Tempestade Tropical NADINE (Atlântico 2012 #AL14)

belem1960

Cirrus
Registo
17 Set 2012
Mensagens
2
Local
Ponta Delgada - Açores
Para os entendidos na matéria, pois eu sou um mero curioso, gostaria de fazer duas perguntas?
1º Será que o Grupo Oriental irá ser bastante afetado?
2º Será que os ventos serão na ordem do cominicado feito pelo IM Ventos de 90 Kms rajadas de 130 kms., é que segundo a NHC os ventos máximos serão de 45 mph (72 Kms) com rajadas superiores, ou as contas são feitas por excesso. Cumprimentos e obrigada.
 


F_R

Cumulonimbus
Registo
9 Ago 2008
Mensagens
2,299
Local
Nantes (Abrantes)
Tropical Storm Nadine (Atlantic Ocean)10.01.12

Credit: SSAI/Hal Pierce NASA Sees Nadine Weaken to a Tropical Storm Again

NASA satellites continue to watch the long-lived Nadine in the eastern Atlantic. Today, Oct. 1, NASA satellite data revealed that Nadine has weakened from a hurricane and is now a tropical storm.

Over the weekend of Sept. 29 and 30, Hurricane Nadine dramatically rebounded. On September 19, 2012 Nadine appeared to be dissipating quickly and was expected to become post-tropical but after over a week of meandering near the Azores, Nadine sprang to life again as a hurricane on Friday September 28, 2012.

NASA's Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite's path took it almost directly above hurricane Nadine on Sept. 30 at 0452 UTC (12:52 a.m. EDT) when it was still a hurricane.

At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. an enhanced infrared image from TRMM's Visible and InfraRed Scanner (VIRS) was overlaid with a rainfall analysis derived from TRMM's TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Precipitation Radar (PR). The final image revealed that Nadine had a well-defined but ragged eye with the heaviest rainfall of about 50mm/hour (~2 inches) located on the western side of the hurricane.

TRMM PR data were used to also create a 3-D view from the northeast that showed convective thunderstorms in the northwestern part of the hurricane were reaching to heights of about 12km (~7.5 miles).

On Oct. 1 at 11 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Nadine was 690 miles (1,110 km) west of the Azores near latitude 35.8 north and longitude 39.2 west. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 kph). Nadine is moving toward the south-southeast near 5 mph (7 kph) and expected to do a counter-clockwise loop over the next day, turning southeast and east.

A Tropical Storm Watch is again in effect for the Azores.

Satellite data reveals that the strongest thunderstorms within Nadine are in the northern and eastern quadrants. Wind shear is increasing and sea surface temperatures are below the 80 degree Fahrenheit (26.6 Celsius) threshold needed to keep a tropical storm going, so weakening is expected.

Infrared imagery from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) instrument aboard the Aqua satellite show that sea surface temperatures near Nadine are around 23 Celsius (73.4 Fahrenheit), too cold to maintain a tropical storm.

According to the National Hurricane Center, tropical storm conditions are possible in the Azores by late Wednesday, Oct. 3.

http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/hurricanes/archives/2012/h2012_Nadine.html
 

faroeste

Cirrus
Registo
18 Set 2012
Mensagens
79
Local
Alt:111m 5-Ribeiras,AGH,Terceira,Açores
000
wtnt34 knhc 012042
tcpat4

bulletin
tropical storm nadine advisory number 77
nws national hurricane center miami fl al142012
500 pm ast mon oct 01 2012

...nadine weakens a little more...


Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...35.4n 39.4w
about 710 mi...1140 km w of the azores
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...s or 180 degrees at 5 mph...7 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm watch is in effect for...
* the azores

a tropical storm watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area...in this case within 48 to 72 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm nadine was
located near latitude 35.4 north...longitude 39.4 west. Nadine is
moving toward the south near 5 mph...7 km/h. A turn to the
southeast...follwed by a turn to the east with an increase in
forward speed is expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph...100
km/h...with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during
the next two days.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 125 miles...205 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are possible in the azores by
wednesday night.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 pm ast.
Next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.
 

faroeste

Cirrus
Registo
18 Set 2012
Mensagens
79
Local
Alt:111m 5-Ribeiras,AGH,Terceira,Açores
000
wtnt34 knhc 020248
tcpat4

bulletin
tropical storm nadine advisory number 78
nws national hurricane center miami fl al142012
1100 pm ast mon oct 01 2012

...nadine moving southeastward...
...expected to turn eastward on tuesday...


Summary of 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...information
-----------------------------------------------
location...34.7n 38.9w
about 700 mi...1125 km wsw of the azores
maximum sustained winds...65 mph...100 km/h
present movement...se or 125 degrees at 6 mph...9 km/h
minimum central pressure...995 mb...29.38 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the azores

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 1100 pm ast...0300 utc...the center of tropical storm nadine was
located near latitude 34.7 north...longitude 38.9 west. Nadine is
moving toward the southeast near 6 mph...9 km/h. A turn toward the
east is expected by tuesday afternoon...followed by a turn toward
the northeast with an increase in forward speed on wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph...100 km/h...with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb...29.38 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the azores by
wednesday night.

Rainfall...nadine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over portions of the azores
through thursday.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...200 am ast.
Next complete advisory...500 am ast.
 

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
Mensagens
10,624
Local
Braga
A Nadine nesta altura como Tempestade Tropical tem 995mb de pressão mínima e ventos máximos sustentados de 100km/h.

NKhhg.gif



Deverá então passar na madrugada/manhã de quinta-feira junto ao grupo central na órbita de uma outra depressão extra-tropical no Atlântico norte que a acabará por a absorver. Na passagem nos Açores já deverá sentir bastante os efeitos hostis dessa depressão que a acabará por absorver, embora ela ainda consiga manter alguma identidade durante esses dias.

YaKoO.gif


A Nadine por si não parece muito sério para os Açores nos modelos, embora ainda com vento razoável e chuva, esta dependente da convecção que ainda consiga gerar nessa altura, o que é sempre mais incerto de se prever.

Posteriormente a partir da sexta-feira à tarde/noite e fim de semana o arquipélago deverá ser afectado com mais chuva devido a essa mesma depressão extra-tropical, serão mais uns dias a poder cair bastante água nalgumas zonas, pelo que tudo junto pode comportar alguns riscos devido a solos saturados.

XMBk8.gif
 

faroeste

Cirrus
Registo
18 Set 2012
Mensagens
79
Local
Alt:111m 5-Ribeiras,AGH,Terceira,Açores
000
wtnt34 knhc 022036
tcpat4

bulletin
tropical storm nadine advisory number 81
nws national hurricane center miami fl al142012
500 pm ast tue oct 02 2012

...three-week-old nadine heading toward the azores once again...


Summary of 500 pm ast...2100 utc...information
----------------------------------------------
location...34.4n 36.7w
about 595 mi...955 km wsw of the azores
maximum sustained winds...60 mph...95 km/h
present movement...e or 90 degrees at 7 mph...11 km/h
minimum central pressure...994 mb...29.35 inches


watches and warnings
--------------------
changes with this advisory...

None.

Summary of watches and warnings in effect...

A tropical storm warning is in effect for...
* the azores

a tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area...generally within 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


Discussion and 48-hour outlook
------------------------------
at 500 pm ast...2100 utc...the center of tropical storm nadine was
located near latitude 34.4 north...longitude 36.7 west. Nadine is
moving toward the east near 7 mph...11 km/h...and this general
motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected on wednesday. On the
forecast track...the center of nadine should move through the azores
wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph...95 km/h...with higher
gusts. Slow gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb...29.35 inches.


Hazards affecting land
----------------------
wind...tropical storm conditions are expected in the azores by
wednesday night.

Rainfall...nadine is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 2 inches over portions of the azores
through thursday.


Next advisory
-------------
next intermediate advisory...800 pm ast.
Next complete advisory...1100 pm ast.
 

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
Mensagens
10,624
Local
Braga
A Nadine já está bastante descaracterizada nas imagens de satélite


qi9Lf.gif


Vamos ver o que sobra quando passar amanhã junto ao grupo central. O centro deverá passar junto às ilhas sensivelmente pelas 09:00 utc, pelo que o vento se começará a notar umas horas antes e manter-se-á umas horas depois disso.
A precipitação é mais difícil de perceber quanto será, depende da convecção se manter e em que quadrantes do ciclone.

Para o seguimento usem o tópico das ilhas:
-> Seguimento Açores e Madeira - Outubro 2012
 

Snowy

Cumulus
Registo
28 Set 2011
Mensagens
272
Local
Ponta Delgada
Nadine continua a enfraquecer aos poucos:

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NADINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 83A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
800 AM AST WED OCT 03 2012

...WEAKENING NADINE HEADING TOWARD THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.9N 34.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE AZORES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NADINE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST. NADINE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY TONIGHT.
NADINE SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NADINE
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE AZORES LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO LOSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE CHARACTERISTICS THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE AZORES BY
TONIGHT.

RAINFALL...NADINE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
THROUGH THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 

Paulo H

Cumulonimbus
Registo
2 Jan 2008
Mensagens
3,271
Local
Castelo Branco 386m(489/366m)
Nadine em 6o lugar com 20,75 dias de duração, na lista de furacões no atlântico, na wikipedia.

Pode ainda ficar em 5o lugar (21 dias), antes de perder completamente as suas características.
 

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
Mensagens
10,624
Local
Braga
A Nadine perdeu quase toda a convecção mais intensa, o que é bom para os Açores, significa menos chuva. Embora possa perfeitamente ressurgir durante a madrugada, por vezes acontece.
Mas para já, é essa a situação.

BDOV5.gif




NADINE HAS BECOME A TIGHT SWIRL DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KNOTS...AND IF NO NEW DEEP
CONVECTIVE CELLS DEVELOP...AS ANTICIPATED...NADINE WILL DE DECLARED
A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE
CYCLONE COULD STILL PRODUCE TROPICAL-STORM- OR GALE-FORCE WINDS AS
IT PASSES NEAR THE AZORES IN ABOUT 12 HOURS OR SO.

NADINE IS FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A MUCH LARGER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT IS RUNNING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 16
KT AHEAD OF A FAST-APPROACHING COLD FRONT. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE
NORTH IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...AND THEN POST-TROPICAL NADINE
SHOULD BECOME FULLY ABSORBED BY THE SAME LOW WITHIN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 36.1N 31.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 38.0N 30.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 43.0N 26.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 05/0600Z 46.5N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 05/1800Z 48.0N 25.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 06/1800Z...ABSORBED


Na última saída do GFS (18z) o que resta do centro da Nadine passaria junto ao grupo central pelas 6 utc, já com o ciclone a perder estrutura.

IEk3h.png




Para o seguimento usem o tópico das ilhas:
-> Seguimento Açores e Madeira - Outubro 2012
 

Ignotus

Cirrus
Registo
20 Set 2012
Mensagens
3
Local
Horta
Ponta Delgada , 3 de Outubro de 2012

Governo determina encerramento das escolas amanhã no Grupo Central como precaução face à tempestade NADINE
O Serviço Regional de Proteção Civil e Bombeiros dos Açores informa que, face à previsão do Instituto de Meteorologia (IM), a Secretaria Regional da Educação e Formação determinou, por precaução, o encerramento das escolas em todas as ilhas do Grupo Central, no dia de amanhã.
De acordo com o IM, prevê-se que as ilhas Terceira, Graciosa e São Jorge, sejam as mais afetadas pela passagem da tempestade tropical Nadine, pelo que se reforçam as recomendações para aquelas ilhas, em particular.
O IM mantém as previsões de condições de tempestade tropical para todas as ilhas do Grupo Central entre as 03h e as 15h (hora dos Açores) de amanhã (4 de outubro), com ventos muito fortes de sueste, rodando para sudoeste até 85 km/h, com rajadas de 130 km/h, precipitação forte e ondas entre 6 e 7 metros.
O IM mantém, também, as previsões de vento forte, com rajadas, para as ilhas do Grupo Oriental entre as 00h e as 21h (hora dos Açores), de amanhã (4 de outubro).
Nestas circunstâncias, o SRPCBA recomenda que sejam tomadas as precauções habituais em situações desta natureza.
De entre estas, recomenda-se que se proceda: à guarda de todos os objetos soltos junto às edificações e espaços ao seu redor; à limpeza dos sistemas de drenagem; à consolidação dos telhados, das portas e das janelas.
Recomenda-se, também, aos pescadores e aos praticantes da náutica de recreio que adotem medidas preventivas, em conformidade com a situação.
Recomenda-se, ainda, aos automobilistas que redobrem os cuidados na circulação.
Por último, recomenda-se às pessoas que, na medida do possível e tendo em atenção as condições prevalecentes, se mantenham em suas casas.
O SRPCBA e o IM, bem como todas as autoridades e agentes de proteção civil, continuam a acompanhar o evoluir da situação.
Novos avisos serão emitidos, sempre que oportuno.
GaCS/SRPCBA

EDIT : "À meia noite dos Açores: emissão especial da RTP/A com diretos das ilhas onde se espera que a tempestade tropical Nadine venha a passar...
Estão equacionados diretos durante a madrugada, caso a situação se justifique." em facebook de acores.rtp.pt
 
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