Política e economia internacional 2015

[Agreste]

França fura pacto de estabilidade para fabricar mais uma guerra... assim se prova que o pacto é uma aldrabice inventada para manobrar países, colocar uns na depedência dos outros.

 

[Paulo H]

França fura pacto de estabilidade para fabricar mais uma guerra... assim se prova que o pacto é uma aldrabice inventada para manobrar países, colocar uns na depedência dos outros.

O pacto de estabilidade é uma aldrabice?! Se calhar é, ou não é.. Isso para ti significa que podemos endividar-nos até ao tutano? Não quero acreditar que faças parte do grupo de pessoas que já esqueceu os efeitos do endividamento desmesurado: juros altos, fmi, troika, desemprego..

Se os governos fossem sérios, não seria necessário existir pactos de estabilidade. Bastava ter consciência de que as dívidas contraídas são impostos no futuro!

Agreste, nem eu, nem tu, nem ninguém precisa de pactos de estabilidade para gerir o seu orçamento caseiro! Se tal acontece, é porque os políticos são irresponsáveis.

 

[ClaudiaRM]

O pacto de estabilidade é uma treta sim, não no sentido que não tenha de haver rigor nas contas públicas (é óbvio que sim), mas no sentido em que esse rigor não se reflecte simplesmente num número que não tem em conta nenhuma especificidade. E já nem se fala do facto hipócrita de que a quebra do mesmo é um problema grave quando são uns a fazê-lo e algo normal quando são outros. Percebo que a situação em França traga desafios, claro. Mas ter um povo na miséria, também traz. Hollande pede agora compreensão por parte da Europa para com o incumprimento da França. Eu espero a mesma compreensão para todos. Não é só a defesa nacional que é uma emergência, senhor Hollande. Há outras.

 

[Orion]

A França já ia furar o pacto de estabilidade na mesma. Até parece que só o vai fazer por causa da instabilidade interna e externa (e até parece que iam bombardear menos a Síria).

The European Commission on Wednesday (25 February) gave France another two years to bring its budget within EU rules - the third extension in a row - saying that sanctions represent a "failure".

France has until 2017, having already missed a 2015 deadline, to reduce its budget from the projected 4.1 percent of GDP this year to below 3 percent.

"Sanctions are always a failure," said economic affairs commissioner Pierre Moscovici adding that "if we can convince and encourage, it is better".

https://euobserver.com/economic/127799

Quem é o Moscovici? É apenas o ex-ministro das finanças francês. O equivalente a isto seria o Vítor Gaspar dizer a Portugal para relaxar o défice. A opinião é moldada pelo cargo.

Pierre Moscovici, the finance minister, said the structural deficit had been reduced by 1.2% points of GDP in 2012, and argued it was on track to reduce the deficit level to 3%, but needed more time.

In a statement Moscovici and the budget minister Bernard Cazeneuve said the overshooting of the deficit forecast was "exceptional", and that if the Dexia rescue and the European budget were taken out of the equation, the deficit was at 4.7% in 2012.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/mar/29/frances-misses-2012-budget-deficit-target

 

[Orion]

4 anos depois ainda é relevante (um estudo para provar o senso comum):

Anarchy in the U.K.: Research Shows That Austerity Can Lead to Riots

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/anarchy-in-the-uk-research-shows-that-austerity-can-lead-to-riots/

 

[james]

Em questões de rigor orçamental, infelizmente Portugal não tem lições para dar a ninguém, muito pelo contrário.
Basta ver como este PS se prepara para delapidar a curta folga orçamental que foi conseguida.

 

[Orion]

A new 128-page survey, named The State of France in 2015 has tried to determine the health of the country, three years in to the presidency of Socialist François Hollande and at a time when the country's economic growth has ground to a halt.

While the report by France's Economic, Social and Environmental Council (CESE) is at pains to point out the positives, of which there are many (they can be read by clicking here) it has also stressed a number of challenges facing the country in part because old problems have not been dealt with.

Here's a look at the main problems facing France in 2015.

Les Banlieues, or poor city suburbs, have been a source of concern in France for years, yet in 2015 nothing seems to have changed.

The CESE report says banlieues have become the “principal victims of the crisis and of the fragmentation of French Society.”

Ten million French people live in these neighbourhoods. In some of the more deprived neighbourhoods the unemployment rate among young men is 45 percent.

But it's not just the suburbs of France's cities that are home to the country's poor. More and more people living in rural areas are "descending into poverty", a fact the thousands of farmers who protested across the country earlier this year can attest to.

In its report, CESE makes it clear that high unemployment is “the most dangerous threat” to France’s national cohesion. It suggests the government's attempts to deal with the rising figures are inadequate and has called on ministers to carry out a “complete evaluation” of the policies that have been put in place to try to reduce the jobless rate.

A major concern for France is the number of people and in particular the number of children living in poverty in 2015.

The most recent stats from INSEE show one in five children live below the poverty line as do 14 percent of the population.

And those figures don’t even include the homeless, prisoners and those living in retirement homes, who are normally among the poorest.

Finally and perhaps more significantly, an increasingly number of people are voting for extreme parties like Marine Le Pen's National Front.

Despite recent stats suggesting a slight decrease in the gap between rich and poor, the CESE report says on the whole inequality has widened in France during the financial crisis.

The government's policy of austerity is also making it worse because it hits the poorest people the hardest.

http://www.thelocal.fr/20150924/france-facing-same-old-problems-in-future

Mais austeridade em França causará tendencialmente mais segregação dos pobres. Mais Molenbeeks* naturalmente vão surgir. Vai ser 'giro' de facto.

*

Molenbeek has long provided a haven for aspiring and returning foreign fighters. City officials have long ignored the suburb, leaving some returning fighters free of significant surveillance, a government official who requested anonymity told Al Jazeera. He added that in some pockets of Molenbeek more than 80 percent of the population is Muslim, and many live near or below the poverty line.

French media over the weekend dubbed Molenbeek the European capital of “terrorism.”

http://america.aljazeera.com/articl...-for-foreign-fighters-social-workers-say.html

 

[Orion]

Voltando aos bombardeamentos (franceses) para propaganda:

On Sunday, the French defence ministry said 30 air strikes destroyed an ISIL training camp and munitions dump in Raqqa.

However, a media activist in Raqqa, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told Al Jazeera on Tuesday that French air strikes had targeted abandoned ISIL bases in the suburbs of the city where there are no civilians or ISIL fighters.

"It has been two insane nights. Abandoned ISIL posts were targeted at the entrance of the city, along with ISIL checkpoints and several other points. Electricity and water have been cut off as supply lines were hit too.

"We can confirm that there were no civilians killed or injured in the latest French air strikes.

The Syrian activist in Raqqa said that in the past few days Russian air strikes had caused the most destruction.

"Last week, Russian air strikes destroyed one of the main bridges in the city in addition to the national hospital. Most hospitals in the city have been destroyed in Raqqa," he said.

"Russian air strikes have resulted in so much destruction. If these countries wanted to bomb the heartland of ISIL, they could have done so. But they still have not targeted the group's most important bases.

"This is what we do not understand. The targets bombed by French warplanes were mostly abandoned by ISIL fighters.

"The US, Russia and France are all bombing Syria. How many more countries want to bomb us?

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/syrians-insane-nights-french-bombing-151117052945111.html

O 'sonho' da extrema-direita:

Following the rise of a number of anti-Islam parties in Australia, a Sydney businessman has announced plans to form the country's first Muslim political party.

Diaa Mohamed, a self-employed 34-year-old with a background in marketing, said the Australian Muslim Party (AMP) would first target winning a seat in the Senate at next year's federal election.

From there, he said, it may consider running candidates in state elections.

But there are a number of obstacles to overcome before any of that can happen: the party has not yet gained the 500 signatures it needs to be registered, and it has not yet identified any candidates.

"The party will give Muslims a platform to voice their opinions and views in an official capacity," he said.

"People criticise Muslims for not assimilating in Australia, but what better way is there to assimilate than to join the political process?"

A number of anti-Islam parties have announced plans to run candidates in next year's election, including the controversial Dutch politician Geert Wilder's recent foray into Australian politics with the Australian Liberty Alliance.

Others include the Party for Freedom, which "supports the abolition of state-sponsored multiculturalism for the survival of the Australian people" and the Rise Up Australia Party.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/australia-muslim-party-151117135723042.html

As muitas detenções que se fazem após os ataques mediáticos nem sempre têm razão de ser:

German police have released seven people arrested near the western city of Aachen in connection with the investigation of the Paris attacks.

The dpa news agency quotes an unidentified police official as saying checks found that none had links to the attacks.

Germany's Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere had earlier told reporters authorities acted on a tip that one of those arrested might be a key suspect, "but sadly it's not the man that everyone hoped it would be."

Nota ainda para as 'teorias da conspiração':

Germany's top security official says a Syrian passport found with one of the Paris attackers may have been false flag intended to make Europeans fearful of refugees.

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/a1ff...test-israeli-minister-links-ban-paris-attacks

Finalmente, os russos, muito cuidadosos e lentos para não admitirem que o avião foi atacado como consequência das suas intervenções no M. Oriente aproveitaram o ataque a Paris e sorrateiramente confirmaram o óbvio. Desta forma, as elites russas podem justificar ao seu povo que os ataques podem acontecer a qualquer um. Portanto, é importante a intervenção russa.

 

[james]

Uma intervenção militar em grande escala e inevitável para repor a ordem no Médio Oriente.
De futuro, os países ocidentais ( em especial os States) tem que se deixar de delírios de levar a democracia a regiões que ainda vivem quase sob a forma tribal.
E, já agora, precisamos de melhores líderes, estamos a atravessar uma grave crise de liderança no ocidente. Dou só o exemplo, os 2 últimos presidentes dos EUA ( Bush e Obama) foram " apenas " dois dos piores presidentes americanos em termos de política externa de toda a história. E estamos, todos nós, a pagar isso bem caro.
Desde Clinton ( um excelente presidente) foi sempre a descer.

 

[Orion]

President Bashar al-Assad’s government has killed far more people in Syria this year than the Islamic State, monitoring organizations and analysts say, even as the extremist group grabs headlines with its shocking brutality.

Between January and July, Assad’s military and pro-government militias killed 7,894 people, while the Islamic State killed 1,131, according to the Syrian Network for Human Rights, a monitoring group based in Britain. In a single day last month, government airstrikes are said to have killed more than 100 people in a residential area of Douma, a suburb of the capital, Damascus.

“No human being should have to endure what Assad is putting us through,” said Hassan Takuldin, 27, who witnessed the Douma attacks.

Government forces are responsible for many more of the estimated 250,000 deaths in the four-year-old conflict than are the Islamic State militants and rebel groups, analysts and monitoring groups say. The figures, they say, underscore how Assad’s indiscriminate use of violence has empowered the Islamic State and other extremist groups and forced millions of Syrians to flee to neighboring countries and Europe.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...150d0c-4d85-11e5-80c2-106ea7fb80d4_story.html

De acordo com o artigo, o Assad é responsável por grande parte dos 250 mil mortos. Sim, há quem diga que 44 mil ou mesmo 88,616 soldados ou forças aliadas ao regime morreram (não civis; é preciso fazer a distinção). É preciso relembrar o papel dos franceses nisto tudo, incluindo na Líbia?

France was instrumental, alongside the UK, in lifting the European Union arms embargo on Syria which would allow supplies to be sent to the rebels. But the messages from the Hollande government on the issue have been ambiguous. Last month Foreign minister Laurent Fabius stated that it would not be possible to send weapons as they may fall into the wrong hands and end up being used against France.

French fears are informed by the country’s experiences during the recent intervention in Mali, when French forces encountered surface-to-air missiles that had been looted from Libya. Some of the stock was brought to Mali by Tuareg tribesmen who had been in the pay of Muammar Gaddafi, while others had come from Islamist rebels who had been fighting his regime.

The French had provided arms on the ground in the Libyan conflict, airlifting around 40 tonnes to the rebels in the Nafusa mountains in the west in preparation for the assault on Tripoli. Some Syrian opposition commanders in Jordan and Lebanon have claimed that French-supplied weapons – assault rifles, pistols and ammunition – have already arrived, although this is strongly denied by Paris.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...the-west-has-given-syrias-rebels-8756447.html

O Exército da Síria Livre, aquela força apoiada pelo Ocidente, é uma comédia:

Free Syrian Army decimated by desertions

"The FSA is made up of more than 2,050 factions," he said. He estimates that FSA groups in southern Syria have about 35,000 fighters. He noted that estimates for northern FSA groups prove harder because the FSA "is so fragmented there".

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/11/free-syrian-army-decimated-desertions-151111064831800.html

Uma intervenção militar em grande escala e inevitável para repor a ordem no Médio Oriente.

Só se for por exércitos árabes (claro que a III GM surgiria logo).

Syria crisis: Bashar al-Assad must go or face 'military option', Saudi Arabia's foreign minister says

http://english.alarabiya.net/en/New...M-Assad-must-go-or-face-military-option-.html

 

[Orion]

Globally, terrorism is on the rise - but little of it occurs in Western countries

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-11-17/global-terrorism-index-increase/6947200

 

[Orion]

O Assad tem que sair, versão francesa:

France, Saudi Arabia inch closer to civil nuclear deal

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/24/us-france-saudi-contracts-idUSKBN0P41IN20150624

France and Saudi Arabia agreed on Wednesday to press ahead with feasibility studies to build two flagship Areva-designed EPR nuclear reactors as the two allies firm up business ties amid tensions across the region.

"We are about to sign deals worth $12 billion," French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius told a news conference ahead of a ceremony between President Francois Hollande and Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

Few new contracts were announced on Wednesday, with the core deal being the reiteration of a firm Airbus order made at the Paris air show last week by Saudi Arabian Airlines worth $8 billion at list prices.

Contracts agreed on Wednesday also included 23 light twin-engined Airbus H145 helicopters worth $500 million, Fabius said.

France has already won about $15 billion of defense contracts in the region over the last year.

'Continuamos' a ser o braço armado dos sunitas. E a admiração é total quando os russos fazem o mesmo com os xiitas. Toda a ação tem consequência.

 

[Agreste]

E hoje, ano 2015, ainda há quem tenha a lata de culpar critérios e limites. Enfim, santa pachorra que tem que haver!

Em 2015 o BCE está a comprar directamente a dívida da câmara municipal de paris. É preciso ter lata!

 

[Agreste]

Inventámos variados e até engenhosos estratagemas para aldrabar as contas públicas no que a limites diz respeito. As PPP onde somos caso único no mundo na sua dimensão tal o abuso que foi, mais não foi uma estratégia de suborçamentação da despesa de obras públicas - > para dívida privada, feita em larga escala por Guterres e Sócrates. Algo em torno dos 70 mil milhões € se não estou em erro. Desorçamentação tão vil que os contratos eram feitos de forma a que nem era o governo em funções que iria ter as primeiras anualidades dos contratos a cair no orçamento, deixavam para o governo seguinte.

o secretário de estado dos swaps que agora dizem ir tratar do novo banco deixou os transportes de lisboa com 2 concessões de 8 anos que vão custar 1000 milhões... ao governo seguinte.

 

[Agreste]

Serviços de baixo valor, salários baixos, despedimentos, filho do patrão na administração... Finalmente a TAP será uma empresa portuguesa.

Eis que a troco de 2 milhões de euros a MSC - Mediterranean Shipping Company ganha não só um parque de locomotivas (sub)avaliado em 116 milhões de euros, mais uns 12 milhões de peças sobressalentes, mais 8 milhões de equipamentos técnicos embarcados, mais um "perdão" de umas dívidas a empresas públicas de 70 milhões de euros, mais o direito a despedir 55 trabalhadores, mais o direito a acabar com o serviço de transporte ferroviário de carga em 4 linhas (Minho, Douro, Algarve e Oeste), mais o direito a cobrar taxas por operações de manobras que (a CP CARGA) hoje não cobrava.

É caso para perguntar: Querem mais ou já basta assim?

Há quem pactue com a destruição do país... eu não.