A grande onda de calor da Rússia Julho-Agosto 2010
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Mário Barros
Furacão
Mário Barros
Furacão
The Russian Heat Wave: Why is it So Hot?
The Russian heartland has reeled this summer under deadly severe heat that has only been made worse by debilitating drought and wildfires.
Moscow has its hottest month in 130 years of records, including its highest temperature ever recorded.
Average temperatures for the month of July were fully 15 F above normal, and since the start of summer, average temperatures have been a staggering 13.8 F above normal.
Fires are blazing where normally the land is lush and well-watered with green woods and crops.
The Associated Press reports that tens of thousands of firefighters and volunteers were battling wildfires that have killed at least 40 people and destroyed several thousand homes so far. Smoke from these fires has enveloped Moscow with smog.
Hundreds more have drowned in swimming mishaps while trying to cool off from the relentless heat.
So what exactly is the cause of this unusual, severe heat in an area usually accustomed to moderate, moist summers?
"Clues can be found in the upper atmosphere of the middle latitudes, where the ever-present winds of the jet stream hold sway," said AccuWeather.com Senior Meteorologist Jim Andrews.
According to Andrews, a strong upper-atmospheric high, or ridge, built over European Russia toward the beginning of summer. In doing so, it diverted the jet stream and its rain-giving train of summer storms farther north than usual, giving much of the area drought conditions this summer.
In addition, southern desert heat from central Asia, the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa began to flow northward, which strengthened this ridge and tightened its hold over the region.
Land parched by drought normally tends to heat more than well-watered land, as evaporation works as a cooling agent, Andrews said.
"The land and the atmosphere above it answer by becoming hotter," he said. "This, in turn, strengthens the upper ridge and its ability to shunt away cooling, rain-bearing storms riding the steering winds of the jet stream."
The increase in temperature, the increase in evaporation and the drying of the ground create a "vicious cycle" in that each condition continues to intensify, and it is unclear which condition came first, which Andrews refers to as a "chicken or the egg" conundrum.
Whatever the case, the cycle seems to have kicked in with profound effect for millions in the Russian heartland.
So, what will it take to break the iron-clad upper ridge and the heat and drought it has created?
According to Andrews, this pattern will run its course eventually, as strong sunshine of long Russian summer days will inevitably give way as the seasons progress.
"Rain-giving storms will break down the ridge followed by the cold and snow of the long Russian winter," he said.
In the meantime, heat and drought will grip greater Moscow through at least Sunday with abnormal heat for at least another week in southern Russia.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/34926/the-russian-heat-wave-why-is-i.asp
Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave
The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 brought temperatures of 37°C (99°F) to Moscow today, and smog and smoke from wildfires blanketed the city for a sixth straight day. Air pollution levels were 2 - 3 times the maximum safe level today, and peaked on Saturday, when when carbon monoxide hit 6.5 times the safe level. The death toll from heat and air pollution increased to approximately 330 people per day in Moscow in recent days, according to the head of the Moscow health department. Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, said excess deaths in Moscow in July averaged 155 per day, compared to 2009. The heat wave began on June 27. These grim statistics suggest that in Moscow alone, the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 has likely killed at least 7,000 people so far. A plot of the departure of July 2010 temperatures from average (Figure 1) shows that the area of Russia experiencing incredible heat is vast, and that regions southeast of Moscow have the hottest, relative to average. Moscow is the largest city in Russia, with a population just over ten million, but there are several other major cities in the heat wave region. These include Saint Petersburg, Russia's 2nd most populous city (4.6 million), and Nizhny Novgorod, Russia's 5th most populous city (1.3 million people.) Thus, the Russian population affected by extreme heat is at least double the population of Moscow, and the death toll in Russia from the 2010 heat wave is probably at least 15,000, and may be much higher. The only comparable heat wave in European history occurred in 2003, and killed an estimated 40,000 - 50,000 people, mostly in France and Italy. While the temperatures in that heat wave were not as extreme as the Russian heat wave, the nighttime low temperatures in the 2003 heat wave were considerably higher. This tends to add to heat stress and causes a higher death toll. I expect that by the time the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is over, it may rival the 2003 European heat wave as the deadliest heat wave in world history.
Figure 1. A comparison of August temperatures, the peak of the great European heat wave of 2003 (left) with July temperatures from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 (right) reveals that this year's heat wave is more intense and covers a wider area of Europe. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.
Worst Russian heat wave in 1,000 years of history
The temperature at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport hit 99°F (37°C) today. Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past two weeks. Temperatures the past 27 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow. Alexander Frolov, head of Russia's weather service, said in a statement today, "Our ancestors haven't observed or registered a heat like that within 1,000 years. This phenomenon is absolutely unique." There is some slight relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures of 31 - 33°C (88 - 91 °F) Wednesday though Sunday.
Belarus records its hottest temperature in history for the second day in a row
The Russian heat wave has also affected the neighboring nations of Ukraine and Belarus. All three nations have recorded their hottest temperatures in history over the past few weeks. Belarus, on the western border of Russia, recorded its hottest temperature in history on Saturday, August 7, when the mercury hit 38.9°C (102°F) in Gomel. This broke the all-time record for extreme heat set just one day before, the 38.7°C (101.7°F) recorded in Gorky. Prior to 2010, the hottest temperature ever recorded in Belarus was the 38.0°C (100.4°F) in Vasiliyevichy on Aug. 20, 1946. As I described in detail in Saturday's post, Belarus' new all-time extreme heat record gives the year 2010 the most national extreme heat records for a single year--seventeen. These nations comprise 19% of the total land area of Earth. This is the largest area of Earth's surface to experience all-time record high temperatures in any single year in the historical record. Looking back at the past decade, which was the hottest decade in the historical record, Seventy-five countries set extreme hottest temperature records (33% of all countries.) For comparison, fifteen countries set extreme coldest temperature records over the past ten years (6% of all countries). Earth has now seen four consecutive months with its warmest temperature on record, and the first half of 2010 was the warmest such 6-month period in the planet's history. It is not a surprise that many all-time extreme heat records are being shattered when the planet as a whole is so warm. Global warming "loads the dice" to favor extreme heat events unprecedented in recorded history.
Jeff Masters
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1571
Desta vez os cépticos do aquecimento global vão andar bem caladinhos!!! Os meteorologistas apontam para a pior vaga de calor dos últimos 1000 anos!!! A prova do aquecimento global está aqui!!!
Esta é a minha opinião!
Desculpem o off topic
Esta é a minha opinião!
Desculpem o off topic
Mário Barros
Furacão
Ainda não sabemos como será o Inverno, poderá haver um equilíbrio, poderá ser tão gravoso como a actual vaga de calor, mas na versão frio. Não pudemos sustentar uma teoria, baseando-nos apenas em meia dúzia de dados ou apenas num evento.
1337
Cumulonimbus
não tavas aqui no tempo dos dinossauros para saber qual era a temperatura em regioes como a russia
aquecimento global so se for na cabecinha de alguns
a natureza é mesmo assim ninguem manda nela nem nada a vai afetar
filipept
Cumulus
Hurricane, o hemisfério sul também está com anomalias negativas de temperatura e isso, por si, não é sinal de arrefacimento global. Esta é uma discussão sempre "quente"
basta ver o tópico "Há mesmo aquecimento global?" cá no forúm.Uma coisa chegamos a acordo: "weather is not climate", ou seja, tempo é uma coisa e clima é outra, em termos de análise.
Acredita, tenho seguido vários blogs (maioritariamente internacionais) e a discussão é bastante técnica e difícil. Os meus conhecimentos de fisica e matemática são muito fracos, tamanha é a complexidade.
Tenho uma opinião bastante vincada sobre isso, está no tópico mencionado
sim tb é verdade. eu por acaso adoro este tema e costumo ler muito sobre ele.
mas pronto é ver o que o futuro nos reserva.
mas pronto é ver o que o futuro nos reserva.
não tavas aqui no tempo dos dinossauros para saber qual era a temperatura em regioes como a russia
aquecimento global so se for na cabecinha de alguns
a natureza é mesmo assim ninguem manda nela nem nada a vai afetar
Nem é preciso tanto...a Tmed global está a descer, temos uma fase ENSO de lá niña e um PDO-..estamos com um sol ainda a acordar...temos um antartico a atingir niveis de gelo record e um artico com um degelo pouco preocupante...temos frio no sul da america do sul..
Parece lógico que os gases de estufa emanados por nós tendam a causar aquecimento...provavelmente sem esses estariamos com temperaturas mais baixas devido ao fraco input energetico do sol, mas efectivamente podemos colocar todas as perspectivas catastrofistas de lado.
Agora é ver no logo termo como se vai comportar a Tmed global com a manutenção da niña/PDO- e quiçá um AMO-...será que descerá muito nos proxs anos ou uma entrada mais vigorosa do actual ciclo solar 24 amenizará a descida?
Quanto ao calor na Russia...totalmente anormal ( principalmente ás latitudes que tem ocorrido e á duração) mas é de referir que a sinóptica que por lá se tem manifestado é "copy paste" da sinoptica da escaldante onda de calor na europa em 03.
Mais uma vez digo...a terra está um pouco ( algumas decimas) mais quente que o normal devido em parte ao ser humano mas tambem devido á conjugação de um padrão quente das teleconexões nos ultimos anos e do sol que tambem nos ultimos ciclos tem sido mais pujante que neste...tudo isto favorece ou melhor, intensifica estes episódios...agora resta ver como corre a coisa nos proximos tempos
Mais uma vez volto a ficar impressionado com a previsão europeia sazonal do Joe Bastardi (accuweather). Ele preveu um inverno muito frio e ocorreu (período de Dezembro a Fevereiro), ele preveu um verão fresco em 2009 e ocorreu, e um verão escaldante em 2010 e está a ocorrer.
Segundo ele as condições são similares às de 2003: NAO-, El Nino, circulação norte-atlântica e pacífica... resultando num inverno frio e num verão quente, para a europa em geral
Claro que é dificil apontar onde irá estar o calor, mas pelo menos a vaga de calor já atingiu Europa Central, Escandinávia e Rússia. E Portugal também teve um verão algo quente.
Segundo ele as condições são similares às de 2003: NAO-, El Nino, circulação norte-atlântica e pacífica... resultando num inverno frio e num verão quente, para a europa em geral
Claro que é dificil apontar onde irá estar o calor, mas pelo menos a vaga de calor já atingiu Europa Central, Escandinávia e Rússia. E Portugal também teve um verão algo quente.
Mário Barros
Furacão
A atenção agora está voltada para a região próxima de Chernobyl que está a arder, e que pode causar a libertação da catastrofe nuclear que ocorreu há algumas décadas.
Em tom sarcástico eu digo: talvez agora os russos deixem de gostar do aquecimento global que tanto defendiam...
Em tom sarcástico eu digo: talvez agora os russos deixem de gostar do aquecimento global que tanto defendiam...