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Tópico em 'Europa' iniciado por Mesogiakos 3 Dez 2012 às 10:29.
Thanks for the data.
I dont buy this conclusion one bit tbh.I highly doubt that Portugal will get an area of over 37.Give us the link of the study to see exactly how they arrived at this estimation
Have to agree here. We need to be critical here. I remember quite well that the charts said: "average temperature of the warmest month". So, how do we interpretate this. The warmest month in one year can be either july or agust. So if you simply use july one year, agust the next etc yes the average will be higher.
Also, I think it is just an interpolation and there is an Iberian climate atlas showing something very similar with a hotspot near Coria in Extremadura. In reality, the stations close to that area are not nearly getting that warm. even when we personally take into account the hight and say add 2-3 C for height differences we get nowhere near.
It is okey to mention these values I think, but they give us ZERO proof. I have another study in a book of which is quite extensive considering the Portuguese climate and it comes to 35-37 C in the Douro area in vary localised places. And 35+ in the vallye of the Guadian and 34+ in the Tejo valley near Vila Velha de Rodão. alas, all again not based on station because there are no stations with the exception probably with the Guadiana river where Moura indeed got very near those values in a cooler period of the last century. I believe the average over the 31-60 period was 34,8 there.
Well, this of course also gives us space to argue! And that is what we like to do it seems ;-) So with all this data I think the current 1981-2010 averages in the warmest places in Portugal, which could be somewhere in the Guadiana basin 50 km away from the coast or more will get us somewhere near 36 C. It is highly unliekly Moura is the warmest place. So i think 35 -35,5 indeed is plausible value for the 1931-1960 period. If we translate this to the current 30 year average this would lead us to 36,0 to 36,5 C.
Who knows, one day someone will help me setup a station there with calibrated instruments. Only a good sensorscreen (or two, if one fails) and a calibrated datalogger (or two...) is needed....
I would rely more on IM references and estimates (the ones that were discussed above) than on someone else opinion, to locate the places with higher probability of being some of the warmest (then to pick up the data from there).
«Only a good sensorscreen (or two, if one fails) and a calibrated datalogger (or two...) is needed....»
For each target place, I do agree.
I do nothave IM in high regard
Sorry, but if you look at those maps the simple distribution of the temperatures looked ridiculous to me. If you look at many many maps with isotherms, you soon notice when something is artificial or plainly wrong. And that is my thought on this interpolation excercise.
Moreover, if I look a the site of the IM. The way weatherstations are placed and maintained it does not look too professional to me. Now this is circumstantial "evidence" on the IM as a whole. The guys and girls that have studied this might be very good. But I think there are quite a few people on fora that know more than some professionalists, that is for sure. This is not Portugal specific.....Some pro's seem to never get out of the room and just look at the weather from a computerscreen or even rely on models more than reality. Suppose you study hotspots in a model, how about setting up some stations for a short period (a couple of months) to at least get some confirmation??
As you may have noticed, in NL it can snow often and a lot. Snow is difficult to forecast and showers even more difficult. Last Saturday, looking at the various radars it became clear heavy snowshowers would enter the coastal area. KNMI insisted, based on three models for region (like HIRLAM) that the showers would enter the coast 150 km north of me. Had they looked at the current situation and the way the showers were moving, they could have known easily it was not going to be 150 km up north. They insisted and even did not give a warning for heavy snow as it was snowing heavily in the central and northern part of my province. I went on the roads and you could not see more than 200 m.
I as in close contact with one of them and even in the moment he said "they should move up north again any time now"?? Not a single indicator, be it radar or satpictures showed any change wherever I looked. IThe showers did not move up orth nor west they just continued SE wards. Now...first they would change their course to east and than to north. The switch should have taken some time. It is looking at models especially that leads to these failures.
I think this is a problem in general with many meteorologists and climatologists: they have great faith in (numerical) models. In part rightfully so, but a critical look at the outcome seems to be missing at times.
Well, that study is useful, mainly to locate the places with the higher chances of being the warmest during the summer.
What´s your opinion about this?
My opinion is that the study was not that usefull. We all know in a very simple way where we can find hotspots: inland, low lying and as much sheltered from the see as possibly. The more south you move, the higher more solar energy per square meter you get. We all know why the Guadalquivir region gets so hot and you can expect the same everywhere else.
Which takes us back to the disucssion: most Greek stations lack one of the parameters: they are all close to the sea or much closer to the sea, which explains at least my reservations. Or they are a t muchhigher altitudes.
The explanation that some sort of føhn is always blowing etc: I don't buy that. So you have crete a rather narrow Island but somehow the sea DOES influence the high annual temperature (which is perfectly explicable) but somehow th same see does not affect the daytime max in that locality. I don't buy it at all.
I was the one BTW who pointed Meso to Sparta, which he dismissed when his focus was solely on the Athinai region. When he saw things in a broader context, Sparta became viable. But even for Sparta, the proximity to the coast will have its influence more so than the interior of Iberia. If we take a look at Aydin in Turkey, which is 80 km inland and at 7 m height we see a very similar climate to Sevilla or Cordoba. Sparta, at 210 m AND at about 20-30 km form the sea simply is not in the same position to get this kind of figures over a 30 year period. But in some years, with dominant and different weatherpatterns as we all know, this can happen.
The best place for heat allround in summer (daytime heath) in greece is in the inlandplain of Thessaly. This should compare really well to inland Portugal and teh Guadalquivir regions. although the files I saw for Lamia pointed to
+35 C. Not quite the 37 C we find at Cordoba or Andujar, Montoro etc.
This study was mainly directed to find which are the places of with biggest probabilities (known at the time) to be the warmest, regarding the average of daily maxima, during these 3 months: June, July and August for the period of 1960-1990.
The temperatures are estimations. Close estimations according to the authors.
And what was told to me is that they did used «abrigos meteorológicos» data as well, to make the calculations, which is not the same as the IM weather stations that we know.
I already did gave a look (Google Earth) some years ago, on some of the places and regions that are said to be the warmest in the summer and others that have an interesting potential:
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Vale do Tejo e Beira Baixa
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Aspecto da zona de Cerejais.
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Região do Douro.
Vale do Côa
Now my opinion:
Well, I think that this study, very probably did located some of the warmest areas.
This subject was already discussed «ad nauseam» on this topic «Local mais quente de Portugal ? 50°C é possível ? »
It´s possible to get more informations about this article by contacting the IM, but you´ll have to pay for it.
My sincere opinion, is that this study is very interesting and that could lead to even more accurate investigations.
To measure data on some of the hotspots, could be also really interesting.
Well you should buy the foehn when Crete is involved.Sorry but you have no idea of what Crete is capable of doing due to it's topography.If you had monitor Crete better you would know.It is simply amazing and very difficult indeed to understand.But all the stations around South Crete both from NOA and HNMS shows us that in the summer it rocks with foehn winds while North Crete gets it the winter .Also if you spend more time on Crete you would see that the summer mean maxes is extremely elevated in South Crete for areas in the coast due to the foehn.On the other hand in the North part of Crete you can see the maxes in the winter are affected in the areas susceptible to foehn winds when these blow.Check Falasarna station for example in the winter.I am telling you Crete does not need anyone to show it's power and how complicated it is.Come back to me and talk to me about Crete in 20 years time (minimum time at face value for Crete) then I might listen to you especially when Crete is involved.I monitor it 15 years and still learn new stuff.Plus do you even read the topic?I ve said time and time again that the summer mean maxes in the Messara valley around Sivas and Moires are off the charts and also this is year round for mean maxes ,they compare with Spartan summers easily due to the effect from foehn both from south and north blockage of the mountains.Crete is far too amazing geomorphologically to fit the logic of random observers.We have a Cretan guy over in the UK forum and if you check my conversations with him you will understand how complicated Crete is.
As for Sparta it is not ''20 km'' from the sea.I give the exact distance in earlier posts.At that time I only had data from Sparta only for two years,now however I have the long terms stats for Sparta plus we see very well from the NOA station the constant foehn winds it gets from Parnonas and Taygetus mountains in the summer coupled with it's distance from the sea.It is among the most inland cities in Greece from the sea.Only Serres in Greece is more inland than Sparta.But Serres is too north (even though Serres is one tough bitch in summer mean maxes as well).Sparta is by far and without a doubt the strongest in all of Greece in summer mean maxes.
Secondly Lamia is not in Thessaly (lol) but in Sterea Ellada and it is only 10-13km from the sea.It's mean maxes for the long term data from HNMS are more than one 1C lower than inland Athens due to the fact that inland Athens is more to the south.For example the notorious Nea Filadelfeia in Athens is at about 14-15km away from the sea and beats the crap out of Lamia in long term statistics.As for Thessaly it must be like your Douro area.Some good potential but too north again and the warmest systematically you will find is around Larisa due to the increase of the altitude as you go inside the Thessaly valley.However even downtown Athens beats Larisa in the summer mean maxes.Here is how downtown Athens and Larisa compare the last 30 years in summer mean maxes from the official WMO stevenson stations (not to mention the huge differences between the Nea Filadelfia suburb and Larisa).I found this in a Greek meteo site but you get the drift.
Now take the 34.3C July mean max of downtown Athens the last 30 years and the 34.7C mean max of cental Attica basin in Nea Filadelfeia and try to get around the Sparta mean max.If Athens manages locally 34.7C the last 30 years then pretty damn sure Sparta will be off the charts.
Also here is a breakdown of the top mean maxes Greece had last July which was the warmest ever in Greece's meteorological history.It will help you better understand how Greece behaves in terms of summer mean maxes.
Greece's top stations for July 2012 mean maxes
Using the above stats in the link for the Athens Observatory I calculated the summer means of Seville from KNMI and run a comparison.Athens gives a simple summer mean of 28,03C and Seville 27,2C the past 30 summers. Athens simply beats the crap out of Seville and any area in Europe in summer means.It is easy to understand that the combination of high mean maxes and suffocating mean minimums in the summer would do the trick.The Athenians experience without a doubt the warmest summers overall in the continent and if it wasnt for the low humidity during the summer in Athens then it would be hell living in the Greek capital (well it still is now but the extremely dry Attica climate helps in the summer)
So for a quick recap.The warmest area annually in Europe would be somewhere in South Crete and with the data we currently have Palaiohora is the warmest area both from the HNMS and NOA stations in all of Europe.I doubt you will find something higher outside South Crete in Europe.If we indeed find something then it is almost certain that again this would be in South Crete.
In terms of highest mean maxes in Europe.Inland Andalusia for sure takes first spot.Viable competitors from other countries are the plains of Catania in Italy,Guadiana valley in Portugal,and Sparta valley in Greece.The strongest of them all outside IP I reckon is Sparta and I also reckon that Sparta beats any area in Portugal in summer mean maxes.
In terms of highest mean minimums during the summer in Europe by far it would be in Attica in Greece.Chiefly the port of Piraeus where in the mid summer nights you hardly get one or two nights below 25C.
The warmest area in Europe during the summer overall without a doubt would be somewhere in the Attica basin.The simple summer mean of downtown Athens for the last 30 years is above 28C.I have no doubt that areas close to Elefsina or west of Nea Filadelfeia can beat the Athens Observatory values.
Save from the highest mean maximum Greece gets all the ''heat'' credit at a European level and even has the area of Sparta to compete head on with inland Andalusia.
What I get from you and your reasoning is this:
- You focus so much on your country and its "specialities" that you forget that same things may apply elsewhere. You say the geopgraphy gives way to very complex situations. However: there is no reason to think these, similar or different but significant things may happen in other countries with large mountains. Your argument on fohn is nearly the same in discussion on this topic over here and on the Spanish Meteored. a "superrecalientado" (superreheating) I remember as an argument over there....because of some føhn.
- If I understood you correctly (you pointed me to a link, but I guess you meant the july 2012 av. max table?) you deduced things from one month? If so that it is not valid.
- Also: the average for Sevilla from 1971-2000 for july is 27,4. There is no doubt the period 1983-2012 is warmer. Probably not 0,6 C warmer but warmer it is without a doubt. I would not say a few tenths of a degree is "beating the crap" out of anything. Moreover: a heatisle effect in athens has been studied and proven and it is a bit of a miracle that Athens would not be much warmer as the warm sea would keep the nights warm.
- The warmest average daytime max for Cordoba is 39,5 C. That is 1,2 C warmer than any place anywhere in Greece. Should we say it beats the hell out of greece or similar things?
- The warmest series over an extended period ever in Europe was 17 consecutive above 40,0 C in Amareleja and Cordoba in july-august 2003. Cordoba got 42,5 C as an average over the period. I know Amareleja was a bit warmer and if I remember correctly it was 43,4 C.
- Average temperatures mean little for heat experience. It are the daytime maxima because these are simply the highest you'll experience. if you want to use hyperboles than for such an experience (hell0 the southern interior of the Iberian Peninsula seems to be the correct place to use them and Greece is a good second.
To my mind, most of the warmest areas in Europe are pretty close with Greece having the highest minima (and therefor) averages.
The hottest daytime maxima on average in summer are found in the Iberian Peninsula and if we base ourselves on factual data, it is the Guadalquivir region and nowhere else.
Well, nothing substituts real measured data on the place.
So far the lack of weather cover in several key places is the factual data that I know about.
We can only say: «by now», «AFAIK», «according to the current knowledge».
To be warmest place on daily maxima it has to be a relatively well sheltered area, inland and at low altitude, not on a open valley or a place close to the sea.
The sun energy difference by latitude, can´t explain why several places are warmer in the summer, when it are even further from the Equator.
There much more factors that only latitude.
The warmest places on Earth, during the summer, aren´t the equatorial ones.
Other things are just theories and many times biased ones. This turns many times on an endless and fruitless debate.
And if people want to talk about opinions, well go ahead, but opinions are always opinions.
I have to agree, that it may be interesting and a progress may be expected, but this can only be possible when people have an open mind.
The debate to my mind is not entirely fruitless at all. I find all the data supplied here very interesting. In general I have an interest in those peculiar places all over Europe and Greece has been on my radar for that reason too.
What I personally don't like or find unhelpfull is making it some sort of competition. Using hyperboles ("beat the crap out of" "humiliates" or similar things) when differences are small, uncertain or unsure to me clearly adds to the bias you also point to. And, there is always someone who has a bigger one, isn't it.
We have it in NL too. Some weatherbuffs in the northeast of NL call their area "The Golden Triangle". In their mind it is always colder, more snow more wintry *by far) then elsewhere. Somehow, they are proud and with that pride comes their debunking of other areas in NL. Of course, NL is small, is very flat and has a lot of maritime influence. for the lattittude we are almost the mildest place on the planet. Only western Canada and the Brittish Isles being milder...
Differences are very small between the coldest and warmest place when you do not have any mountain range...But the biggest weatherfreaks also are the ones that love to use hyperboles, exaggerations etc.
Teh fun thing is: you cannot change reality. Of course, with such small difference (about 1 C on average in winter between the coldest and warmest place) it is certainly not always one way. I have said this on that forum so many times, but no no...So when on 13 january the frostperiod started and -7 was predicted for my region, one guy said: it never gets that cold over there, so I don't believe it. So I said:: sure, you base yourself on Vlissingen KNMI but that is far from representative. I predicted my place and many others would get well below that. Indeed we went down to -11 - -12 C.
And that went on for about a week.
After a week, the tables seemed to turn and my "competer" rejoiced that now, his area would make up the difference....Unfortunately we had clear spells and a thick snowcover and the restof Nl did not. The difference became bigger and bigger. we also had lots of snow that did not reach the north or not as much...I really ahd to laugh. The guy could not have picked out a worse situation to start this "battle". When the news came that below -273,15 C was possible, the remark was made that it was probably measured in my province (haha)..
To me, it is useless to be proud of anything and all this bias takes a way a lot of credibility and I note that, if I have time, I check and double check data etc from those people. They cannot be trusted here, they want to bend reality if it would be possible and come with all sorts of reasons which show they have a lot of knowledge but only have to use it in the right way now. At least, that is how I see it...
Well, I said that these debates aren´t necessarily fruitless, given the conditions that I have posted above (IMO).
Mate dont know what you are on about.It's not rocket science.I gave you the link for the entire summer months for Athens.Use google translate if you dont understand Greek.Then I added on top of this the July 2012 to help you understand how Greece's hot spots behave in extreme circumstances since you didnt even know that Lamia was closer to the sea than inland Athens or that it was not in Thessaly.Whenever I deduce something I always do it on long terms stats and not on the example of one month.The example of one month was just for you to understand better Greece's hotspots
What I did was simply calculated the Athens means against Seville and yes Athens is overall warmer for the entire summer for 0.8C. Yep this is significant.
Plus who cares what you like or not in a ''heat experience''.This is irrelevant.I also like chocolate in my ice cream,who gives a damn?.The point being is that the Attica basin is by far the warmest area of Europe on average during the summer and this has a double significance since 40% of Greece's population lives there.
Now I assume you are talking about Crete when I stress it's complexity on the foehns.Well I stressed it bsc a)you did not even bother to read the topic where I answer all your questions before and b) bsc come on this is Crete.Just open a map and then talk to me again on how complex geomorhopology it has.
Finally spare me on how I express my self or your sensitivities on my ''hyperbole''.Go preach your children mate not me.
Again who gives a shit on what you like,think or perceive mate?I believe wholeheartedly that Athens beats the living crap out of Seville and I have shown it time and time again.
Let me make it even clearer.Seville bows to Athens and cries when it come to the question of what is the warmest area of Europe in the summer.Right?So why do u stress so much.
I also did not like that you were incapable of producing the study I asked for the Davis stations and I also dont like that you dont know and you are worthless on how to do basic research.Did I make a big deal out of it?I can however if you want to turn it into a personal critique.No problemo mate.I can also attack you personally until the end of time.Chill dude.
Your likes,dislikes and what not are irrelevant the gist is that Seville bows to Athens.Is that better now?
PS.Did I say that Athens beats the crap out of Seville?
You use a lot of words for someone who doesn't care. Athens has the highest average summertemperatures. I can agree on that, seems logical. My personal preference and that of most meteorologists is in the maximum temperatures and that is why I am asked by Dutch meteorologists on the climate and weather of the Iberian Peninsula each summer to give them those high daytime max temperatures. It is what draws most attention it seems. I am not saying this is good, correct, bad etc..it is just the way it is. Lie we all know the lowest temperature in Antarctica..but what is the average? And what was the highest ever?? Etc.