Furacão JOAQUIN (Atlântico 2015 #AL11)



StormRic

Furacão
Registo
23 Jun 2014
Mensagens
23,023
Local
Póvoa de S.Iria (alt. 140m)
O furacão mantém-se estável na intensidade. Olho continua mal definido nas imagens de satélite. Passa sobre Cockburn Town nesta altura.

Ventos máximos de 215 Km/h, rajadas superiores.

000
WTNT31 KNHC 021742
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JOAQUIN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS JOAQUIN MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR RUM CAY AND
SAN SALVADOR IN THE BAHAMAS...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 74.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM N OF RUM CAY BAHAMAS
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF SAN SALVADOR BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB
...27.82 INCHES



DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Joaquin was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 74.8 West. Joaquin is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (8 km/h), and this general
motion should continue this afternoon. A turn toward the northeast
is expected tonight with an increase in forward speed. On the
forecast track, the core of the strongest winds of Joaquin will
continue moving over portions of the central and northwestern
Bahamas today. Joaquin will begin to move away from the Bahamas
tonight and Saturday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Joaquin is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next 24 hours. Slow weakening is expected to
begin on Saturday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 942 mb (27.82 inches). A Bahamas Meteorology Department
station on San Salvador recently reported a pressure of 969.9 mb
(28.63 inches).

Joaquin não vai afectar a costa Leste do continente. A situação de chuva e inundações deve-se a um sistema frontal sobre a costa. A influência do furacão resume-se à circulação conjunta com o anticiclone e aos ventos marítimos gerados, mas mantém-se muito longe da costa e sem qualquer acção directa.
 
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StormRic

Furacão
Registo
23 Jun 2014
Mensagens
23,023
Local
Póvoa de S.Iria (alt. 140m)
De acordo com a SIC, o Joaquin está a enfraquecer e já não é um furacão :intrigante:

A sério que na SIC disseram isso? E era suposto ser para o momento presente ou alguma projecção futura? :facepalm:

Só daqui a três dias (72 horas) está previsto baixar para a categoria de tempestade tropical. Neste momento mantém-se no limite entre categoria 2 e 3, por mais 12 horas segundo a previsão do NHC.

Última actualização há pouco:

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022055
TCDAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
500 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015

Satellite imagery and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that Joaquin has weakened a little since
the last advisory, with the central pressure rising to 942 mb.
Based on this, the initial intensity is decreased to 110 kt.
Subsequent observations from San Salvador Island and dropsondes from
a NASA aircraft suggest the pressure is still near 942 mb. While
the hurricane continues to produce cold cloud tops in the eyewall,
the convective pattern currently looks ragged in infrared imagery,
and only occasional hints of a eye are apparent in visible imagery.

The initial motion is now 360/6. Water vapor imagery shows a mid-
to upper-level ridge to the north and northeast of the hurricane,
while a deep-layer trough and associated surface front are located
over the southeastern United States. This system is forecast to
move slowly eastward with a non-tropical low forming along the
front during the next couple of days. While this occurs, a mid- to
upper-level low currently centered near 30N 64W should move
west-northwestward to the north of Joaquin. These developments
should steer Joaquin northward for the next few hours, followed by
a turn toward the northeast. The track guidance is now in good
agreement that Joaquin will move generally northeastward between
the United States and Bermuda, with a short-lived northward turn in
the 48-72 hour period. Eventually, the cyclone is expected to
move into the westerlies and move quickly east-northeastward across
the North Atlantic. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous forecast and now lies near the consensus models.

Joaquin is forecast to remain in an environment of light vertical
wind shear for another 12-24 hours or so, and during this time some
fluctuations in intensity are possible. After 24 hours, the shear is
forecast to increase, which should start a steady weakening.
Extratropical transition is expected to begin around 96 hours and be
complete by 120 hours. Overall, the new intensity forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and lies near the intensity
consensus.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Hurricane conditions over portions of the Bahamas should
continue for several more hours.

2. Swells from a hurricane moving even far offshore of the U.S.
east coast can still cause life-threatening surf and rip-current
conditions. Please see products from your local National Weather
Service forecast office. For information on the heavy rains
occurring along the U.S. Atlantic states that are mostly unrelated
to Hurricane Joaquin, please see products from the NWS Weather
Prediction Center and your local forecast office.

3. Since the direct threat of hurricane conditions to land areas
is diminishing significantly, this will be the last set of key
messages unless the threat increases.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 24.1N 74.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 25.1N 73.9W 110 KT 125 MPH

24H 03/1800Z 26.9N 72.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 29.2N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 31.7N 68.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 36.5N 67.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 40.5N 60.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 45.0N 46.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

Como previsto o olho passou praticamente sobre Rum Cay e San Salvador:

QbwBRuj.gif


mfJ2bUA.gif


É grande a distância a que o furacão passará da costa Leste e cada vez menor a probabilidade de a afectar directamente. Curiosamente até faz um S como que para evitar a Bermuda.

Db3Lwzp.gif
 

lserpa

Cumulonimbus
Registo
29 Dez 2013
Mensagens
4,046
Local
Horta, Matriz, (90m)
De acordo com a SIC, o Joaquin está a enfraquecer e já não é um furacão :intrigante:
Estúpidos como uma porta OMG, o que é que custa verem notícias do weather channel? Assim evitavam cair na tolice
 

TiagoLC

Super Célula
Registo
15 Jul 2015
Mensagens
7,338
Local
Carnaxide, Oeiras
A sério que na SIC disseram isso? E era suposto ser para o momento presente ou alguma projecção futura? :facepalm:

Só daqui a três dias (72 horas) está previsto baixar para a categoria de tempestade tropical. Neste momento mantém-se no limite entre categoria 2 e 3, por mais 12 horas segundo a previsão do NHC.

Última actualização há pouco:



Como previsto o olho passou praticamente sobre Rum Cay e San Salvador:

QbwBRuj.gif


mfJ2bUA.gif


É grande a distância a que o furacão passará da costa Leste e cada vez menor a probabilidade de a afectar directamente. Curiosamente até faz um S como que para evitar a Bermuda.

Db3Lwzp.gif
Por acaso eles estavam a contradizer-se, porque a jornalista dizia que o Joaquin ainda era um furacão e que iria enfraquecer, mas a legenda dizia que já tinha passado para tempestade tropical :facepalm:
 

StormRic

Furacão
Registo
23 Jun 2014
Mensagens
23,023
Local
Póvoa de S.Iria (alt. 140m)
Duas fotos tiradas pela ISS:

Espectaculares, terá sido esta noite passada, até se vêem relâmpagos, as estrelas e a luminescência da alta atmosfera.

Categoria 4 nessa altura, estrutura divergente em altitude perfeita.

Na foto de cima, Miami na costa da Florida ao centro, Nassau um pouco acima, Cuba por trás dos painéis solares.

Na de baixo, Miami está no canto superior esquerdo. Os relâmpagos parecem ser sobre a Hispaniola (Haiti/Rep.Dominicana).
 
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Teles

Cumulonimbus
Registo
7 Dez 2007
Mensagens
2,212
Local
Rio Maior
Hurricane Joaquin: Cargo Ship Missing With 33 Crew Members Aboard

A U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue mission is underway
in the dangerous waters of the Atlantic, due to Hurricane Joaquin. A cargo ship named El Faro, was lost in the hurricane Thursday morning. It was traveling from Jacksonville, Florida to San Juan, Puerto Rico. According to the Coast Guard, El Faro was carrying 33 crew members when the ship sent a satellite notification to the Coast Guard Atlantic Area command center that the ship had lost propulsion and taken on water near Crooked Island, Bahamas. The Coast Guard’s 7th district in Miami sent an aircrew to search for the cargo ship, but were unable to reestablish communication. Coast Guard crews remain on scene and will continue search efforts Friday by both air and sea

http://news.weathernationtv.com/201...in-cargo-ship-missing-33-crew-members-aboard/
 

StormRic

Furacão
Registo
23 Jun 2014
Mensagens
23,023
Local
Póvoa de S.Iria (alt. 140m)
Hurricane Joaquin: Cargo Ship Missing With 33 Crew Members Aboard

A U.S. Coast Guard search and rescue mission is underway

in the dangerous waters of the Atlantic, due to Hurricane Joaquin. A cargo ship named El Faro, was lost in the hurricane Thursday morning. It was traveling from Jacksonville, Florida to San Juan, Puerto Rico. According to the Coast Guard, El Faro was carrying 33 crew members when the ship sent a satellite notification to the Coast Guard Atlantic Area command center that the ship had lost propulsion and taken on water near Crooked Island, Bahamas. The Coast Guard’s 7th district in Miami sent an aircrew to search for the cargo ship, but were unable to reestablish communication. Coast Guard crews remain on scene and will continue search efforts Friday by both air and sea

http://news.weathernationtv.com/201...in-cargo-ship-missing-33-crew-members-aboard/

http://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/details/ships/shipid:454389/mmsi:368208000/vessel:EL FARO

Confirma-se a perda de seguimento pelo MarineTraffic.

GNxQ8Qa.gif
 
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StormRic

Furacão
Registo
23 Jun 2014
Mensagens
23,023
Local
Póvoa de S.Iria (alt. 140m)
Até às 23:42 de dia 30, o navio prosseguia a sua rota. Na posição seguinte reaparece cerca de 100 Km para trás na mesma rota, às 03:49 de dia 1.

É estranho, a posição assinalada no mapa não está sequer de acordo com a tabela de posições. Pela tabela a rota não se altera até às 3:49, a latitude N e a longitude W decrescem regularmente, uma rota sueste portanto. Apenas 12 minutos depois salta para uma posição a mais de 200 Km para trás?? A rota no mapa a partir das 23:42 não existe e a última posição comunicada é impossível. A própria tabela é impossível.
 
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