SpiderVV
Moderação
O GFS continua a dar ventos médios bem acima dos 100 km/h na Horta. O "nosso" GFS 6z dá vento médio de 119 km/h (196 km/h aos 850 hPa), mas com pouca precipitação.
0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......250NE 170SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
0900Z FRI SEP 14 2001
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 75SW 75NW.
34 KT.......280NE 160SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 110SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 300SW 400NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
E o processo de substituição do olho continua... muito melhor aspecto!
O Lorenzo está a concluir o processo de substituição do olho. Se conseguir, e tudo indica que sim, surgirá um olho bem grande...
Novo comunicado da DRA do IPMA:
provavelmente vai passar com intensidade a rondar os 75-85 nós (cat. 1 intenso/ cat. 2 fraco). 70 nós num cenário muito favorável. 90-95 num cenário horrível.
Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the end of the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 190SE 120SW 200NW.
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 160SW 160NW.