Seguimento Europa 2009

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stormy

Super Célula
Registo
7 Ago 2008
Mensagens
5,117
Local
Lisboa

Chasing Thunder

Cumulonimbus
Registo
13 Mai 2008
Mensagens
4,285
Local
Couço
Aviso do estofex para hoje dia 14 de janeiro de 2009



SYNOPSIS

Both low pressure systems over the Europe, one over Norway and another over the Central Mediterranean are expected to lose significance and slowly fill during the forecast period. Moreover, a high will settle over the Scandinavia and a further advection of arctic airmass into Central Europe is predicted in the following few days. Meanwhile, a modified stable airmass takes up most of Europe. A mid level cut off low, placed over Italy, which has advected warmer and moister airmass in strong SW flow will also fill. This feature as well as the accompanying surface low have been a loci for thunderstorm activity during the last forecast period. The activity is therefore expected to quickly subside.

DISCUSSION

... Eastern Ionian sea, Greece...

An advection of warm and humid airmass is expected on the forward side of the weaking low. A tongue of instability will have formed by 06Z from the Ionian to the Adriatic Sea, although, as simulated by GFS, instability should be mostly marginal. MLCAPEs might exceed 800 J/kg only in the southern parts. Quite strong synoptic-scale lift combined with the strong low level flow convergence especially over the coastal areas will aid in the thunderstorm initiation. Thunderstorms should be also ongoing from the previous period and the latest satellite loop shows a linear convective system over Italy and Ionian Sea, moving eastwards. Strong flow induced by the low will result in 15 - 20 m/s of wind shear in the lowest 3 km ( for example, 850 hPa flow should reach 20 m/s especially over the coastal areas). At the same time, veering winds with height will increase the SREH values to more than 250 J/kg in 0-3 km layer. Such favourable conditions will rapidly diminish after 09Z.


The greatest threat is expected in the morning hours, between 06Z and 09Z, when the convective line is expected to reach the area. Favourable wind profiles and low LCLs suggest tornado/waterespout potential will exist, especially in the coastal areas with the best instability / low level shear overlap. Marginal severe wind gust risk should also develop, as suggested by 15 - 20 m/s wind shear component to low level boundary. Hail can also occur although its size is not expected to meet the severe weather criteria.
 

Dan

Staff
Registo
26 Ago 2005
Mensagens
9,746
Local
Bragança (675m)
Semana bem fresca em quase toda a Europa.




NOAA
 

nimboestrato

Nimbostratus
Registo
8 Jan 2008
Mensagens
1,865
Local
Pedras Rubras-Aeroporto
E depois de tanta frescura gélida o noroeste europeu prepara-se para tempo tempestuoso.

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Hoje , se fosse homem de posses era para a Escócia ou para a Irlanda que viajava na próxima semana.
Vários dias de vigorosa depressão que se vai instalar no Atlântico Norte.
Vários dias de ocasionais ventos e aguaceiros verdadeiramente tempestuosos.
Ai se eu fosse rico, dubidubidubidu bidubidubidubidu.....
 

Luis França

Nimbostratus
Registo
23 Mai 2006
Mensagens
1,467
Local
Hades
Uma curiosidade chegada de Inglaterra: um círculo de gelo no rio Otter.


10ft polar ice circle in Britain


FROZENRIVER_682_707394a.jpg

Bizarre ... perfect circle of ice formed in the River Otter

AN ice disc usually found in polar regions has been seen on a British river for the first time.
The 10ft perfect circle was spotted spinning along by two ramblers following the cold snap.
The discs form when tiny whirlpools are created under a frozen river by a reverse current.
The force of the vortex cuts through the ice and the circle breaks free.
But they are so rare, they have no scientific or meteorological name.
 

nimboestrato

Nimbostratus
Registo
8 Jan 2008
Mensagens
1,865
Local
Pedras Rubras-Aeroporto
E a 1ª ciclogenesis deste ciclo de várias que estarão na forja para os próximos dias no Atlântico Norte surgiu já hoje a noroeste da Irlanda:


ciclog2qr7.jpg
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Segundo este modelo de previsão ainda irá cavar até 938 hPa mas ao deslocar-se para Nor-nordeste poupará em princípio a Escócia de grandes estragos:

cicloglk7.png
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Esta será a 1ª de muitas que poderão eventualmente formar-se ao longo dos próximos dias e inclusivé a latitudes inferiores .
Veremos.
 

nimboestrato

Nimbostratus
Registo
8 Jan 2008
Mensagens
1,865
Local
Pedras Rubras-Aeroporto
E como o que é perfeito quase sempre é belo, logo ,deve ser visto ,
eis a beleza a raspar o noroeste da Escócia:

meteosat81800eur1st8.jpg
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Enquanto quase toda a Europa experimenta agora algumas tréguas do General,o noroeste das Ilhas Britânicas é tocado por tempo tempestuoso.
Por enquanto.
Em breve, mais regiões do Noroeste/Oeste Europeu farão companhia à entretanto desamparada Escócia.
 

Chasing Thunder

Cumulonimbus
Registo
13 Mai 2008
Mensagens
4,285
Local
Couço
Aviso do estofex para hoje dia 18 de Janeiro de 2009:




SYNOPSIS

A strong zonal upper flow pattern has established over the North Atlantic with an impressive 100 m/s westerly jet streak southwest of the British Isles. In the vicinity of the jet's left exit region over the North Sea, an intense 940hPa surface low will shift northeastward while occluding. The next intense cyclone will develop further upstream on sunday afternoon / evening. Its cold front will cross western UK and northwestern France during the night hours and rather shallow but organized convection may develop along the cold front.

High over low blocking will persist for some more days over Russia and an upper level cut-off low over the N Maghreb States moves southward during the period. Over the Mediterranean area, stable conditions will continue.

DISCUSSION

...Ireland, W UK, NW France...

On Sunday morning, showers and thunderstorms are expected in the unstable post-frontal airmass over the British Isles where low-level winds in order of 20 - 25 m/s will be in place. Weak directional shear should minimize the tornado threat but isolated severe gusts may occur. In the afternoon, the approaching warm front of the next cyclone and upper WAA will lead to stable conditions. This will change again around 00 UTC on Monday when the upper vort-max of the next shortwave trough arrives. In an environment with marginal CAPE but very strong (35 m/s) LL shear and locally more than 600 J/kg SRH1 / 1000 J/kg SRH3, shallow convective lines may develop, capable of producing severe convectively-enhanced gusts, in some places even more than 32 m/s, and maybe a few tornadoes. Uncertainties with respect to instability and forcing exist and an update may follow in the evening.

...Other regions...

Showers and thunderstorms with sporadic lightning and gusty winds may also develop over the North Sea, N France, Belgium, the Netherlands and NW Germany. Another area with possible thunderstorms is southern Norway.

Imagem de satélite actual:

http://www.sat24.com/
 

nimboestrato

Nimbostratus
Registo
8 Jan 2008
Mensagens
1,865
Local
Pedras Rubras-Aeroporto
E na Europa vai chovendo a Oeste (bastante) e Leste (pouco).
Também no sul de Itália e Balcãs.
A precipitação acumulada das 18 UTC de ontem às 06 de hoje

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De salientar ainda as precipitações volumosas no nordeste da Argélia e Tunísia por acção ainda do nosso conhecido Bóris.
 
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