Política e economia internacional 2015

[Orion]

Deixo aqui um gráfico do Economist acerca dos assassinatos políticos ao longo dos anos por esse mundo fora:

http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicdetail/2015/02/political-assassinations

 

[Orion]

Da Síria mais um grupo rebelde junta-se aos radicais:

One of the main western-backed rebel groups announced on Sunday that it had dissolved itself and joined a larger Islamist alliance, weeks into a battle which saw it lose ground and men to more powerful al Qaeda insurgents.

Hazzm is one of the last remnants of non-jihadist opposition to President Bashar al-Assad in northern Syria, much of which has been seized by the Nusra Front and Islamic State, an offshoot of al Qaeda that controls roughly a third of Syria.

Hazzm has received what it describes as small amounts of military aid from foreign states opposed to Assad, including U.S.-made anti-tank missiles. But it has lost ground to better armed and financed jihadists.

Mais armas menos armas nas mãos de 'terroristas' já nem fazem diferença.

Em termos de teorias, há várias interessantes (hoje em dia é difícil diferenciar entre a verdade e a propaganda):

The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad has funded and co-operated with al-Qaeda in a complex double game even as the terrorists fight Damascus, according to new allegations by Western intelligence agencies, rebels and al-Qaeda defectors.

Jabhat al-Nusra, and the even more extreme Islamic State of Iraq and al-Shams (ISIS), the two al-Qaeda affiliates operating in Syria, have both been financed by selling oil and gas from wells under their control to and through the regime, intelligence sources have told The Daily Telegraph.

Intelligence gathered by Western secret services suggested the regime began collaborating actively with these groups again in the spring of 2013. When Jabhat al-Nusra seized control of Syria’s most lucrative oil fields in the eastern province of Deir al-Zour, it began funding its operations in Syria by selling crude oil, with sums raised in the millions of dollars.

“The regime is paying al-Nusra to protect oil and gas pipelines under al-Nusra’s control in the north and east of the country, and is also allowing the transport of oil to regime-held areas,” the source said. “We are also now starting to see evidence of oil and gas facilities under ISIS control.”

Telegraph

Provavelmente está a consolidar o número de inimigos. Combater 1 grupo é bem mais fácil que combater dezenas.

Mohammed Al-Saud is under no illusions. “In 2011, the majority of the current ISIS leadership was released from jail by Bashar Al Assad,” he said. “No one in the regime has ever admitted this, or explained why.” Al-Saud, a Syrian dissident with the National Coalition for Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces, left Syria under threat of arrest in 2011.

(aqui só falta inserir que o líder supremo foi solto pelos americanos - informação um bocadinho importante)

Alghorani is convinced that members of ISIS were released strategically by Assad. “From the first days of the revolution (in March 2011), Assad denounced the organisation as being the work of radical Salafists, so he released the Salafists he had created in his prisons to justify the claim ... If you do not have an enemy, you create an enemy.”

Fellow Syrians agree. “The regime did not just open the door to the prisons and let these extremists out, it facilitated them in their work, in their creation of armed brigades,” a former member of the Syrian Security Services told the Abu Dhabi newspaper, the National, on condition of anonymity in January this year.

NW

Mas, a meu ver, a mais pertinente:

Islamic State is still receiving significant financial support from Arab sympathisers outside Iraq and Syria, enabling it to expand its war effort, says a senior Kurdish official.

Fuad Hussein, the chief of staff of the Kurdish President, Massoud Barzani, told The Independent on Sunday: “There is sympathy for Da’esh [the Arabic acronym for IS, also known as Isis] in many Arab countries and this has translated into money – and that is a disaster.” He pointed out that until recently financial aid was being given more or less openly by Gulf states to the opposition in Syria – but by now most of these rebel groups have been absorbed into IS and Jabhat al-Nusra, the al-Qaeda affiliate, so it is they “who now have the money and the weapons”.

Dr Mahmoud Othman, a veteran member of the Iraqi Kurdish leadership who recently retired from the Iraqi parliament, said there was a misunderstanding as to why Gulf countries paid off IS. It is not only that donors are supporters of IS, but that the movement “gets money from the Arab countries because they are afraid of it”, he says. “Gulf countries give money to Da’esh so that it promises not to carry out operations on their territory.”

É bem provável, pelo menos agora que se está a expandir. Mantenho a minha opinião de que estão só a adiar o inevitável. As reservas energéticas assim o determinarão (mais que o fanatismo religioso).

E o Iraque caminha para um estado falhado porque...

There are two further developments to the advantage of Islamic State. Even in the face of the common threat, the leaders in Baghdad and Erbil remain deeply divided. When Mosul fell last year, the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki claimed that the Iraqi army had been stabbed in the back by a conspiracy between Kurds and Isis. The two sides remain deeply suspicious of each other and, at the start of last week, a delegation led by the Kurdish Prime Minister Nechirvan Barzani failed to reach an agreement in Baghdad on how much of Iraq’s oil revenues should go to the Kurds in exchange for a previously agreed quantity of oil from Kurdish-held northern oilfields.

“Unbelievably, the divisions now are as great as under Maliki,” says Dr Othman. Islamic State has made many enemies, but it may be saved by their inability to unite.

Independent

Por fim, o ataque, muito publicitado, a Mosul foi adiado. Para evitar mais um desastre militar.

 

[Orion]

Volta-se à mesma conclusão. Pode-se criticar tudo e todos, incluindo invadir países, pilhar e matar invocando os direitos humanos. Já quando o país em questão é Israel...

 

[Orion]

Para se saber a verdade sobre os eventos atuais, deve-se perguntar a ex-políticos/economistas. Depois do Greenspan:

The Federal Reserve won’t be able to exit from its accommodative monetary policy without some turmoil in financial markets, former U.S. central bank chairman Alan Greenspan said Wednesday on the eve of an interest-rate decision.

Inflation is “dead in the water” because effective demand is “dead in the water,” he said.

But quantitative easing has been a “terrific success” in getting the real rate of return on long-term assets down, boosting all income-earning assets.

“It hasn’t been a success in the demand side,” he said, because banks are simply parking the reserves at the central bank.

Greenspan said monetary policy is in uncharted territory. He said he was worried the “real pressure” will come when the markets demand higher rates from the Fed to keep reserve balances where they are, he said.

Agora foi o Bernanke:

Presidents should get the power to declare economic emergencies along the lines to declare war, said former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke on Monday.

While the Fed retains the authority it needs to respond to another financial crisis, financial crises ‘tend to have a certain chaotic element to them,” that no one can predict, Bernanke said during a panel discussion sponsored by The Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy.

In light of this, it might make sense to give “the president some ability to declare emergencies or take extraordinary actions and not put that all on the Fed,” Bernanke said at a conference. “The constitution gives the president significant flexibility to respond to military situations,” in part because of they are chaotic, he noted.

“I am sure it is not politically possible, but it would be worth thinking about,” the former Fed chairman said.

Emergência? Crise financeira? Mas a economia não está a recuperar de forma sólida?

 

[Orion]

Problemas financeiros na Áustria:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...s-debt-debacle-stalks-Austrias-Carinthia.html

 

[camrov8]

Não é a Áustria é uma região com más decisões, a economia esta saudável e para prevenir isso o governo recusou-se a pagar a quem não sabe o gerir bancos

 

[Orion]

Não publico excertos do artigo (em baixo) porque recomendo a leitura integral. Mas aparentemente o Qatar quer que a Al-Nusra se distancie da Al-Qaeda, incluindo mudar de nome, para deixar de ser considerada uma organização terrorista. A estratégia é tornar-se uma organização que luta contra o Assad. Como tal a propaganda categorizaria os ex-islamitas como lutadores da liberdade e o Qatar pode financiá-los livremente. Mas mais ridículo ainda é que a 'nova' organização seria usada para combater o EI (previamente financiado pelo Qatar). Nada muda mas a propaganda dirá o contrário. A luta contra o terror consiste, apenas e só, em substituir terroristas por outros.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/04/uk-mideast-crisis-nusra-insight-idUKKBN0M00G620150304

 

[Orion]

Major news out of Libya as Abdelhakim Belhadj, the former head of the al Qaeda-linked Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, and a major player in the U.S.-backed overthrow of Moammar Gadhafi, has reportedly joined the Islamic State and is leading its forces there. This according to The Blaze National Security journalist Sara Carter on Twitter, and Fox News’ Catherine Herridge in a Fox News report.

Belhadj’s ties to al Qaeda were controversial during the run up to U.S. airstrikes in support of the Libyan rebels, but this did not prevent him from maintaining a high profile at the time, including being made head of the Tripoli Military Council, a position he held until resigning to run for office in May 2012. Belhadj has a reputation for involvement in the international jihad has well, playing a role in the 2004 Madrid training bombings, and accused by investigators of being involved in the murder of two Tunisian politicians at behest of the Muslim Brotherhood.

WT

Catherine Herridge reported on "America's Newsroom" today about ISIS's expansion into Libya, which includes training camps and support networks.

Herridge said that a senior U.S. intelligence official confirmed that more than a dozen ISIS members from Iraq and Syria are now operating in Libya, but the U.S. does not have the targeting authority to take them out.

Herridge reported that one of the alleged leaders of ISIS in North Africa is Libyan Abdelhakim Belhadj, who was seen by the U.S. as a willing partner in the overthrow of Libyan dictator Muammar Gaddafi in 2011.

"Now, it's alleged he is firmly aligned with ISIS and supports the training camps in eastern Libya," Herridge said.

Fox News

Nem é de admirar que um combatente pela liberdade apoiado pelos ocidentais se torne terrorista. Ele já era bem conhecido (aliás, como é hábito nestas coisas por estes dias):

A former Libyan Islamist commander who says he suffered years of torture by Muammar Gaddafi's henchmen after British and U.S. spies handed him over to Libya will try this week to overturn a ruling blocking legal action against the British government.

Abdel Hakim Belhadj, a rebel leader who helped topple Gaddafi in 2011 and is now leader of the Libyan al-Watan Party, says he and his pregnant wife Fatima were abducted by U.S. CIA agents in Thailand in 2004 and then illegally transferred to Tripoli with the help of British spies.

He was handed over to CIA agents, acting on a tip-off from MI6, and flown via the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean to Tripoli, because at the time Britain and the United States were keen to build relations with Gaddafi.

Reuters

Belhaj, the rebels' commander in Tripoli, said Friday that the U.S. wrongly lumped him in with terrorists after Sept. 11, but that he holds no grudge. He said he shares the West's goal of a free Libya.

"We call and hope for a civil country that is ruled by the law which we were not allowed to enjoy under Gadhafi," he told The Associated Press. "The identity of the country will be left up to the people to choose."

He was not always so inclusive. In a 1996 statement he wrote as leader of the now-dissolved Libyan Islamic Fighting Group, Belhaj wrote a statement vowing to fight "all the deviant groups that call for democracy or fight for the sake of it."

The Libyan Islamic Fighting Group was not a monolithic entity, explained one U.S. official familiar with the group. Some branches have had connections with al-Qaida in Sudan, Afghanistan or Pakistan, but others dropped any relationship with al-Qaida entirely. Belhaj led a faction that disavowed al-Qaida and declared its commitment to establishing a democracy in Libya, the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss matters of intelligence.

In an interview at his headquarters at the sprawling military airport in central Tripoli, Belhaj played down his Islamist ties.

"We never have and never will support what they call terrorism," he said.

HP

 

[Orion]

http://thedailyshow.cc.com/videos/13ry42/bibi-s-big-adventure

Impressionante como quase 20 anos depois o PM israelita debita a mesma k7.

 

[Orion]

IMF’s Director Batista: Greek bailout was “to save German & French banks”

http://www.keeptalkinggreece.com/20...ailout-was-to-save-german-french-banks-video/

 

[Orion]

É da sabedoria comum que na Venezuela todos os problemas são atribuídos a especuladores e a imperialistas do exterior. Como tal, e fazendo a comparação, a Ucrânia está a passar por uma 'Venezuelização':

Ukraine's economy is starting to disintegrate, creating a risk of hundreds of thousands of immigrants flowing into Poland, Polish Deputy Prime Minister Janusz Piechocinski said.

Reuters

Agrarian policy minister Alexey Pavlenko blamed speculators for Ukraine's current food shortage and urged citizens not to panic.

"The situation is due to panic and speculative activities," Pavlenko told the country’s TV channels.

Ukraine’s media reports earlier said the collapse of the hryvnia (Ukraine's currency) and the growing prices on the country’s consumer market have led to panic buying of food, medicines and household appliances.

The shops limit the sales warning customers that they can buy no more than 2 packages of buckwheat, 3-5 kilograms of flour, 3-5 kilograms of sugar and 2 bottles of sunflower oil, the TASS report said.

QNA

Voltando à Venezuela, é também claro que o regime está a implodir devido ao preço do petróleo. Como tal, é 'normal' que o regime aumente a perseguição interna. Não obstante isto, tenho a sensação de que as acusações venezuelanas de interferência exterior são rejeitadas como desculpas para a ingerência interna. Enquanto que esta afirmação tem um pouco de verdade...

The failed coup in Venezuela was closely tied to senior officials in the US government, The Observer has established. They have long histories in the 'dirty wars' of the 1980s, and links to death squads working in Central America at that time.

Washington's involvement in the turbulent events that briefly removed left-wing leader Hugo Chavez from power last weekend resurrects fears about US ambitions in the hemisphere.

Guardian

Infelizmente o preço da 'democracia' e dos 'direitos humanos' na Venezuela será a liberalização das vastas reservas de petróleo (que como toda a gente sabe é completamente insignificante na política externa). Para não me estender muito nas críticas, encontrei uma notícia interessante. E não é que os EUA tentaram sabotar a compra de petróleo venezuelano barato para o Haiti (um dos países mais pobres do mundo?). E tentaram impedir a subida do ordenado mínimo - ainda no Haiti - para que as empresas têxteis continuassem a explorar?

 

[Orion]

A Rússia e a Itália criaram um fundo comum de investimento de 1.000 milhões de dólares (908 milhões de euros), anunciou hoje o presidente russo, Vladimir Putin, numa conferência de imprensa com o primeiro-ministro italiano, Matteo Renzi.

NM

Algures a liderança EUA/OTAN não deve estar muito agradada. Isso de 'isolar' os russos não está a correr muito bem.

A U.S. sanctions team is in Europe this week discussing possible deeper sectoral penalties against Russia if a ceasefire deal with Ukraine is further violated, a senior State Department official said on Wednesday.

Victoria Nuland, U.S. assistant secretary of state for European affairs, told a congressional hearing there were new concerns about heavy shelling and fighting around Donetsk and on the road to Mariupol by pro-Russian separatists.

She said it was important that the United States was in line with Europe on additional sanctions that will be imposed on Russia if the ceasefire worked out in Minsk last month is "further violated or if there is a further land grab."

Reuters



Ainda em relação à Rússia e como propaganda do dia:

"Soldados russos combatem e morrem em grande número no leste da Ucrânia", onde separatistas pró-russos enfrentam o exército ucraniano, disse Vershbow numa conferência de parlamentares europeus na capital da Letónia, Riga.

Quem ler isso ainda vai achar que a OTAN está a ganhar.

O responsável da NATO assegurou que a Aliança "não procura uma confrontação com a Rússia", mas que Moscovo "parece já não querer integrar-se na comunidade euro-atlântica".

"Vemos uma Rússia revisionista, agressiva, que viola as regras internacionais, que quer restabelecer zonas de influência e que está preparada para redesenhar as fronteiras pela força. As ações da Rússia na Ucrânia refletem uma evolução de algo que surgiu há vários anos, da Moldávia à Ucrânia passando pela Geórgia", disse.

Moscovo tem reuniões com a Merkel, Hollande, Renzi e não quer integrar-se?

Noutro lado:



A influência e intervenção descarada do Irão no Iraque só significa uma coisa. Os sunitas (e 'nós') vão financiar grupos armados (que hoje são bestiais mas amanhã são bestas) durante muito tempo.

P.S.: A parte do 'nós' é isto:



Entretanto a ameaça existencial (EI) na Líbia passa despercebida. As conversações de paz estão ao cargo das Nações Unidas. Não deixa de ser 'engraçada' a indiferença. Até nem houve propaganda de guerra/apelos para intervenção militar/histeria com os direitos humanos com as decapitações ocorridas recentemente.

 

[Orion]

Quando um liberal advoga a regulação:

Ms. Rothschild stresses that Smith was sometimes tolerant of government intervention, ''especially when the object is to reduce poverty.'' Smith passionately argued, ''When the regulation, therefore, is in support of the workman, it is always just and equitable; but it is sometimes otherwise when in favour of the masters.'' He saw a tacit conspiracy on the part of employers ''always and everywhere'' to keep wages as low as possible.

E investimento público:

Smith also supported universal government-financed education because he believed the division of labor destined people to perform monotonous, mind-numbing tasks that eroded their intelligence, not because education led to economic gain. His economic policy had social and moral objectives, not just the maximization of national income. To Smith, enlightenment was for the masses.

E um keynesiano advoga a moderação financeira:

Keynesian is one of the words used to describe the running of a budget deficit in order to pay for government activities – running schools, hospitals, the armed forces. It is true that in the 1930s, during a period of economic depression and high regional unemployment, he advocated a public works programme of housebuilding and roadbuilding in order to stimulate the national economy by pumping more money round. But he saw such measures as interim devices to meet particular crises and affirmed that budgets should be balanced in ordinary times. As a treasury official in the 1940s, he warned that deficit finance seemed a “rather desperate expedient”. He opposed governments going into debt in order to maintain personal levels of consumption. He thought prodigal spending was habit-forming, and destructive of nations as well as of companies and individuals.

Insultar alguém usando os termos anteriormente descridos (algo surpreendentemente comum hoje em dia) deixa de fazer sentido.

 

[Orion]

Noutras notícias, a Rússia ainda vai ser elogiada pelas suas reformas:

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed three new decrees into law that will slash government salaries — including his own and that of Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev — by 10% from 1 May.

The government has also announced plans to cut the number of government officials by 5% to 20%.

 

[David sf]

Entretanto, o governo Nacional-Socialista da Grécia propõe a criação de uma PIDE fiscal constituída por amadores:

www.dn.pt/inicio/globo/interior.aspx?content_id=4439036&page=-1