Seguimento Europa 2009
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Seguimento Meteorológico: Litoral Norte | Interior Norte e Centro | Litoral Centro | Sul | Açores e Madeira | Livre Previsões: Curto e médio prazo: até 2 semanas | Longo prazo: mensal e sazonal (Regras e links úteis nos 1ºs posts)
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- Estado
Daniel Vilão
Super Célula
Por Benidorm, comunidade de Valência, céu muito nublado e vento fraco.
Choveu um pouco ontem, pelo fim da tarde, mas hoje ainda nao choveu e espera-se que nao chova.
A temperatura ronda os 17 ºC e nota-se um ligeiro aquecimento face ao dia de ontem.
Choveu um pouco ontem, pelo fim da tarde, mas hoje ainda nao choveu e espera-se que nao chova.
A temperatura ronda os 17 ºC e nota-se um ligeiro aquecimento face ao dia de ontem.
Daniel Vilão
Super Célula
Mais uma noite de bastante chuva, por vezes moderada, com alguns períodos de forte.
O dia amanheceu com poucas nuvens, ao contrário dos dias anteriores, tendo a temperatura chegado aos 18,5 ºC pelo início da tarde.
O dia amanheceu com poucas nuvens, ao contrário dos dias anteriores, tendo a temperatura chegado aos 18,5 ºC pelo início da tarde.
Daniel Vilão
Super Célula
Jantei ontem por Sevilha, à vinda de Benidorm, onde observei uma temperatura de 20,5 ºC pelas 21:20h espanholas, com céu pouco nublado e vento fraco a moderado.
Chasing Thunder
Cumulonimbus
Enquanto cá nós Portugueses vimos alguma amostra ( muito pouca) de Chuva
, os nossos vizinhos espanhóis estão em festa
.
, os nossos vizinhos espanhóis estão em festa.
thunderboy
Cumulonimbus
Enquanto cá nós Portugueses vimos alguma amostra ( muito pouca) de Chuva
Bem visível através do satélite.
Por em Viena,
Continuo com incriveis dias de sol e Primavera.
As temperaturas marcaram hoje 24º de máxima, o dia mais quente do ano, e até ao início da noite permaneciam 20º!
São 10 dias seguidos de sol e céu limpo ou pouco nublado.
Curioso ter nevado nos dias 18, 24 e 25 de Março e desde o dia 2 de Abril ter estado sempre com temperaturas entre os 10º e os 25º. Acaba o Inverno como começou bruto, muito bem definido e súbido.
Continuo com incriveis dias de sol e Primavera.
As temperaturas marcaram hoje 24º de máxima, o dia mais quente do ano, e até ao início da noite permaneciam 20º!
São 10 dias seguidos de sol e céu limpo ou pouco nublado.
Curioso ter nevado nos dias 18, 24 e 25 de Março e desde o dia 2 de Abril ter estado sempre com temperaturas entre os 10º e os 25º. Acaba o Inverno como começou bruto, muito bem definido e súbido.
Continuas tu e continua muita Europa.
Basta ver as temperaturas hoje às 14 UTC
Leste de França, Países Baixos,Alemanha, Polónia ,Europa Central,Balcãs, enfim,
já todos sentem uma Primavera bem assumida com máximas um pouco por todo o lado a rondar os 25º ou inclusivé um pouco mais.
E assim irá continuar a julgar pela previsão de temperaturas do GFS para
meados da semana que vem:
Curioso o contraste que vai havendo entre esta Primavera assumida um pouco por toda a Europa (excepção para a Escandinávia)
e esta Ibéria que está fresquinha e assim irá continuar para a semana
com chuvas generalizadas...
Se de um lado tapa , do outro destapa...
Chasing Thunder
Cumulonimbus
Previsão do Estofex para Hoje dia 14 de Abril.
SYNOPSIS
Two large low pressure areas, one over the Atlantic Ocean and the other over the southern Balkan, dominate the map. In between these main lows, over central Europe, is a large area of weak gradients and slight low pressure in which vertical profiles are locally marginally unstable.
A cold front has become nearly stationary at the west coast of France at 00Z.
The main thundery action of the day should occur when the upper trough interacts with instability buildup over France. The GFS model predicts several shortwave troughs embedded within the highly cyclonal flow, while the left exit region of the jetstream should arrive around 21Z near the western Pyrenees.
However, the small amount of moisture to work with yields only a modest amount of CAPE in the model. CAPE is thought to reach higher values over northern France, but the forcing will be very limited for most of that area.
Models do agree about precipitation, though.
DISCUSSION
...western France, northern Spain...
00Z soundings indicate that still quite some moistening and lifting is needed before profiles are conditionally unstable. Values of 6 g/kg average mixing ratio in the lowest kilometer in Santander appear correctly in GFS. A few hundred J/kg CAPE should be possible around the Basque area. Predicted values reach higher over central and eastern France in mesoscale models, but absence of favorable shear and lift suggests limited chance of severe weather there.
Over Spain and western France, 6km deep layer shear will be higher than 20 m/s while 3 km SREH is 150-300 m²/s² near the SW France coast. This environment is favorable for multi- and supercellular storms producing large hail. Especially as better dynamics arrive during the evening, the chance of initiation of an MCS is good. It could produce severe gusts locally if it lines up perpendicular to the shear vector (i.e. NW-SE), but in general a linear system appears to line up along the shear vector today. A secondary severe threat area appears warranted for northwestern France, where shear is moderate as well and deep convergence is forecast. Large hail will be the main threat.
Note that low-level shear increases after 18Z to values >10 m/s locally, and is somewhat favorable for a tornado, but in the relatively moisture-starved, marginally unstable situation with cooling BL this development seems unlikely.
GFS 18Z predicts a rather aggressive jet and deep layer shear >30 m/s over Spain during the night with the left exit region still near the Pyrenees, and uncapped parcels are still displayed at that hour by the model. Given also SREH increasing, and more than 12 m/s shear component normal to low-level theta-e gradients, another thunderstorm system, with severe gusts, could develop on the south side of the Pyrenees. However, given so poor instability and being the first such setup of this year, there is not much confidence in this scenario at this moment.
...central Turkey...
By GFS guidance, presence of instability, combined with convergence zones and around 250 m²/s² SREH, 30 m/s DLS and more than 10 m/s LLS, suggest that severe storms can occur. While the environment is rather dry, storms that succeed can be strong and fast moving with large hail and severe downburst winds.
SYNOPSIS
Two large low pressure areas, one over the Atlantic Ocean and the other over the southern Balkan, dominate the map. In between these main lows, over central Europe, is a large area of weak gradients and slight low pressure in which vertical profiles are locally marginally unstable.
A cold front has become nearly stationary at the west coast of France at 00Z.
The main thundery action of the day should occur when the upper trough interacts with instability buildup over France. The GFS model predicts several shortwave troughs embedded within the highly cyclonal flow, while the left exit region of the jetstream should arrive around 21Z near the western Pyrenees.
However, the small amount of moisture to work with yields only a modest amount of CAPE in the model. CAPE is thought to reach higher values over northern France, but the forcing will be very limited for most of that area.
Models do agree about precipitation, though.
DISCUSSION
...western France, northern Spain...
00Z soundings indicate that still quite some moistening and lifting is needed before profiles are conditionally unstable. Values of 6 g/kg average mixing ratio in the lowest kilometer in Santander appear correctly in GFS. A few hundred J/kg CAPE should be possible around the Basque area. Predicted values reach higher over central and eastern France in mesoscale models, but absence of favorable shear and lift suggests limited chance of severe weather there.
Over Spain and western France, 6km deep layer shear will be higher than 20 m/s while 3 km SREH is 150-300 m²/s² near the SW France coast. This environment is favorable for multi- and supercellular storms producing large hail. Especially as better dynamics arrive during the evening, the chance of initiation of an MCS is good. It could produce severe gusts locally if it lines up perpendicular to the shear vector (i.e. NW-SE), but in general a linear system appears to line up along the shear vector today. A secondary severe threat area appears warranted for northwestern France, where shear is moderate as well and deep convergence is forecast. Large hail will be the main threat.
Note that low-level shear increases after 18Z to values >10 m/s locally, and is somewhat favorable for a tornado, but in the relatively moisture-starved, marginally unstable situation with cooling BL this development seems unlikely.
GFS 18Z predicts a rather aggressive jet and deep layer shear >30 m/s over Spain during the night with the left exit region still near the Pyrenees, and uncapped parcels are still displayed at that hour by the model. Given also SREH increasing, and more than 12 m/s shear component normal to low-level theta-e gradients, another thunderstorm system, with severe gusts, could develop on the south side of the Pyrenees. However, given so poor instability and being the first such setup of this year, there is not much confidence in this scenario at this moment.
...central Turkey...
By GFS guidance, presence of instability, combined with convergence zones and around 250 m²/s² SREH, 30 m/s DLS and more than 10 m/s LLS, suggest that severe storms can occur. While the environment is rather dry, storms that succeed can be strong and fast moving with large hail and severe downburst winds.
Chasing Thunder
Cumulonimbus
Previsão do Estofex para hoje dia 15 de Abril.
SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure at mid and upper levels of troposphere is stretching from the Mediterranean into Central Europe. To the west a broad cyclonic vortex will influence the weather development. Its center will be located close to the Spanish NW coast with several impulses rotating around it in strong mid level flow, having windspeeds over 30 m/s. Another mid-level low of smaller scale with center over Belarus / Ukraine border will slowly move southwards on the forward flank of the ridge. Generally, eastern Europe will be placed under a large, but shallow trough. At the surface, low pressure systems will affect W and SE Europe, whereas a high will become well-established over Scandinavia. The main frontal zone will stretch across W Europe with warm front crossing southern England by Wednesday morning and cold front should slowly progress across France and Spain to the east.
DISCUSSION
... S France / NE Spain....
In the left-exit region of the mid-level jet and under one of the embedded impulses rotating around the low, an upward motion is simulated by the numerical models. At the same time, a trough will cross the region, resulting in the strenghtened flow at lower levels of troposphere, reaching up to 20 m/s at 850 hPa level. Behind the region of stratiform precipitation, ongoing surface heating should lead to the destabilization, with several hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE possible across southern France, locally up to 1000 J/kg. GFS keeps also simulating deep unstable layers, so that integrated CAPE values reach quite high values. Deep level shear will be very strong under the mid-level jet, with values well over 30 m/s. However, the strongest flow will not overlap with the region of instability very well, so that around 15 - 20 m/s of DLS is expected in the region with the best instability release. Veering wind profiles associated with the trough will lead to the increase of SREH, so that more than 200 J/kg are possible. Again however, the region of instability will not correlate very well with the enhanced SREH values.
The storms will be easily initiated with the aid of synoptic scale setup and the first storms will develop already by Wednesday mornings around the Pyrenees region. The coverage will quickly increase by noon and due to the favourable forcing, a cluster of storms ( or even MCS) is quite possible, involving well organized multicells and some brief supercells as well, due to the enhanced SREH values and moderate shear. Stronger cells will have the potential to produce isolated large hail, especially in the case if supercells manage to form. This risk will probably quickly subside after the sunset with the dimnishing instability.
In the region of southern France, belt of strong low level shear is simulated by GFS, exceeding 10 m/s ( GFS 18Z run suggests even more than 15 m/s of LLS combined with surface based instability ). Also, SREH0-1 km shows locally enhanced values over 200 J/kg, overlapping with the eastern border of the unstable airmass. With quite moist air at low levels, low LCLs are expected and therefore, tornadoes are possible, if storms can tap this strong low level shear. This threat might persist into the night hours across SE France, as GFS is simulating some boundary layer instability in the region of strong LLS there and very strong forcing.
Level 2 is issued for the region, where the best overlap of shear and instability will exist and the greatest severe weather coverage is expected.
... Central to N France....
Ahead of the advancing cold front, slightly unstable airmass is anticipated with several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE possible. DLS will be quite weak, precluding more organized storms, however, pools of higher SREH and a belt of strong LLS, exceeding 12,5 m/s suggest that some storms might briefly acquire rotation and one or two tornadoes can not be ruled out.
...England / Wales...
As the warm front will cross the region, an advection of warm and humid airmass is anticipated. Surface based heating and the synoptic scale lift will lead to the slight destabilization and thundestorms will form by 12Z. SREH in 0-1km layer ahead of the surface trough will reach more than 200 J/kg with low level shear over 10 m/s. Humid airmass will guarantee the low cloud bases. Again as in the case of the N France, deep layer shear will be very weak, only around 10 m/s and we can not expect long-lasting organised storms. However, with the aid of local boundaries, brief rotation might develop and at the moment, an isolated tornado event remains possible, so that we issue a Level 1 for this area.
SYNOPSIS
A ridge of high pressure at mid and upper levels of troposphere is stretching from the Mediterranean into Central Europe. To the west a broad cyclonic vortex will influence the weather development. Its center will be located close to the Spanish NW coast with several impulses rotating around it in strong mid level flow, having windspeeds over 30 m/s. Another mid-level low of smaller scale with center over Belarus / Ukraine border will slowly move southwards on the forward flank of the ridge. Generally, eastern Europe will be placed under a large, but shallow trough. At the surface, low pressure systems will affect W and SE Europe, whereas a high will become well-established over Scandinavia. The main frontal zone will stretch across W Europe with warm front crossing southern England by Wednesday morning and cold front should slowly progress across France and Spain to the east.
DISCUSSION
... S France / NE Spain....
In the left-exit region of the mid-level jet and under one of the embedded impulses rotating around the low, an upward motion is simulated by the numerical models. At the same time, a trough will cross the region, resulting in the strenghtened flow at lower levels of troposphere, reaching up to 20 m/s at 850 hPa level. Behind the region of stratiform precipitation, ongoing surface heating should lead to the destabilization, with several hundreds J/kg of MLCAPE possible across southern France, locally up to 1000 J/kg. GFS keeps also simulating deep unstable layers, so that integrated CAPE values reach quite high values. Deep level shear will be very strong under the mid-level jet, with values well over 30 m/s. However, the strongest flow will not overlap with the region of instability very well, so that around 15 - 20 m/s of DLS is expected in the region with the best instability release. Veering wind profiles associated with the trough will lead to the increase of SREH, so that more than 200 J/kg are possible. Again however, the region of instability will not correlate very well with the enhanced SREH values.
The storms will be easily initiated with the aid of synoptic scale setup and the first storms will develop already by Wednesday mornings around the Pyrenees region. The coverage will quickly increase by noon and due to the favourable forcing, a cluster of storms ( or even MCS) is quite possible, involving well organized multicells and some brief supercells as well, due to the enhanced SREH values and moderate shear. Stronger cells will have the potential to produce isolated large hail, especially in the case if supercells manage to form. This risk will probably quickly subside after the sunset with the dimnishing instability.
In the region of southern France, belt of strong low level shear is simulated by GFS, exceeding 10 m/s ( GFS 18Z run suggests even more than 15 m/s of LLS combined with surface based instability ). Also, SREH0-1 km shows locally enhanced values over 200 J/kg, overlapping with the eastern border of the unstable airmass. With quite moist air at low levels, low LCLs are expected and therefore, tornadoes are possible, if storms can tap this strong low level shear. This threat might persist into the night hours across SE France, as GFS is simulating some boundary layer instability in the region of strong LLS there and very strong forcing.
Level 2 is issued for the region, where the best overlap of shear and instability will exist and the greatest severe weather coverage is expected.
... Central to N France....
Ahead of the advancing cold front, slightly unstable airmass is anticipated with several hundred J/kg of MLCAPE possible. DLS will be quite weak, precluding more organized storms, however, pools of higher SREH and a belt of strong LLS, exceeding 12,5 m/s suggest that some storms might briefly acquire rotation and one or two tornadoes can not be ruled out.
...England / Wales...
As the warm front will cross the region, an advection of warm and humid airmass is anticipated. Surface based heating and the synoptic scale lift will lead to the slight destabilization and thundestorms will form by 12Z. SREH in 0-1km layer ahead of the surface trough will reach more than 200 J/kg with low level shear over 10 m/s. Humid airmass will guarantee the low cloud bases. Again as in the case of the N France, deep layer shear will be very weak, only around 10 m/s and we can not expect long-lasting organised storms. However, with the aid of local boundaries, brief rotation might develop and at the moment, an isolated tornado event remains possible, so that we issue a Level 1 for this area.
E as previsões do tempo para esta semana que eram adiantadas no final da passada semana confirmaram-se.
Com efeito , hoje há Primavera assumida em muita Europa
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Desde o sudeste da Inglaterra , passando pelos Paises Baixos,leste de França,Alemanha, Polónia, paises da Europa Central, Balcas e Itália
,todos estão a gozar de temperaturas já acima dos 20º e céus predominantemente limpos.
Até parece estranho este fresquinho/frio precipitoso por que a Ibéria
vai passando.Às vezes acontece assim, como que ao contrário do normal...
Com efeito , hoje há Primavera assumida em muita Europa
Desde o sudeste da Inglaterra , passando pelos Paises Baixos,leste de França,Alemanha, Polónia, paises da Europa Central, Balcas e Itália
,todos estão a gozar de temperaturas já acima dos 20º e céus predominantemente limpos.
Até parece estranho este fresquinho/frio precipitoso por que a Ibéria
vai passando.Às vezes acontece assim, como que ao contrário do normal...
Fil
Cumulonimbus
Obviamente que não é nada normal o calor.
Trata-se como o gráfico mostra temperaturas cerca de 8 graus acima da média!
Tenho estado com médias 13-23º desde há 15 dias, e as médias deveriam ser 5-15º!!!!
Já o Novembro e Dezembro foram ligeiramente superiores à média, o Janeiro foi dentro da média (mesmo c vaga de frio), o Fevereiro superior à média em uns 2-3 graus, o Março dentro da média. Será um sinal das mudanças climáticas?
Trata-se como o gráfico mostra temperaturas cerca de 8 graus acima da média!
Tenho estado com médias 13-23º desde há 15 dias, e as médias deveriam ser 5-15º!!!!
Já o Novembro e Dezembro foram ligeiramente superiores à média, o Janeiro foi dentro da média (mesmo c vaga de frio), o Fevereiro superior à média em uns 2-3 graus, o Março dentro da média. Será um sinal das mudanças climáticas?
Chasing Thunder
Cumulonimbus
Previsão do Estofex para Hoje dia 16 de Abril:
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure area with it center between Ireland and Spain affects a large part of western Europe with unstable weather. The main occluded front remains stationary over southern Great Britain, Belgium/Netherlands and Germany. The sharp convergence zone along the front provides a clear focus for thunderstorm development, and flow parallel to the front may cause training of storms through confined areas.
Elsewhere, over France and Spain, widely scattered convective cells will readily develop in the colder airmass. With steep low-level lapse rates and 0-3 km CAPE and weak flow, an isolated landspout is not ruled out.
Less defined is the instability over the area of northern Italy, but the presence of a strong jet creates lift and an environment of strong shear.
DISCUSSION
...northern Italy...
A marginal level 1 is issued for this area. Up to 30 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear is predicted, crossing weak instability. There is less shear in 0-3 km layer and patches of 8-10 m/s low level shear. Storm-relative helicity is enhanced to 100-250 m²/s² but does not appear to overlap during the period of most instability: after 18Z and the west side of the area. An isolated storm may produce large hail or severe wind gusts. The same goes for late at night in the Istria area, but with increased LL shear (>12 m/s inland) a tornado is not excluded.
...Germany, Benelux...
CAPE is currently not really large, but marginally enhanced deep layer shear (10-15 m/s) and deep dry boundary layers like in the 00Z Essen or De Bilt sounding (small warm cloud depth) support some chance of reasonably large hail, as well as gusts (evaporative cooling). Additionally, large scale rising motion may further destabilize the profiles. The forecast well-defined convergence zone with mid level flow mostly parallel to the line (posibly enhancing hail cycling), may cause some multicells to be effective hail producers.
There is potential for thunderstorms tracing along the path of previous cells which could locally cause large rain sums, but as profiles currently still seem rather unsaturated, the chance seems limited.
Grandes células que estão neste momento no Nordeste de França
.
SYNOPSIS
A low pressure area with it center between Ireland and Spain affects a large part of western Europe with unstable weather. The main occluded front remains stationary over southern Great Britain, Belgium/Netherlands and Germany. The sharp convergence zone along the front provides a clear focus for thunderstorm development, and flow parallel to the front may cause training of storms through confined areas.
Elsewhere, over France and Spain, widely scattered convective cells will readily develop in the colder airmass. With steep low-level lapse rates and 0-3 km CAPE and weak flow, an isolated landspout is not ruled out.
Less defined is the instability over the area of northern Italy, but the presence of a strong jet creates lift and an environment of strong shear.
DISCUSSION
...northern Italy...
A marginal level 1 is issued for this area. Up to 30 m/s 0-6 km bulk shear is predicted, crossing weak instability. There is less shear in 0-3 km layer and patches of 8-10 m/s low level shear. Storm-relative helicity is enhanced to 100-250 m²/s² but does not appear to overlap during the period of most instability: after 18Z and the west side of the area. An isolated storm may produce large hail or severe wind gusts. The same goes for late at night in the Istria area, but with increased LL shear (>12 m/s inland) a tornado is not excluded.
...Germany, Benelux...
CAPE is currently not really large, but marginally enhanced deep layer shear (10-15 m/s) and deep dry boundary layers like in the 00Z Essen or De Bilt sounding (small warm cloud depth) support some chance of reasonably large hail, as well as gusts (evaporative cooling). Additionally, large scale rising motion may further destabilize the profiles. The forecast well-defined convergence zone with mid level flow mostly parallel to the line (posibly enhancing hail cycling), may cause some multicells to be effective hail producers.
There is potential for thunderstorms tracing along the path of previous cells which could locally cause large rain sums, but as profiles currently still seem rather unsaturated, the chance seems limited.
Grandes células que estão neste momento no Nordeste de França
.
O Estofex tinha ontem alerta "1" para o sul de França e hoje não tinha, mas parece que agora se incendiou
Umas fotos de ontem a SE de Tolouse no que parece ter sido uma pequena supercéula:
(c) Cyril Aniel
(c) Cyril Aniel
(c) Cyril Aniel
(c) Cyril Aniel
Umas fotos de ontem a SE de Tolouse no que parece ter sido uma pequena supercéula:
(c) Cyril Aniel
(c) Cyril Aniel
(c) Cyril Aniel
(c) Cyril Aniel
- Estado