The track and intensity forecast are extremely dependent on one another in the current forecast scenario, with Lane expected to move generally toward the north while it remains a hurricane, and generally toward the west once it weakens. Confidence in the forecast is reduced because it is uncertain how Lane's core will be impacted by its potential interaction with island terrain, and the subsequent rate of weakening. Regardless of whether Lane's center moves over one of the Hawaiian Islands, an increasing amount of southwesterly shear along the forecast track will lead to significant weakening. If Lane's core were to move over one of the islands as has been consistently depicted by GFS/HWRF, then the cyclone would weaken even more rapidly. EMX2 is on the left side of the guidance and indicates less interaction with island terrain, and therefore a slightly slower rate of weakening.
Based on a preponderance of evidence presented by the guidance, the updated forecast indicates a faster rate of weakening than indicated earlier, especially on days 2 and 3. The expectation is that Lane will weaken due to the combined and cumulative effects of debilitating shear and the interruption of the circulation due to proximity to the high mountains of Maui and the Big Island. The official intensity forecast now closely follows IVCN, SHIPS and the ECMWF-based SHIPS. The track forecast anticipates this weakening, with Lane turning sharply toward the west on day 3. Until then, the forecast track is shifted slightly to the right of the previous forecast through Friday, bringing Lane northward and very close to the Big Island and Maui County. This is similar to the multi-model consensus HCCA, which includes GFS and HWRF as weighted members. A slow forward speed is expected as this occurs, with Lane then moving more quickly toward west as it becomes shallow and carried by the low-level trade wind flow.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=51002&uom=M&tz=STN
