Vejam isto
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 22 Jul 2009 06:00 to Thu 23 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 22 Jul 2009 00:43
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Northern Portugal and Northwestern Spain mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
DISCUSSION
... Northern Portugal / Northwestern Spain ...
Models keep on simulating low-end instability release over the region, with MLCAPEs mostly under 500 J/kg (except for the western coast). However, good forcing from the approaching trough should aid in the convective initiation. Storms that form, will have a very high potential to become supercells, given more than 35 m/s of DLS and high SREH values ( locally above 250 J/kg in 0-3 km layer) should be available. Shear will be very strong also in the lowest km, yielding values up to 15 m/s. Therefore, a tornado and severe wind gust threats are forecast and in case of supercells, marginally severe hail can not be ruled out either. This area will be closely monitored for a possible update - if predicted instability or forcing strenghtens over the area a level 2 will be necessary. One of the questionable factor is also the rate of storm clustering as low level boundary will be oriented parallel to the prevailing flow.
www.estofex.org
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 22 Jul 2009 06:00 to Thu 23 Jul 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Wed 22 Jul 2009 00:43
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Northern Portugal and Northwestern Spain mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
DISCUSSION
... Northern Portugal / Northwestern Spain ...
Models keep on simulating low-end instability release over the region, with MLCAPEs mostly under 500 J/kg (except for the western coast). However, good forcing from the approaching trough should aid in the convective initiation. Storms that form, will have a very high potential to become supercells, given more than 35 m/s of DLS and high SREH values ( locally above 250 J/kg in 0-3 km layer) should be available. Shear will be very strong also in the lowest km, yielding values up to 15 m/s. Therefore, a tornado and severe wind gust threats are forecast and in case of supercells, marginally severe hail can not be ruled out either. This area will be closely monitored for a possible update - if predicted instability or forcing strenghtens over the area a level 2 will be necessary. One of the questionable factor is also the rate of storm clustering as low level boundary will be oriented parallel to the prevailing flow.
www.estofex.org