Política e economia internacional 2015

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Funcionamento dos mercados:

 

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Dia repleto de notícias. Primeiro, a Rússia:

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a pact with a Moscow-backed breakaway region of Georgia, despite condemnation by Tbilisi and the West.
Putin and the de facto leader of South Ossetia, Leonid Tibilov, signed the "alliance and integration treaty" in the Kremlin on March 18.

Part of the treaty gives Russia responsibility for ensuring the defense and security of South Ossetia, including guarding its borders.

Security and mliitary forces currently tasked with defending the region are to be incorporated into Russia's armed forces or Russia security bodies.

Shortly after the signing, Georgia's Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying the pact amounted to the "actual annexation of the occupied Tskhinvali region" by Russia. Tskhinvali is the regional capital.

http://www.rferl.org/content/georgia-russia-south-ossetia/26907700.html

Mais quatro anos de guerra contra o Irão:



Instabilidade na Grécia:



Resistência contra os transgénicos no Uganda:



O BIS (o banco central dos bancos centrais) critica a política dos bancos centrais:

Low inflation, bond yields and interest rates around the world will push the boundaries of economic and political stability to breaking point if they continue on their downward trajectory, the Bank for International Settlements has warned.

The Swiss-based "bank of central banks" said the "sinking trend" of global rates would push countries further into uncharted territory.

It highlighted that $2.4 trillion (£1.6 trillion) of long-term global sovereign debt was now trading at negative yields, with an increasing number of investors willing to pay governments for the privilege of lending to them.

The BIS warned that the low rate environment, which has already led to gaping pension deficits and lower bank profits, could risk a backlash from ordinary people whose savings were being eroded away.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...unrest-as-central-banks-lose-control-BIS.html

Isso é irónico. Vendo os diretores da instituição:

The BIS Board of Directors 1
Chairman: Christian Noyer, Paris

Mark Carney, London
Agustín Carstens, Mexico City
Jon Cunliffe, London
Andreas Dombret, Frankfurt am Main
Mario Draghi, Frankfurt am Main
William C Dudley, New York
Stefan Ingves, Stockholm
Thomas Jordan, Zurich
Klaas Knot, Amsterdam
Haruhiko Kuroda, Tokyo
Anne Le Lorier, Paris
Fabio Panetta, Rome
Stephen S Poloz, Ottawa
Raghuram Rajan, Mumbai
Jan Smets, Brussels
Alexandre A Tombini, Brasília
Ignazio Visco, Rome
Jens Weidmann, Frankfurt am Main
Janet L Yellen, Washington
Zhou Xiaochuan, Beijing

http://www.bis.org/about/board.htm?m=1|2|2

Mas vendo as declarações:

Draghi mais otimista: “Riscos negativos para a economia diminuíram”

http://observador.pt/2015/03/05/bce-mantem-taxa-de-juro-inalterada-no-minimo-historico-de-005/

E ainda no mesmo tópico:

A world of record low inflation and interest rates poses a risk to the world's financial stability warned the Organisation for Economic Coordination and Development, who have urged against complacency among the world's policymakers.

More than 20 central banks have already moved to cut interest rates this year as weak inflation outlooks have provided many economies with the room to ease monetary policy.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ten-global-financial-stability-warn-OECD.html

There's a corner of the pension world that needs to brace itself for Mario Draghi.

His European Central Bank's 1.1 trillion euro ($1.2 trillion) bond-buying plan might have already blown a 92 billion-euro hole in defined-benefit pension plans by depressing bond yields, Standard & Poor's said Feb. 26. And if the actual start of QE pushes yields further, for longer, companies may have to take drastic measures to make ends meet, and could face a hit to their credit ratings.

S&P estimates that the anticipation of quantitative easing in Europe squashed bond yields so much that the liabilities of defined-benefit pension plans rose by up to 18 percent last year. Its analysis looked at the top 50 European companies it rates that have defined-benefit pension plans and are "materially underfunded," meaning, the plans have deficits of more than 10 percent of adjusted debt, and that debt is more than 1 billion euros. In 2013, liabilities outstripped obligations for that group by more than 30 percent on average.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...rescue-plan-has-created-a-103-billion-problem

 

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O assassinato do dissidente russo pode ter a ver com lutas internas de poder:

http://www.businessinsider.com/putin-is-facing-an-impossible-choice-2015-3

 

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O banco central norte-americano ainda não decidiu quando subirá as taxas de juro, apesar de ter deixado de dizer que mostra “paciência” antes de tomar essa decisão, declarou nesta quarta-feira a presidente da Reserva Federal (Fed), Janet Yellen. “A modificação da nossa mensagem de orientação não deve ser interpretada como sendo factual que decidimos o calendário de subida”, afirmou Yellen, numa conferência de imprensa em Washington.

Hoje, a Fed manteve a sua taxa diretora inalterada e indicou que considera “improvável” um aumento na reunião de abril. “O simples facto de termos retirado a palavra “paciência” do comunicado não significa que vamos ser impacientes”, disse Yellen, sem excluir um aumento dos juros nas próximas reuniões. “Não podemos dar certezas porque a evolução da economia é incerta”, acrescentou.

http://observador.pt/2015/03/18/res...o-decidiu-quando-sobe-juros-diz-janet-yellen/

 

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Russia’s Gazprom and Turkish pipeline company Botas have agreed a 10.25 percent discount on Russian gas supplied to Turkey, said Turkish Minister of Energy and Natural Resources Taner Yildiz.

http://rt.com/business/241949-russia-turkey-gas-discount/

Journalists and some Australian politicians say legislation making it harder for security agencies to store phone and internet records doesn’t go far enough. The government cites security concerns, but opponents say it’s “an attack on press freedom.”

The Australian government says this is necessary for security purposes and to help fight terrorism. If the legislation is passed as expected, it will force phone and internet companies to store records, such as IP and email addresses and telephone numbers for a period of two years.

http://rt.com/news/242181-australia-surveillance-government-law/







Atualização:

O autoproclamado Estado Islâmico reivindicou esta quinta-feira a autoria do atentado de ontem no Museu do Bardo, em Tunes, capital da Tunísia.

A informação está a ser avançada por cadeias internacionais como a BBC e a AFP.

O ataque vitimou mortalmente 23 pessoas – 20 destas turistas de nacionalidade estrangeira – e ocorreu a poucos metros do Parlamento, numa das zonas teoricamente mais bem guardadas da capital tunisina.

As autoridades do país que foi epicentro da Primavera Árabe em 2011 já tinham nomeado Yassine Laabidi e Hatem Khachnaoui como dois dos atiradores envolvidos no atentado.

O ataque é duro golpe na indústria turística tunisina, uma das principais fontes de receita do país.

http://www.ionline.pt/artigos/mundo/estado-islamico-reivindica-matanca-turistas-na-tunisia

 

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Mini-documentário sobre as tensões étnicas na Macedonia:

 

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U.S. Army soldiers with the 2nd Cavalry Regiment will soon begin a 1,100-mile convoy through six countries en route to their home station in Vilseck, Germany as they wrap up months of training with allies in Poland and the Baltics, Army officials said.

The journey will take soldiers with the 3rd Squadron, 2nd Cavalry Regiment, from separate training locations in Estonia, Lithuania and Poland and convoy them through Latvia, the Czech Republic and finally to their home base at Rose Barracks in Vilseck, Germany, according to USAREUR.

Along the way, the troops will be camping out during a series of planned stops where they will meet with local community members.

http://www.stripes.com/news/dragoon...gh-eastern-europe-in-show-of-support-1.334021

Lá estamos 'nós' a ser coniventes com maus hábitos soviéticos:



Mas junho será um mês muito interessante. Saber-se-á se, ou como, a Turquia irá contribuir para a força de resposta rápida da OTAN:

Turkey’s role in the recently reinforced NATO response forces would become clear by June, said the country’s defense minister, after the alliance agreed to beef up security measures amid challenges from Russia and Islamic extremists.

“Turkey’s contribution will be clear by June,” Turkish Defense Minister İsmet Yılmaz told state-run Anadolu Agency on Feb. 6, speaking after the meeting.

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/tu...ister.aspx?pageID=238&nID=77981&NewsCatID=338

Com o investimento russo no gás, penso que qualquer participação será muito duvidosa. E se acontecer será apenas um compromisso mínimo.

 

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One of the Israeli government’s secrets to manipulating the American media has been revealed for the first time by new research.

Israel habitually launches its most unpopular and, sometimes, deadly attacks against Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza to coincide with big news events here in the U.S., so that they don’t get too much public attention, according to the study.

The news management is so sophisticated that the Israeli government is especially good about avoiding damaging “follow-up” or “day two” stories about its attacks — stories most likely to include awkward human interest details about the casualties and their families.

So finds a study conducted by Ruben Durante, professor at Sciences Po in Paris, and Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, professor at the Paris School of Economics Read the study: Attack When the World is Not Watching? International Media and the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.

The findings aren’t just useful for those following the news from the Middle East, but are fascinating for students of marketing, manipulation and propaganda everywhere — from politics to business.

The researchers looked at Israel’s military interventions in Palestine over an 11-year period, from 2000 to 2011, and then compared them to what was going on in the news at the time. That included looking at whether there was big other news, and whether that other news was scheduled — such as, say, the Super Bowl — or unscheduled, such as an earthquake or tsunami or plane crash somewhere in the world.

“We find that Israeli attacks are more likely to occur prior to days with very high news pressure driven by clearly predictable events,” they found. There were statistically significant upticks in Israeli military action in the West Bank and Gaza Strip before big holidays or sporting events, but not before things that the Israeli military could not anticipate.

Too cynical? Maybe — or, maybe not. Bibi Netanyahu, who was just re-elected as Israeli prime minister after a stunning last-minute rally, boasted as long ago as 2001 about Israel’s ability to play American public opinion.

“I know what America is,” Netanyahu boasted during a meeting that was caught on camera. “America is a thing you can move very easily, move it in the right direction.” You don’t, he told his listeners, have to worry about Americans forming their own opinions about the conflict in the Middle East.

Netanyahu is so good at this that he is able to come to the U.S. to chastise the sitting president, even while billing the U.S. taxpayers $3 billion a year for military aid.

In the days following 9/11 of 2001, when the rest of the world was transfixed by the terrorist attacks in New York and Washington, the Israeli government under Ariel Sharon seized the chance to send tanks into the West Bank, and attack helicopters into Gaza.

The government of Israel didn’t invent this technique. Most marketing techniques are as old as the hills. Back in 1994 Silvio Berlusconi took advantage of Italy going through to the final of the soccer World Cup to push through an unpopular decree that was designed to save corrupt politicians from jail. In 2008 Russia timed its invasion of Georgia to coincide with the opening of the Olympic Games in Beijing.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/se...rael-manipulates-us-public-opinion-2015-03-20

 

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Vladimir Putin proposed on Friday creating a regional currency union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, Russia's partners in a political and economic union made up of former Soviet republics.

Mr Putin made his proposal at a meeting with the Belarussian and Kazakh presidents which highlighted the challenges facing the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union following the fall in global oil prices and the decline of the Russian rouble.

"The time has come to start thinking about forming a currency union," Mr Putin said after the talks in the Kazakh capital Astana with Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko and Kazakh President Nursultan Nazarbayev.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...r-Putin-calls-for-Eurasia-currency-union.html

Ukraine's economy shrank at an alarming 14.8pc over the last three months of the year, as conflict with neighbouring giant Russia and simmering civil war have devastated the country.

The economy contracted by 6.8pc in 2014, according to the country's statistical authority, but the slump could worsen to as much as 12pc in 2015 according to government forecasts.

A collapsing currency, dwindling central bank reserves and eye-watering inflation near 30pc have led to Kiev requesting a $17.5bn bail-out from the International Monetary Fund.

But Ukraine's finance minister has warned the assistance is not likely to be sufficient in "restarting and promoting growth."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...ecimates-Ukraine-as-economy-shrinks-15pc.html

A hard-hitting EU report on Jerusalem warns that the city has reached a dangerous boiling point of “polarisation and violence” not seen since the end of the second intifada in 2005.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...-point-of-polarisation-and-violence-eu-report

Quando nos EUA é mais provável o presidente ser expulso do cargo do que deixar de apoiar simbioticamente Israel (em detrimento dos eleitores), a política está podre:



E a treta da paz e a solução de dois estados volta:

 

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Greece’s unbalanced austerity and drastic increase of poverty. The poorest households in the debt-ridden country lost nearly 86% of their income, while the richest lost only 17-20%. The tax burden on the poor increased by 337% while the burden on upper-income classes increased by only 9%!!! This is the result of a study that has analyzed 260.000 tax and income data from the years 2008 – 2012.

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/20...s-poor-lost-86-of-income-but-rich-only-17-20/

 

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Santander and Deutsche Bank have failed a US "stress test" designed to assess whether lenders can withstand another financial crisis.

The review, carried out by the Federal Reserve, gauges whether the biggest banks operating in the US have the "ability to lend to households and businesses even in times of stress".

Another institution, Bank of America, has been asked to revise its financial plans due to "certain weaknesses".

A further 28 banks passed the tests.

Officially known as the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review, the tests were implemented in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis, in which some lenders needed bailouts from the US central bank.

In a statement reacting to the Fed's announcement, Germany's Deutsche Bank said it had hired 1,800 employees "dedicated to ensuring that its systems and controls are best in class".

Santander's US chief executive, Scott Powell, said the bank, which failed some of the Fed's tests for the second year in a row, still had "meaningful work to do to meet our regulator's expectations and our own standards of excellence".

However, the Spanish bank added that it had not been prevented from paying dividends.

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-31843429

A banca alemã e espanhola está super segura :assobio:

Adição:

The Federal Reserve rejected the capital plans of the US operations of Spanish bank Santander and Germany's Deutsche Bank, saying it saw serious problems in the planning processes of both.

Explaining the rejections of Santander Holdings USA and Deutsche Bank Trust Corp, the Fed cited "widespread and substantial weaknesses across their capital planning processes".

It saw problems in governance, internal controls, risk assessment and other issues in both.

Both are significant, though not dominant, arms of their parents. Santander Holdings USA is a business with $150bn in assets and counts as 10pc of the parent's global business, according to the Fed.

With about $54bn in assets, Deutsche Bank Trust counts as 12pc to 14pc of Deutsche Bank's US business, a Fed official said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...antander-and-Deutsche-Bank-capital-plans.html

Adição 2:

Four of the largest US banks just scraped through the annual Federal Reserve financial checkup, underscoring the central bank’s ongoing doubts about Wall Street’s resilience more than six years after the financial crisis.

http://www.theguardian.com/business...s-scrape-through-federal-reserve-stress-tests

Ufa, felizmente os depositantes estão dispostos a pagar o falhanço dos bancos...

 

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Finland came a step closer to losing its top credit grade at Fitch Ratings as divisions within the government led to a failure to stem the growth of public debt.

The outlook on the northernmost euro member’s long-term AAA rating was reduced to negative from stable, the rating company said in a statement Friday. While the statement affirmed the top rating, slow economic growth and mounting debt could lead to a cut, Fitch said.

Finland’s government has allowed public debt to double since 2008 as economic growth proved elusive. It’s also missed all its key economic goals over the past four years and this month oversaw the collapse of a key health-care overhaul.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-top-fitch-rating-amid-stagnation-rising-debt

Francehas become Europe’s “big problem”, according to the former prime minister of Italy, who warned that anti-Brussels sentiment and the rise of populism in the Gallic nation threatened to blow the bloc’s Franco-German axis apart.

Mario Monti – who was dubbed “Super Mario” for saving the country from collapse at the height of the eurozone debt crisis – said France’s “unease” with the single currency had already created tensions between Europe’s two largest economies.

France will vote in local elections on Sunday. A recent poll conducted by Le Figaro newspaper put Ms Le Pen's party out in the lead, with 30pc of the vote.

In a warning to France, Mr Monti said: “Maybe you forgot, but we all remember that France was the country that wanted the euro, not Germany.

"Germany reluctantly accepted the euro to get approval of the other countries for its reunification process. It would have much rather kept to the Deutsche Mark. It was France who insisted to have the single currency and now it’s so uneasy with it."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...is-Europes-big-problem-warns-Mario-Monti.html

For Norval Loftus, chief investment officer at Allegra Asset Management, trading corporate bonds is not as easy as it used to be.

“It’s like night and day compared with six or seven years ago,” the bond market veteran says. “There’s no comparison. It’s even tougher than it was six or seven months ago. It’s getting more and more difficult all the time.”

He is not alone. Investors across corporate bond markets are finding it harder to buy and sell company debt. And some investors are beginning to fear that the lack of liquidity will be the spark that ignites the next crisis in financial markets.

Liquidity is generally taken to mean the ease with which an investor can quickly buy or sell a security without moving its price. As regulation of banks tightens, the liquidity, particularly of European and US credit markets, has evaporated, prompting a host of regulators and central banks to sound warnings about the difficult trading environment.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...sis-could-spark-the-next-financial-crash.html