Previsão e Seguimento de Furacões (Atlântico 2025)

[Orion]

Irá passar nas redondezas de uma boia amanhã https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

 

[StormRic]

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near
145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Erin is a category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued
rapid strengthening is expected today, followed by fluctuations in
intensity through the weekend.

Previsão anterior (18A) do NHC foi largamente ultrapassada.

Erin é Cat.5 agora, >137 nós (>252 Km/h).

"455
WTNT65 KNHC 161520
TCUAT5

Hurricane Erin Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
1120 AM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN IS NOW A
CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Erin has become a Category 5 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale with maximum sustained winds
near 160 mph (255 km/h). The minimum pressure has fallen to near
917 mb (27.08 inches). The next intermediate advisory will be issued
at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM AST...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 62.8W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM N OF ANGUILLA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...255 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...917 MB...27.08 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven/Kelly"

 

[StormRic]

Últimas 20 horas, até às 18h00, Erin cat.5

 

[Orion]

Irá passar nas redondezas de uma boia amanhã https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/ https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41043

Já não deve. Ainda assim:

 

[StormRic]

Discussão 22

Conclusão: mais 24 horas em categoria 5 e mantendo "Majo5 Hurricane" até pelo menos a 120 horas (5 dias).

"FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 20.0N 64.0W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 20.4N 65.7W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 21.4N 67.6W 140 KT 160 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 22.7N 69.2W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 24.0N 70.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
60H 19/0600Z 25.5N 70.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 27.3N 71.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 31.7N 70.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 36.8N 65.0W 100 KT 115 MPH"

 

[StormRic]

Mas logo a seguir voltou a Cat.4, 240 Km/h, e subiu a pressão central.

"000
WTNT35 KNHC 162348
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Sat Aug 16 2025

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT ERIN IS
UNDERGOING AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NW OF ANGUILLA
ABOUT 150 MI...235 KM NE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES

 

[StormRic]

Erin mantendo-se como furacão maior ("major hurricane"), agora em categoria 3 depois de passar por cat.5 durante poucas horas.

Dias 16 e 17 (utc), 48 horas.

Aviso #26
"FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 21.7N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.8N 69.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 24.0N 71.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 25.4N 71.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 27.1N 72.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 29.0N 73.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 31.2N 72.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.3N 69.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 40.3N 59.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch"

Actualização às 00:00 utc, aviso público 26A
"BULLETIN
Hurricane Erin Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025
800 PM AST Sun Aug 17 2025

...LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENTS LIKELY ACROSS THE U.S.
EASTERN SEABOARD AS ERIN BECOMES A VERY LARGE HURRICANE THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 68.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM NW OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES"