Furacão GORDON (Atlântico 2012 #AL08)



FranciscoSR

FranciscoSR

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Recebi este e-mail agora do Inst. de Meteorologia:

**Aviso de Furacão - Gordon 2012.08.18 15:00 TUC**

Informação Meteorológica Comunicado válido entre 2012-08-18
14:40 e 2012-08-19 14:40 Aviso de Furacão - Gordon 2012.08.18 15:00
TUC A tempestade tropical Gordon intensificou-se durante as últimas
horas e prevê-se que entre no sector sudoeste da região marítima
dos Açores pelas 12h de Domingo 19 de agosto como furacão de
categoria I (escala de Saffir-Simpson), seguindo depois na direção
nordeste e atingindo a região do Grupo Oriental pelas 00h de
segunda-feira 20, afectando as ilhas de São Miguel e Santa Maria.
Nesta zona estão previstos ventos médios de 110 km/h com rajadas
até 150 km/h, precipitação intensa e ondas entre 14 e 16 m. Sáb,
18 Ago 2012 14:40:54
 
David sf

David sf

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Oeiras / VN Poiares
A actualização do NHC agravou ligeiramente a previsão, havendo uma pequena probabilidade neste momento de afectar o grupo oriental ainda como furacão de categoria 1, apesar de ser bastante mais provável que seja já uma tempestade tropical forte.

O NHC prevê ventos sustentados de cerca de 65 kts ( cerca de 120 km/h), precipitação entre os 3 e 6 inches (75 a 150 mm), durante a noite de domingo para segunda no grupo oriental dos Açores.

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GORDON ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

...GORDON MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 38.6W
ABOUT 700 MI...1130 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GORDON WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.6 WEST. GORDON IS
MOVING TOWARD THE EAST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE
CENTER OF GORDON WILL APPROACH THE EASTERN AZORES ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 80 MPH...130 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GORDON IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
GORDON REACHES COOLER WATERS ON SUNDAY. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN ON SUNDAY...AND GORDON IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR HURRICANE
STRENGTH WHEN IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN AZORES SUNDAY NIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM..MAINLY
TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND
OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES...205 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB...29.03 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AZORES BY LATE SUNDAY...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

RAINFALL...GORDON IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3
TO 6 INCHES OVER THE AZORES.

SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY GORDON ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN AZORES ON SUNDAY...CAUSING DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP
CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER
OFFICE FOR MORE INFORMATION.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM AST.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.

FORECASTER BRENNAN
Clique para expandir...

HURRICANE GORDON DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082012
1100 AM AST SAT AUG 18 2012

GORDON HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING. THE EYE HAS BECOME
A LITTLE MORE APPARENT IN GEOSTATIONARY IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND IS QUITE DISTINCT IN RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 70 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR GORDON
TO STRENGTHEN A BIT MORE BEFORE THE CYCLONE REACHES COOLER
WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAT HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POSSIBILITY AND THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY BY 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
CYCLONE FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE INCREASED SHEAR COMBINED WITH
COOLER SSTS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING. GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS
SHOW GORDON BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL BY 72 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 090/16...AS GORDON IS BEING STEERED
EASTWARD BY A DEEP LAYER CYCLONE WEST OF THE BRITISH ISLES. A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES GORDON AND THE LARGER DEEP-LAYER LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD. OVERALL THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS FASTER THIS CYCLE...
AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE NEW
NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND LIES
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS.

GIVEN THE NEW INTENSITY AND TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF
PORTUGAL HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
AZORES AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 34.1N 38.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 34.3N 35.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 35.0N 31.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 36.1N 27.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 37.4N 24.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 38.5N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z 38.5N 16.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

FORECASTER BRENNAN
Clique para expandir...

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF PORTUGAL HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZORES

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT
OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 38.6W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 110SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 240SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 38.6W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 39.6W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 34.3N 35.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.0N 31.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 36.1N 27.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 130SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 37.4N 24.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 110SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 38.5N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 38.5N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 38.6W

FORECASTER BRENNAN
Clique para expandir...
 
Gerofil

Gerofil

Furacão
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Imagem de satélite SAT24 para o Grupo Oriental dos Açores:

zoomimage.ashx
 
M

Membro excluído 274

De facto em estrutura ganhou muito nas últimas horas!

webexterna_NAmerica_[15-00].jpg


Evolução previstas pelos vários modelos:

aal082012081812intensit.png


Provavelmente chegará aos Açores como Cat1, muito no limite mas com Cat1 ou pelo menos como Tempestade Tropical forte!:rain::rain::rain:
 
Vince

Vince

Furacão
Registo
23 Jan 2007
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Braga
Diferença de alguns nós entre Tempestade tropical forte ou furacão fraco não é assim tão relevante, uma coisa não passa de má para boa, só por causa de uma classificação.

Animação da previsão do vento no GFS, dá pelo menos para ter uma ideia das horas a que as coisas podem acontecer:
http://www.meteopt.com/previsao/modelos/gfs/peninsula-iberica


cbu29.gif



As previsões ainda podem mudar em baixa, para já o Gordon parece estar estável, ainda não há sinais de enfraquecimento.

Pena que não possa haver voos de reconhecimento nesta região, seria importante saber o que se passa pois as estimativas por satélite nem sempre estão correctas. Talvez a tal boiá ajude a validar dados.
 
icewoman

icewoman

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Boa tarde,


No site do IM menciona que as ondas deverão atingir uma altura entre os 14 a 16metros:surprise:

Nunca tinha visto uma previsão assim...
 
Knyght

Knyght

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Orion disse:
Nestas alturas um radar meteorológico dava jeito...
Clique para expandir...

Não é tão cedo que passamos a ser Portugueses de Primeira. Podemos ter buracos mas investimento estatal foi, é e será ZERO
 
Knyght

Knyght

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icewoman

icewoman

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Comunicado válido entre 2012-08-18 14:40:00 e 2012-08-19 14:40:00
Assunto: Aviso de Furacão - Gordon 2012.08.18 15:00 TUC
A tempestade tropical Gordon intensificou-se durante as últimas horas e prevê-se que entre no sector sudoeste da região marítima dos Açores pelas 12h de Domingo 19 de agosto como furacão de categoria I (escala de Saffir-Simpson), seguindo depois na direção nordeste e atingindo a região do Grupo Oriental pelas 00h de segunda-feira 20, afectando as ilhas de São Miguel e Santa Maria. Nesta zona estão previstos ventos médios de 110 km/h com rajadas até 150 km/h, precipitação intensa e ondas entre 14 e 16 m.

Data de edição: 2012-08-18 14:40:54
http://www.meteo.pt/pt/otempo/comunicados/index.jsp
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