garden until it was ripped off. It was actually pulled clean off and the top spun round in the air. “The sound of the wind and the rain was like an apache helicopter. It went very dark and it was raining so much – it was lashing the house. It was much worse than the 1987 storm.”
Fellow villagers Dom and Cherry White agreed that it was the sound that warned them of the approaching storm. “It was as if the walls were going to fall in,” Mrs White told the East Anglian Daily Times. “It was like a twister coming through the garden. We could see it and it was quite extraordinary. We heard the noise first.” About 20 miles nearer the coast, the town of Leiston felt the same powerful force a few minutes later as the storm system swept across Suffolk. Paul Knightley, a severe weather expert from Torro, which monitors the British climate, said: “It’s almost certainly a tornado, there aren’t really any other phenomena that would have left such a narrow path of damage.”

The Peninsula

 

[Chasing Thunder]

Aviso do Estofex para hoje dia 14 de Novembro.



SYNOPSIS

Low geopotential heights over Europe remain as upper trough stalls over SW/CNTRL Europe, starting to close off. Surface pressure raises during the forecast over NW/CNTRL Europe while cold and stable conditions prevail over E-Europe. Main thunderstorm activity will be over the Mediterranean. Rapidly intensifying depression west of Norway shifts eastwards and so does the attendant strong wind field. Quality of airmass and weak convergence signals preclude any thunderstorm area for now with the highest risk of a few strikes just offshore of W-CNTRL Norway after 00Z.

DISCUSSION

... Parts of the Ionian Sea and S-Adriatic Sea ...

Positive tilted upper trough over the W-CNTRL Mediterranean keeps its tilt despite a gradual increase in jet dynamics along its SE quadrant. Intensification of the wind field at mid/upper-levels along the SE quadrant gradually works its way northeastwards, approaching the Ionian Sea after 00Z. As a consequence of the tilt, WAA in terms of a nice EML tongue builds northeastwards, causing lapse rates between 2-4km to increase constantly during the forecast. Latest MC SST image has a belt of 20°C SST along the coastal areas of W-Greece, increasing to well above 20°C towards the south/southwest. Thermal ridge at 850hPa holds steady until 18Z, before weakening quite rapidly, so area of strongest instability release should first concentrate on the mid-levels until 18Z and thereafter should also increase at lowest 3km. At the surface, broad cyclonic vortex, centered over Sardinia/Corsica during the midday hours, sliding southwards betimes, has no real fluctuation in strength, so cold front over Sicily is forecast to spread eastwards quite leisurely, becoming more diffuse somewhere over the central Ionian Sea during the night hours. Nevertheless, this front will be the focus for main initiation. Ahead of this boundary, maximized BL moisture advection beneath steepening lapse rates results in the built up of MLCAPE values in excess of 1-2kJ/kg and this tongue of maximized instability also builds northwards betimes,reaching the S Adriatic Sea during the night hours.

Speed shear will be the main issue as jet streaks not yet emerge out of the base of the upper trough with 0-6km bulk shear oscillating between 10 and 20m/s. However, degree of instability release should offset this negative effect and rapid thunderstorm organisation is expected. Veering with height is pronounced with SRH values up to 300 m^2/s^2 at lowest 3km. Combination of strong directional shear, good instability release at favorable hail growth zone and magnitude of CAPE all favor the risk of large hail and even isolated extreme events will be possible. Best instability stays offshore so this will be of special interest for the coastal areas of W-Greece. The highest tornado risk should evolve during the evening and night onwards, as LL cap weakens, LL lapse rates and in accord the 0-3km CAPE increase. Thunderstorms then also develop over the S/SE Ionian Sea and overall thunderstorm coverage will increase.

Will not go with a level-2 despite the significant hail risk as best environment for large hail could remain capped until the evening hours. However this will be a high-end level -1 due to the combination of an increasing tornado risk and large hail threat. Another uncertainty will be storm mode as slow moving surface front and numerous vort maxima, crossing this boundary during the day, should support a prolonged period of initiation and in combination with only modest DLS, fast storm clustering is not unlikely. An update may become necessary later-on.

... W-CNTRL Mediterranean ...

Continuous re-circulating of well mixed BL air in surface vortex beneath very cold mid-level air results in an extensive area of modest SBCAPE release. Shear remains weak, but LL CAPE release augmented. In addition, during the past 2 days, thunderstorms evolved along persistent and extensive convergence zones, which could serve as foci for enhanced waterspout risk if they set-up again.

After 00Z, surface pressure decreases north of the Algerian coast, also reflected in a maximized cyclonical curved pressure field. Influx of moist air from Sardinia/Corsica enhances instability with an augmented risk of showers/thunderstorms. There will be a tornado risk over a concentrated area along the NE-Coast of Algeria as friction results in an increasing ageostrophic wind component and augmented LL shear. Will not yet issue a level area as instability decreases rapidly inland and plume of most robust instability will come onshore just around 06Z onwards and hence out of the valid time frame.