Política e economia internacional 2015

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Se Portugal tivesse um fundo soberano como o norueguês ou se o nosso sector privado estivesse bem capitalizado seria muito interessante que aproveitássemos a oportunidade para comprar terras agrícolas na Ucrânia.

Portugal tem um problema histórico de carência de cereais, devido ao tipo de solos que temos. Poderemos ser grandes produtores de carne, vinhos, azeite, frutas ou verduras mas nunca poderemos nem deveremos ir longe na produção de cereais, sob pena de destruirmos o que restou após as campanhas do trigo. Já Salazar defendia há 100 anos que Portugal não deveria apostar na cultura de cereais, e que o caminho era a aposta na horto-fruticultura.
 




A Índia vai criar um sistema de segurança social universal, anunciou hoje o ministro das Finanças, durante a apresentação do primeiro orçamento completo, para 2015/2016, do governo de Narendra Modi

http://observador.pt/2015/02/28/india-vai-criar-sistema-de-seguranca-social-universal/

Singapore is raising the top marginal tax rate to 22 percent from 20 percent, the finance minister said in his budget speech on Monday, the first such increase in decades. Taking effect from 2017, the rate applies to those with a taxable income of more than S$320,000 ($235,000) a year, with smaller adjustments for others among the top 5% of earners. It will help fund more welfare spending and payouts for the elderly, the government said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-status-intact-even-with-increase-for-wealthy
 
Germany's Commerzbank AG is paying $1.71 billion in agreements with U.S. and New York authorities for alleged violations of U.S. sanctions against countries including Iran and lapses in prevention of money laundering.
Commerzbank will avoid criminal prosecution by the U.S. Justice Department and the New York City district attorney's office under the agreements announced Thursday. The bank admits responsibility for the violations and promised to establish strict internal controls.

The total $1.71 billion in fines and forfeiture is close to the landmark $1.9 billion settlement by HSBC, Europe's largest bank, of similar allegations in 2012.

Commerzbank is paying a $79 million fine and forfeiting $563 million in the Justice Department agreement, $258 million to the Treasury Department, $200 million to the Federal Reserve and $610 million to New York state.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/1d3e...erzbank-paying-171b-settle-cases-us-sanctions

Italy urged its European Union partners Thursday to set up migrant reception centers in northern Africa as efforts to beef up the EU's borders agency falter amid an unprecedented influx of asylum seekers.

At a meeting of EU interior ministers, France, Germany and Austria voiced support for the proposal which could see would-be migrants screened in Niger, Tunisia, Morocco or perhaps Egypt.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/c5eb...studies-ways-strengthen-borders-deal-migrants







 
Liquidity problems? Greece’s official creditors had a genius idea. They apparently proposed to Athens to halt the payment of salaries and pensions for one to two months. This would allegedly tackle the problem of liquidity and find a solution to Greek problem of how to pay back bailout loan tranches to creditors when suffering from liquidity problems.

“When we say that we have liquidity problems, they tells us to make no payment of salaries and pensions for one or two months,” Panariti said as quoted by Greek media.

The creditors’ proposal was revealed by Varoufakis’ aide Elena Panarity at an event of the Deree College on Thursday and was confirmed by Finance Ministry officials on Friday.

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/20...Feed:+KeepTalkingGreece+(Keep+Talking+Greece)


Facebook slammed after advertising funeral directors to a CANCER patient: Promotions appeared after sufferer Googled disease

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencet...otions-appeared-sufferer-Googled-disease.html
 
Resumo extenso:

Ukraine has placed a formal request with the UN for a peacekeeping mission to be deployed in the country’s eastern regions, AP reported. The size and scope of the proposed mission will be worked out in consultation with the UN, Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevgeny Perebeynis said Friday. The preliminary request for the mission has been submitted to the UN secretary-general and another would follow after Ukraine’s parliament approves the proposal. A mission would need backing from all five permanent members of the Security Council – the US, the UK, France, Russia and China.

Eighty-eight percent of Russians approve of Vladimir Putin’s activities as president, according to a poll conducted by the Russian Public Opinion Research Center (VTsIOM). Seven percent of those polled disapprove of Putin’s work, TASS quoted VTsIOM Director-General Valery Fyodorov as saying on Friday. He added that 65 percent of respondents trust Putin, which is the highest result over 15 years. Respondents say the main achievements have been stability in the country (15 percent), the reunification of Crimea and Russia (14 percent), strengthening Russia’s position in the world and improving citizens’ wellbeing (11 percent each).

Israel’s center-left opposition is poised for an upset victory in national elections next week, Reuters reported. The last opinion polls before the March 17 vote give the opposition a solid lead over Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s rightist Likud party. Polls in two of Israel’s leading newspapers predicted the Zionist Union would secure 25 or 26 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, against 21 or 22 for Likud. In the past three days, all polls have given the same margin of victory. No party has ever won an outright majority in the country’s 67-year history.

The heads of self-proclaimed republics in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk and Lugansk Regions (DPR and LPR) on Friday urged Germany and France to exert pressure on authorities in Kiev to implement the Minsk peace agreements. Aleksandr Zakharchenko and Igor Plotnitsky said Berlin and Paris should impose economic and personal sanctions on a number of Ukraine’s leaders, including Prime Minister Arseny Yatsenyuk, “for crimes against humanity,” TASS reported. As a result of Ukraine’s aggression, economies of DPR, LPR are “on the edge of collapse,” according to a joint statement of the republics’ heads.

http://rt.com/news/line/2015-03-13/#83717

The secretary of state of the Vatican, Cardinal Pietro Parolin, has met with Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka to discuss bilateral ties.
The Belarusian Foreign Ministry said the talks were held on March 13, a day after Parolin's arrival in Minsk.

Lukashenka stressed during the talks that his country enjoys inter-religious concord and Belarusian Catholics are given all opportunities to practice their faith.

http://www.rferl.org/content/senior-vatican-official-holds-talks-in-belarus/26899121.html

Hamid Karzai: Afghanistan in danger of sliding 'under thumb' of Pakistan

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...gn-policy-pakistan-taliban-ashraf-ghani-india









 


The Bahraini uprising in 2011 was, in terms of a percentage of population, by some estimates, the most popularly supported mass revolt of all Arab Spring countries. It threatened not only the Khalifas, the Sunni family that has ruled the country for centuries but also the dynastic systems of other Persian Gulf nations. To keep the Khalifas on their throne, the Saudis sent in their national guard, the Emiratis sent police forces, and the Kuwaitis sent their navy to patrol the borders of the small island nation. The U.S. Navy, which has maintained a permanent naval presence since 1947, was already there. In addition to the estimated 5,000 Saudi and Emirati forces, about 7,000 American military personnel are stationed less than 10 miles from the Pearl Roundabout, the center of the country’s protest movement — Bahrain’s equivalent to Tahrir Square.

While Bahraini officials pointed to the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to justify the deployment, the GCC was founded to protect the six member states against external threats. But the pro-democracy movement in Bahrain was entirely an internal affair. Although Bahraini leaders tried to claim the domestic unrest was an Iranian conspiracy, they could provide no evidence to support this claim. Just three days after Saudi and Emirati forces crossed the border, all seven Bahraini opposition groups signed a declaration condemning the intervention and demanding their withdrawal.

At the time, officials claimed that the forces were there merely to protect vital installations such as oil fields, not to squash the pro-democracy movement. That remained the responsibility of the Bahraini police. But with the death of an Emirati police officer earlier this month, it has become clear that the foreign troops are in fact involved in putting down protests.

The fact that Emiratis — not Bahrainis or naturalized citizens — are engaged in policing in Bahrain is disconcerting. Imagine German police being sent to quash a rebellion in Poland under the guise of NATO. Imagine Russian police patrolling the streets of Kiev at the behest of ousted President Viktor Yanukovich. We would hear no end of it. But the Saudi and Emirati forces in Bahrain have largely stayed off the radar of the international media. Is this because Bahrain is a small country in the Middle East and not a big country in Europe? Perhaps. But it is also due to the regime’s strategy of systematically shutting out journalists and outside observers, as documented by Bahrain Watch.

http://america.aljazeera.com/opinions/2014/3/bahrain-uprisinginterventionsaudiarabiaemirates.html

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Under its new monarch, Saudi Arabia appears to be moving to improve relations with Turkey and Qatar and soften its stance against the Muslim Brotherhood with the aim of weakening Iran. The shift could lead to pressure on its ally Egypt to reconcile with them as well.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi — so far — has appeared to resist any reconciliation with Turkey and Qatar, the two top regional backers of el-Sissi's No. 1 nemesis, the Muslim Brotherhood. El-Sissi rose to the presidency after, as army chief, he led the military's 2013 ouster of Mohammed Morsi, a Brotherhood leader elected Egypt's president a year earlier. Since the ouster, el-Sissi has led a fierce crackdown on Islamists, crushing the Brotherhood and branding it a terrorist organization, while Egyptian media have depicted Turkey and Qatar as trying to destabilize Egypt by backing the group.

The new Saudi king, Salman, who rose to throne after his half-brother Abdullah's Jan. 23 death, appears to view the greater threat as Iran or extremist groups like al-Qaida and the Islamic State group. Turkey and Qatar both could give a boost to a front against those opponents.

Salman and el-Sissi discussed the issue of Egypt's relations with Qatar and Turkey, according to Egyptian officials familiar with the talks. El-Sissi told his host that the two's policies continue to spread violence and terror in the region. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

As part of their growing alliance, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf nations have given Egypt billions of dollars to prop up its crippled economy. Still, there have been divergences between Egypt and Saudi Arabia — most particularly over Syria. Saudi Arabia seeks the removal of Iranian-backed Syrian President Bashar Assad. That is one reason for its closing ranks with Qatar and Turkey, which both back factions fighting Assad.

El-Sissi, meanwhile, consistently has avoided saying whether Egypt objects to Assad remaining in power. Earlier this year, he had a very public reconciliation with Qatar, but then ties cooled once more.

http://news.yahoo.com/under-king-saudi-interests-may-diverge-egypt-165222017.html

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O Presidente da Turquia, Recep Tayip Erdogan, afirmou hoje que a União Europeia (UE) deve aceitar o seu país como membro se quiser demonstrar que é contra a islamofobia.

http://www.dn.pt/inicio/globo/interior.aspx?content_id=4360797

O presidente turco, Tayyip Erdogan, criticou nesta sexta-feira países europeus que condenaram a deterioração da liberdade de imprensa na Turquia, afirmando que eles deveriam encontrar uma solução para o que classificou como o crescimento de um sentimento de "islamofobia" no continente europeu.

http://br.reuters.com/article/worldNews/idBRKBN0K411S20141226

Um jovem, de 23 anos, foi conenado a 14 meses de prisão na Turquia por chamar «ditador» ao atual presidente turco, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, quando este assumia o cargo de primeiro-ministro da Turquia

http://www.abola.pt/mundos/ver.aspx?id=536506

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Royal Bank of Scotland and Barclays are facing penalties of about $1bn (£662m) each from US authorities for their alleged role in the manipulation of currency markets.

The US Justice Department is looking to fine four banks RBS, Barclays, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase to settle accusations of criminal activity in the currency markets.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...448/US-seeking-1bn-from-RBS-and-Barclays.html

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Support for a Chinese-led development bank is growing despite US opposition, with Australia indicating that it could join the UK and New Zealand as a founding member.

Analysts predicted that others would follow Britain’s surprise decision to put its weight behind the new $50bn institution, despite the US making its irritation clear in an unusual public rebuke.

The Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) , which is designed to provide funds to the Asia-Pacific region, is viewed with suspicion in Washington, where it is seen as a rival to the World Bank and a possible instrument of Chinese soft power in the region.

One US official told the Financial Times: “We are wary about a trend toward constant accommodation of China, which is not the best way to engage a rising power.”

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...e-us-opposition-australia-uk-new-zealand-asia
 
Even the IMF itself has expressed serious doubts that the Ukrainian loan program can succeed. A report published on March 12, a day after the loan package was announced, says there are "exceptionally high risks" to the program ever succeeding.

The report says a positive outcome is contingent on at least a couple of factors outside the country's control.

The main factor is the ongoing conflict with Russia in the east of the country. While a shaky cease-fire continues to hold, the IMF has said in the past a return to major fighting would jeopardize future loan payments.

The report also says success depends on Ukraine's ability to renegotiate its existing loans with public and private creditors.

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-imf-package-promises-pain-maybe-gain/26899475.html

The European Central Bank's bond purchases will create an unsustainable stock market rally and are unlikely to boost euro zone investments, Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis warned on Saturday.

"QE is all around us and optimism is in the air," Varoufakis told a business audience in Italy. "At the risk to sound the party pooper ... I find it hard to understand how the broadening of the monetary base in our fragmented and fragmenting monetary union will transform itself into a substantial increase in productive investments.

"The result of this is going to be an equity run boost that will prove unsustainable," he said.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/14/us-ecb-qe-varoufakis-idUSKBN0MA0H120150314



 
Os governos ocidentais e os escandinavos vão ser os próximos a ser acusados de anti-semitismo:

Benjamin Netanyahu has accused ‘Western governments, and mostly Scandinavian’ of trying to remove him from power by spending millions of dollars on meddling with Israeli upcoming elections where Israel's prime minister is facing a tough challenge.

"Scandinavian governments have spent millions of dollars on a campaign to remove me from power," he said in an interview on the Kol Israel radio station.

http://rt.com/news/240697-netanyahu-scandinavia-accuse-elections/

Para o prémio de propaganda do dia:

Poroshenko para os media alemães:

Ukraine's president accused Russian-backed separatists in the east of failing to respect a ceasefire with Ukrainian troops and called for further sanctions on Russia in comments to a German newspaper to be published on Monday.

"Ukraine has fulfilled every single point of the Minsk agreement. The ceasefire has been implemented immediately on our part, but the Russian fighters have done the exact opposite," Petro Poroshenko told the Bild newspaper.

"Every day, there is shooting from the Russian side, often more than 60 times a day. In total, the ceasefire has been broken 1,100 times," he said. "The truth is that the agreement is not working."

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/15/us-ukraine-crisis-ceasefire-idUSKBN0MB0OY20150315

Poroshenko para os media ucranianos:

Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko said in a television interview that the deescalation process in the eastern part of his country is taking hold.

Appearing on the 1+1 television channel on March 13, Poroshenko said, "We have not had military losses for several days…this is a clear indication of a gradual deescalation."

http://www.rferl.org/content/poroshenko-confirms-deescalation-in-progress/26899999.html

Os media russos estão a usar como propaganda mais um clip de um ex-general americano. A solução dele? Matar russos em massa:

 
Última edição:
Mueller’s sentiment is shared by a majority of Germans. A poll published March 13 by public broadcaster ZDF found 52 percent of his countrymen no longer want Greece to remain in Europe’s common currency, up from 41 percent last month. The shift is due to a view held by 80 percent of Germans that Greece’s government “isn’t behaving seriously toward its European partners.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ed-of-greek-demands-want-country-to-exit-euro

Isto quando:

Italy’s debt load is now €2.1659 trillion, the Bank of Italy said Friday. The country’s public debt increased by €31 billion in January, bringing the total close to the record-high of €2.1677 billion euro recorded in July 2014.

Italy’s public debt is only second to Greece in the eurozone

Gross domestic product to debt in Italy is near 132 percent, compared to 127.9 percent in 2013, or 102 percent two years ago. Italy, the third largest economy in Europe, has had its economic woes overshadowed by the looming crisis in Greece.

http://rt.com/business/240497-italy-debt-gdp-ratio/

E um assunto recorrente:

A representação portuguesa da Comissão Europeia promoveu um encontro em que participaram a presidente do Conselho das Finanças Públicas Teodora Cardoso, a presidente do IGCP Cristina Casalinho e os economistas Paulo Trigo Pereira, Mario Centeno e Ricardo Cabral. Objectivo: contribuir com propostas para melhorar a governação da Zona Euro.

Além disso, quando se olha para a história verifica-se que nunca ninguém cumpriu essas regras o que cria um problema de credibilidade. Desenhou-se um alter-ego, aquilo que a Zona Euro gostava que os países que a compõem fossem e não aquilo que consegue fazer, disse ainda um dos participantes. A história da EU é uma história de falta de reputação das regras, realçou um dos participantes vivendo-se desde há alguns anos numa aplicação à "la carte". Os exemplos vão desde o caso português, o primeiro país a violar o Pacto de Estabilidade, que mereceu uma avaliação dentro das regras que foram depois esquecidas quando o desrespeito chegou da Alemanha. Ou ainda exemplos que se vivem hoje em que se aplicam umas regras à Grécia, outras a Portugal outras ainda à Irlanda.

E o 'melhor' de tudo:

O caminho no sentido de uma maior integração foi igualmente considerado como necessário. Precisamos de um orçamento federal mas para isso temos de deixar os estados falirem, defendeu um dos participantes considerando que a Zona Euro precisa também de ter uma política militar. Numa união a provisão de bens públicos é o mais importante, sublinhou. E do orçamento federal passou-se para a necessidade de a Europa cobrar impostos.

http://www.jornaldenegocios.pt/econ...se_ser_mais_simples_defendem_economistas.html

Quanto ao EI:

'Ancient' statues filmed being destroyed by depraved Islamic State militants in a Mosul museum last month were nothing more than worthless fakes, the director of an Iraqi museum has claimed.

The terrorist organisation released shocking footage at the end of February purportedly showing jihadis destroying 3,000-year-old artworks with sledgehammers in their northern Iraqi stronghold.

But now Baghdad museum director Fawzye al-Mahdi has ridiculed ISIS' propaganda exercise, claiming the genuine priceless Assyrian and Akkadian statues and sculptures are still safely in his possession in the Iraqi capital, adding that those in Mosul were plaster cast replicas.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...red-Baghdad-claims-Iraqi-museum-director.html

E ainda:

Islamic State fighters are shaving off their beards and dressing as women in a bid to escape from battle, Iraqi forces have claimed.

A series of pictures have emerged showing men who have reportedly been caught trying to escape from northern Iraq wearing dresses, bras and make-up.

The photographs, posted on Instagram, show authorities appearing to pull back burkas to reveal young boys and even men with moustaches.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...sing-attempt-flee-battlefield-unhindered.html


Islamic State executioner Jihadi John watches Teletubbies and Game of Thrones, it has been claimed.

Freed French hostage Nicolas Henin revealed Kuwaiti-born Briton Mohammed Emwazi and his jihadi cronies would spend hours watching television.

He said: “ They watched everything, from Teletubbies to Game of Thrones.

“The recruits are fragile people - once pushed to commit a crime when they arrive there is no way they can turn back.”

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/mohammed-emwazi-jihadi-john-isis-5305807
 
Notícia muito interessante num jornal alemão.

http://deutsche-wirtschafts-nachric...-wollen-deutsch-russische-allianz-verhindern/

No Google tradutor:

Stratfor: US quer impedir russo-alemão aliança

O chefe da agência de inteligência privada Stratfor revelou em primeiro lugar que o governo dos EUA considera ser objectivo estratégico primordial a prevenção de uma aliança russo-alemão. Esse bloco é o único que foi como uma potência mundial alternativa capaz de americanos para fazer a sua posição dominante em disputa.

Isto vindo de uma instituição que aconselha 175 países no mundo inteiro:

https://www.stratfor.com/about

Ou por outras palavras, os EUA não querem paz na Europa. Porque isto apenas e só se traduziria no isolamento dos EUA e consequente decadência da OTAN. Claro que, e tendo em conta inúmeras intervenções por mim publicadas, isso é a última coisa que pode e irá acontecer.
 
Começo a segunda parte do meu resumo com, certamente, a piada do dia. O FMI prevê que a economia da Ucrânia cresça 2% em 2016. Em 2015 a contração esperada da economia será algo como 5,5%:

Ukraine's real GDP is expected to contract by about 5.5% in 2015 with inflation spike to about 27% temporarily in response to the exchange rate depreciation and gas and heating tariff increases, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.

"Ukraine’s economic prospects will improve in the medium-term. Real GDP growth is expected to rebound to 2% in 2016 and rise to 4% in the medium term," reads a press release of the IMF issued late on Thursday after the approval of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) by the IMF Executive Board for Ukraine.

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/economic/254591.html

A Ucrânia será a Fénix da Europa. Vai renascer das cinzas exatamente no último ano em que vai usufruir das receitas da passagem do gás.

Em Israel, o atual PM promete, se eleito, continuar a pôr os palestinianos em guetos. É para construir o paraíso zionista diz ele:



Fica-se à espera da invasão da OTAN para depôr semelhante tirano. É assim tão difícil perceber que os guetos estão a alimentar o terrorismo?

E voltando à Síria:

The Syrian government's attack on a bastion of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) group in 2014 has killed 100 civilians and carries "every indication of being war crimes", Amnesty International, the London-based human-rights organisation, says.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/...-war-crimes-rights-group-150317142539249.html

Ufa, felizmente os ataques ocidentais não matam civis nem usufruem da mesma condenação histérica e imediata:

The Pentagon is investigating reports that civilians might have been killed during two air strikes last year in Iraq and Syria.
A spokesman for the U.S. Central Command, Colonel Patrick Ryder, said on January 6 that the U.S. military investigated 18 allegations of civilian casualties during U.S.-led coalition bombings in Syria and Iraq between August 8 and December 30.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said in October that 32 civilians were killed after the first month of coalition strikes in Syria as well as 467 fighters from the Islamic State militant group.

http://www.rferl.org/content/iraq-syria-air-strikes-civilian-casualties/26780561.html

O Kerry é o Rui Machete americano (já vem desde as armas químicas):



Mas enfim, os EUA não interferem na política interna de outros países:



Se ela diz eu acredito. Não iam mentir pois não?

Por fim, esperem mais guerras e rumores de guerras. Não só isso é comum durante e, especialmente, após problemas económicos, como os EUA continuam firmemente a ficar isolados no palco internacional:

The Obama administration warned on Tuesday that rising powers were challenging U.S. leadership in global financial institutions, and urged Congress to approve a deal it says would help preserve U.S. influence.

"New players are challenging U.S. leadership in the multilateral system," Treasury Secretary Jack Lew told U.S. lawmakers.

http://www.businessinsider.com/r-us...-in-global-financial-institutions--lew-2015-3



Isto é um assunto a que volto recorrentemente. A 'besta' não vai morrer. Apenas vai mudar de configuração:

The future of the United States lies in North America. This is not a geographic truism, but a strategic imperative. Generations of Americans, distracted by far-flung crises, have long taken our own region for granted. This must change if the 21st century is to be an American century. The United States, Canada and Mexico are bound by a shared economic, environmental, demographic and cultural destiny. How we move forward together is key to our success.

http://edition.cnn.com/2015/01/26/opinion/martinez-kurtz-phelan-north-american-passport/

Entramos na era dos superblocos económicos e políticos. A UE não pode falhar. Porque é o próximo passo da América do Norte. Da mesma maneira que só quando a UE estiver na beira do precipício é que a total integração acontecerá. Mas cada coisa a seu tempo.
 
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