Aquecimento Global

StormRic

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Surpreendente, ou talvez não, a subida das temperaturas superficiais oceânicas neste século (2000-2020) em comparação com a evolução ao longo do último século e meio (1870-2020), com destaque para os mares das costas europeias (Atlântico Norte, Mar do Norte, Mar Báltico, Mar Negro, Mar Mediterrâneo).


7enq3FM.png
 


StormRic

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joralentejano

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Pois, para além dos bloqueios no inverno cada vez mais recorrentes, penso que não é muito comum o anticiclone ter um núcleo de 1040hpa várias vezes em pleno verão, tal como tem acontecido até ao momento. Está claramente cada vez mais forte, o que é preocupante.
 
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guisilva5000

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Belas
Surpreendente, ou talvez não, a subida das temperaturas superficiais oceânicas neste século (2000-2020) em comparação com a evolução ao longo do último século e meio (1870-2020), com destaque para os mares das costas europeias (Atlântico Norte, Mar do Norte, Mar Báltico, Mar Negro, Mar Mediterrâneo).


7enq3FM.png
Os mares pela sua baixa profundidade e área, têm um efeito dominó. O Báltico está cada vez pior de ano para ano, as anomalias estão sempre +6ºC. Isto porque no Inverno as temperaturas já não descem a valores normais, logo no Verão disparam ainda mais... e vai continuar assim. O degelo no golfo de Bótnia ainda agora aconteceu e já há registos de 24ºC perto do circulo polar.

Exemplo desta estação a latitude 65ºNorte! Garantidamente a água mais quente perto de qualquer pólo terrestre.

NKLzw25.png


Os nórdicos cada vez vão menos precisar de fazer turismo a Sul, os mares deles estão cada vez mais próprios para turismo...
 

joralentejano

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Os mares pela sua baixa profundidade e área, têm um efeito dominó. O Báltico está cada vez pior de ano para ano, as anomalias estão sempre +6ºC. Isto porque no Inverno as temperaturas já não descem a valores normais, logo no Verão disparam ainda mais... e vai continuar assim. O degelo no golfo de Bótnia ainda agora aconteceu e já há registos de 24ºC perto do circulo polar.

Exemplo desta estação a latitude 65ºNorte! Garantidamente a água mais quente perto de qualquer pólo terrestre.

NKLzw25.png


Os nórdicos cada vez vão menos precisar de fazer turismo a Sul, os mares deles estão cada vez mais próprios para turismo...
Por falar em degelo, nesta imagem da anomalia da temperatura da água do mar que o @StormRic publicou no seguimento Europa, existe uma significativa anomalia negativa ao largo da Gronelândia. Será efeito do degelo?
jPqrheT.jpg


Sem dúvida que os mares do norte têm temperaturas cada vez melhores que Portugal. Nortada vai haver sempre e a tendência penso que seja também para ser cada vez mais intensa devido ao facto de a temperatura no interior da Península ser cada vez mais alta, aumentando o contraste. E claro, o Anticiclone cada vez mais forte, também potencia o fenómeno.
 

StormRic

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existe uma significativa anomalia negativa ao largo da Gronelândia. Será efeito do degelo?

Boa pergunta! Poderá resultar, pela entrada costeira dos materiais desprendidos, de um upwelling das águas profundas mais frias ou directamente pelo contacto? E numa faixa contígua e paralela à costa observa-se uma anomalia contrária, positiva, mas essa pode ser devida à sinóptica corrente com circulação de Sul. :intrigante:

ycOA0mC.jpg


UhlWrb7.gif


A nível global a situação presente das anomalias é esta, e provavelmente o AA está ancorado naquela extensa anomalia negativa do Atlântico Norte:

U797NaJ.png
 

joralentejano

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Boa pergunta! Poderá resultar, pela entrada costeira dos materiais desprendidos, de um upwelling das águas profundas mais frias ou directamente pelo contacto? E numa faixa contígua e paralela à costa observa-se uma anomalia contrária, positiva, mas essa pode ser devida à sinóptica corrente com circulação de Sul. :intrigante:

ycOA0mC.jpg


UhlWrb7.gif


A nível global a situação presente das anomalias é esta, e provavelmente o AA está ancorado naquela extensa anomalia negativa do Atlântico Norte:

U797NaJ.png
Acredito que seja! Quando vi o mapa, foi uma das coisas que me despertou logo à atenção e pensei que poderia ser influência desse fenómeno. Mas pronto, não sou muito entendido no assunto e pode ser uma situação provocada por outro fenómeno que se desconheça.

A anomalia presente ao longo do Atlântico na região dos Açores também não é favorável ao enfraquecimento do anticiclone. Vamos ver o que acontece até ao final do verão.
De notar também que o núcleo do anticiclone nos próximos dias irá localizar-se a Norte dos Açores onde a anomalia negativa é mais significativa. Já vejo anomalia negativa nessa zona há alguns anos…
 

Aristocrata

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Talvez sejam efeitos do enfraquecimento da Corrente do Golfo naquelas latitudes...

Meanwhile...
Every airport and port must close for climate – academics
Epá. Não consegui ler tudo.
Académicos, teóricos, fundamentalistas...Não!
Não pude ler mais, emissões zero é teoria do impossível.

Um mundo global que regride, porque não dão resposta para isso, acaba com as trocas comerciais\aviação civil entre continentes Europa-América.

Mas pronto, mais um exercício de "catedráticos" tão em voga, gente que vive num mundo à parte e que acha que uma maçã nasce debaixo de uma qualquer pedra que levantem.
 

StormRic

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Menciona as mortes em Portugal devido ao calor.


'Climate change affects everyone': Europe battles wildfires in intense heat​


By Guillermo Martinez

  • Summary
  • Climate scientists say heatwaves more frequent and more intense
  • Hundreds of deaths attributed to the heat in Portugal
  • Britain braced for hottest day on record
  • Temperatures reached 45.7C in Spain in recent days
JERTE, Spain July 17 (Reuters) - Authorities across southern Europe battled on Sunday to control huge wildfires in countries including Spain, Greece and France, with hundreds of deaths blamed on soaring temperatures that scientists say are consistent with climate change.

In Spain, helicopters dropped water on the flames as heat above 40 Celsius (104 Fahrenheit) and often mountainous terrain made the job harder for firefighters.

Shocked residents watching thick plumes of smoke rising above the central western Jerte valley said the heat was making their previously green and cool home more like Spain's semi-arid south.

"Climate change affects everyone," said resident Miguel Angel Tamayo.

A study published in June in the journal 'Environmental Research: Climate' concluded it was highly probable that climate change was making heatwaves worse. read more

More than 1,000 deaths have been attributed to the nearly week-long heatwave in Portugal and Spain so far. Temperatures in Spain have reached as high as 45.7C (114F).

Spain's weather agency issued temperature warnings for Sunday, with highs of 42 Celsius (108 Fahrenheit) forecast in Aragon, Navarra and La Rioja, in the north. It said the heatwave would end on Monday, but warned temperatures would remain "abnormally high".

Fires were raging in several other regions including Castille and Leon in central Spain and Galicia in the north on Sunday afternoon. Firefighters stabilised a blaze in Mijas, in Malaga province, and said evacuated people could return home.

British pensioners William and Ellen McCurdy had fled for safety with other evacuees in a local sport centre from their home on Saturday as the fire approached.

"It was very fast .... I didn’t take it too seriously. I thought they had it under control and I was quite surprised when it seemed to be moving in our direction," William, 68, told Reuters.

In France, wildfires have now spread over 11,000 hectares (27,000 acres) in the southwestern region of Gironde, and more than 14,000 people have been evacuated, regional authorities said on Sunday afternoon.

Wildfire rages as Spain experiences its second heatwave of the year

Wildfires in southwestern France

Wildfires in southwestern France

5/22
A firefighting truck works to contain a fire near Louchats, as wildfires continue to spread in the Gironde region of southwestern France, July 17, 2022. REUTERS/Sarah Meyssonnier

More than 1,200 firefighters were trying to control the blazes, the authorities said in a statement.

France issued red alerts, the highest possible, for several regions, with residents urged "to be extremely vigilant".

In Italy, where smaller fires have blazed in recent days, forecasters expect temperatures above 40C in several regions in coming days.

Similar temperatures were recorded in Portugal on Sunday and are forecast in Britain on Monday and Tuesday, in what would top its previous official record of 38.7C (102F) set in Cambridge in 2019.

Britain's national weather forecaster issued its first red "extreme heat" warning for parts of England. Rail passengers were advised to only travel if absolutely necessary and to expect widespread delays and cancellations.

DROUGHT IN PORTUGAL​



By Saturday, there were 360 heat-related deaths in Spain, according to figures from the Carlos III Health Institute.

Portugal was grappling with extreme drought even before the recent heatwave, according to data from the national meteorological institute. Some 96% of the mainland was already suffering severe or extreme drought at the end of June.

Emergency and Civil Protection Authority Commander Andre Fernandes urged people to take care not to ignite new fires in such bone-dry conditions.

In Greece the fire brigade said on Saturday 71 blazes had broken out within a 24-hour period.

Reporting by Guillermo Martinez, Layli Foroudi, Sergio Goncalves, Jessica Jones, Renee Maltezou, Jon Nazca and Mariano Valladolid Writing by Raissa Kasolowsky, Frances Kerry and Frank Jack Daniel Editing by Mark Potter, Philippa Fletcher and Gareth Jones
 
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StormRic

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"

Warming rivers threaten France's already tight power supply​


By Forrest Crellin

Steam rises from a cooling tower of the Electricite de France (EDF) nuclear power station in Dampierre-en-Burly

Steam rises from a cooling tower of the Electricite de France (EDF) nuclear power plant in Dampierre-en-Burly, France October 12, 2021. REUTERS/Benoit Tessier


PARIS, July 15 (Reuters) - High water temperatures threaten to reduce France's already unusually low nuclear output, piling more pressure on operator EDF (EDF.PA) at a time when half its reactors are offline due to maintenance and corrosion issues.
The valley between the Rhone and Garrone rivers has reached sweltering temperatures in recent days which are expected to hit around 40 degrees Celsius on Friday and remain above seasonal levels through early next week.

That is a problem because river water is often used to cool reactors before being returned at a higher temperature. Reactor production is limited during times of high heat to prevent the hot water re-entering rivers from damaging wildlife.
EDF has announced production restrictions at the Tricastin plant on the Rhone from July 16, the Blayais plant at the mouth of the Garrone from July 17, the Saint Alban plant on the Rhone from July 17, and the Bugey plant on the Rhone from July 19.

An extension of a recent output cut at the Golfech plant on the Garrone is also possible, Refinitiv analyst Nathalie Gerl said, adding data showed restrictions continued for several weeks during a similar powerful heatwave in 2018.
On Friday, French energy regulator ASN announced some modifications at the plants to guarantee a minimum power production level.
EDF has already been forced to cut planned output several times this year because of a host of problems at its reactors - and expects an 18.5 billion euros ($18.6 billion) hit to its 2022 core earnings because of production losses.

The French government is due to announce details of its plan to nationalise the indebted group, in which the state already owns 84%, by Tuesday.
The maximum river temperature before restrictions kick in at the Bugey plant is 26 degrees Celsius, while that at the Golfech, Tricastin and St. Alban plants is 28C, and Blayais is 30C.
Current nuclear availability is the lowest for at least four years because of corrosion problems and extended maintenance schedules at half of EDF's 56 reactors.
That means France is importing power at a time it would normally be exporting it and EDF is buying electricity at high market prices, just as Europe is scrambling to find alternative energy supplies to Russia.
Things could get worse in the winter, unless EDF can restore full production - though Refinitiv forecasts at this stage point to a rebound to more normal output levels in coming months.
The current rising temperatures are also causing demand for air conditioning to increase, which could add to the stress on the grid.
"Supply will get particularly tight next week with demand about 6 GWh/h above normal on Monday and Tuesday," Gerl said.
France is already importing quite heavily, from countries such as Spain, Switzerland, Germany and Britain. But exports to Italy could drop as a result, she added.
The power mix in France is diverse, with around 32% of production from wind, solar and hydro, grid operator RTE data show, so power production depends more on sun intensity and wind speeds than moderate temperatures.
However, rising river temperatures can have a knock-on effect as some coal-to-power stations also need cooling water from rivers and rely on rainfall or snowmelt to support river levels and allow unhindered coal barge transport.
If the amount of river water that can be used is limited to protect wildlife that can also curb vital water supply to coal stations and reduce production times and capacities.
The same goes for run-of-river hydroelectric power plants.
Low water levels after recent dry weather continue to prevent cargo vessels from sailing fully loaded on the Rhine in Germany, traders said.
EDF said on Friday high temperatures were unlikely to affect the performance of its British reactors."
Reporting by Forrest Crellin Additional reporting by Vera Eckert Editing by Silvia Aloisi and Mark Potter