The study: I have read it.
It says: the heatisle effect is clearly visible there. 2-3 C for the minimum temperature.
Do you see anything in this study relating warming and subsequent cooling to other factors than those within the city and nearby stations?? Do you think the climate in Athens has been stable all the time? What if the trend was one of cooling between 1950 and 1980 in the whole region (500*500 km for instance). The study doesn't mention that.
It does not mention either that SO2 effects are local and that they tend to cool nearby places. They didn't mention it because at that time it was virtually unknown.
http://www.newscientist.com/article...rate-of-warming.html?feedId=online-news_rss20
Now the amount of SO2 have steadily risen during the century, especially where it emitted (cities with industry and cars) and have dropped sharply in the last decade. This means that, more than on average, in cities the SO2 effect had a cooling effect. SO2, as I said, is not well mixed. CO2 you can measure everywhere and you get about the same result. SO2 has its highest values where it is emitted and as can be read it has a direct cooling effect by reflecting solar rays.
Just by looking at the temperatures and looking at the behaviour of the temperature and then concluding that daytime max have not gone up because the heatisle effect is cancelled, is therefor not sure to say the least.
The cooling effect does not occur at night as there are no rays to reflect.
At day, the effect will be bigger.
The study is just too old. It does also not use any model to substantiate the (wellknown, that is not the point) marine influence in detail. They just say: no rise during 1960-1982: we cannot come up with anything else than a seabreeze so that is probably it.
Of course the marine influence is bigger in summer, but you cannot say it cancelles the warming. And now, we see a sharp rise in temperatures. Would
they now say that the city effecthas kicked in?
Elefsis is named as suburban and suburban areas are prown to heatisle effects, that is correct.
The study should have done this:
- Get a clear picture of the temperature trends throughout the region (say greece, SOuthern Italy and westenr Turkey) from rural stations.
- Then subtract the trend.
- They also porbably didn't know as well as we do know how the heatisle effec talready kicks in with just a few inhabitants and I mean well below the 50000 thouand mentioned in this study.
And that is probably it: this station has always been affected by the heatisle effect.
Now that the air is leaning up in Athens as well, we might see a sharper rise there than elsewhwere if the SO2 story is correct.
There seems to be some contradiction in their analyses as well if WE look at it.
So the seabreeze is so dominant that it cancelles out the city effect. That is a marine influence. But youy, otoh, show us that just this place is the warmest in Greece. Even places that do not have the sea next to the door. They also indicates that the seainfluence travells well well inland.
How can that be: a seabreeze that does not prevent a city near the coast being cooler during daytime than nearby, inland stations?
Look at Murcia: is this on average the warmest place in Spain in summer at day. No, not at all. BEcause the seabreeze prevents it. For some reason it doesn't happen in Athens. BEcause, in my conviction, the seabreeze does cancel out a further warming of the heatisle, but not enough. ANd therefor Athens is warmer than Trikkala or other cities.
That is my honest view.
Finally talking to people about how wamr it is: heatindices and windchill indicate hwo usefull humans are as themometers....Useless for this kind of influences.
