Seguimento Previsão do Tempo e Modelos - Outubro 2009
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HotSpot
Cumulonimbus
Uma chamada de atenção para o vento forte no litoral centro/sul na noite de quarta para quinta-feira.
Vento médio de 40-50 km/h com rajadas que podem atingir 70/80 km/h.
Vento médio de 40-50 km/h com rajadas que podem atingir 70/80 km/h.
Agora?
Então agora vamos sofres a acção de um pós frontal com arrefecimento e aguaceiros que agora sim poderão ser de neve por volta dos 1700 metros
Este pós frontal deverá afectar-nos mais 2 dias depois deve voltar o tempo seco. Isto julgo eu espero que me engane.
Então agora vamos sofres a acção de um pós frontal com arrefecimento e aguaceiros que agora sim poderão ser de neve por volta dos 1700 metros
Este pós frontal deverá afectar-nos mais 2 dias depois deve voltar o tempo seco. Isto julgo eu espero que me engane.
Aqui no Algarve vamos á ficar á espera do que nos reserva esta frente, porque depois regressa o bom tempo na Quinta, apesar de amanhã não deverem exitir grande precipitação.
Assim entre Quinta e dia 27 Outubro teremos garantidamente bom tempo no Centro e sul e alguma possibilidade de chuva a Norte !!
Depois do dia 28 existe tendencia ainda pouco definida de pelo menos chuva no Norte e Centro até dia 31 !!
Assim entre Quinta e dia 27 Outubro teremos garantidamente bom tempo no Centro e sul e alguma possibilidade de chuva a Norte !!
Depois do dia 28 existe tendencia ainda pouco definida de pelo menos chuva no Norte e Centro até dia 31 !!
joseoliveira
Cumulonimbus
Estamos ainda a 4/5 dias de distância mas provavelmente essa fase de tempo seco será de curta duração visto que para o próximo Domingo se prevê o regresso da chuva, pelo menos para a região centro.
Espera-se que sim...
thunderboy
Cumulonimbus
Storm Forecast
Valid: Tue 20 Oct 2009 06:00 to Wed 21 Oct 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 Oct 2009 03:57
Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE
A level 1 was issued for Moldova and Ukraine for a chance of tornadoes and excessive precipitation.
A level 1 was issued for southern Portugal and southern Spain for a chance of tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for eastern Spain for a chance of tornadoes and excessive precipitation.
SYNOPSIS
The cold front of a very large low pressure system, situated between Greenland and Morocco with its center west of Ireland, reaches the Iberian Peninsula and western France. On both sides of the front destabilization takes place. Predicted EL temperatures are initially not so cold over land (-10°C) which could inhibit thunder, but chances are better in the south and east where more moisture is advected onshore.
Another upper low centered over Hungary affects the area around the Black Sea, with northward advection of a warm sector unstable airmass into Moldova and Ukraine.
DISCUSSION
...Moldova and Ukraine...
A shortwave trough swings around the low and forces strong lift over an occlusion area. CAPE gets smaller farther inland while vertical shear values reach 15 m/s and 25 m/s respectively for 0-1 and 0-6 km shear, SREH can go over 300 m²/s². This suggests supercells may be able to form and produce tornadoes. Else, persistent convective rainfall from training storms may locally produce flash flooding.
...southern Iberian peninsula...
Associated with the cold front, a band of slight instability and strong shear (15 m/s LLS, 25 m/s DLS, 250 m²/s² SREH3) at the right entrance region of a jetstreak could produce storms with a chance of tornadoes. Severe gusts are also possible from bow echoes as the cold front pushes quickly SE-ward, rather than drag slowly over a region for long periods of time. Corfidi MCS propagation vectors can reach 25 m/s.
...eastern Spain...
Instability will be present to some extent during the day, but is forecast to increase during the final hours of the forecast period (Wed 03Z-09Z) as the cold front (now with cyclogenesis) comes through. Vertical wind shear, forcing and water content should also increase. Storms will likely develop along the coast and move onshore, where shear is increased (12 m/s LLS, 15 m/s DLS, 150-250 m²/s² SREH) for a part due to friction. A tornado, strong/severe gusts, or isolated marginally large hail are not ruled out. Strong onshore moisture flux and storms contribute to intense rainfall, which could cause local flash flooding, but because the system does not appear to stall over the region a level 2 for precipitation seems not necessary.
Atenção ao agravamento substancial do tempo a partir da tarde de amanhã, com vento muito forte e chuva intensa para as regiões do norte e centro. A Protecção Civil já prolongou o alerta até às 12h00 de Quinta-feira.
"A Protecção Civil vai prolongar o Alerta Azul para todos os distritos do Continente até às 12h00 de quinta-feira, devido à previsão de chuva forte e de vento com rajadas que podem atingir os 100 km/hora. Portugal Continental será influenciado pela passagem de sistemas frontais que irão provocar chuva por vezes forte, vento com rajadas que podem atingir os 100 km/hora e agitação marítima na Costa Ocidental que pode atingir os seis metros. A meteorologia prevê que esse tipo de instabilidade comece amanhã à tarde e se prolongue por toda a noite e madrugada de quinta-feira."
Renascença
Modelo GFS para as 06h00 de 22 de Outubro de 2009 (Fonte: Meteored)
"A Protecção Civil vai prolongar o Alerta Azul para todos os distritos do Continente até às 12h00 de quinta-feira, devido à previsão de chuva forte e de vento com rajadas que podem atingir os 100 km/hora. Portugal Continental será influenciado pela passagem de sistemas frontais que irão provocar chuva por vezes forte, vento com rajadas que podem atingir os 100 km/hora e agitação marítima na Costa Ocidental que pode atingir os seis metros. A meteorologia prevê que esse tipo de instabilidade comece amanhã à tarde e se prolongue por toda a noite e madrugada de quinta-feira."
Renascença
Modelo GFS para as 06h00 de 22 de Outubro de 2009 (Fonte: Meteored)
Sim e muita atenção para esse agravamento a partir do fim do dia de amanha principalmente devido ao vento no litoral Oeste...e parece que cada saída agrava um pouco mais! Nem me admira nada ser colocado um alerta laranja no litoral oeste devido ao vento...
Snifa
Furacão
O aviso do Estofex para amanhã:
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 Oct 2009 06:00 to Thu 22 Oct 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 Oct 2009 21:38
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Portugal mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Southern coasts of France and Northwestern Italy mainly for excessive rainfall and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Western Italy mainly for tornadoes and to the lesser extent for severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
A deep mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic will be a major factor in the weather development during the day. Its southern part will move quickly to the east with strong jet surrounding it. Jet-streak with speeds over 70 m/s at 300 hPa embedded in the northwesterly flow should result in the strong synoptic impulse, travelling across Portugal and Spain in the evening hours. A cut-off low situated over the Central Europe should progress to the northeast, slowly filling.
At the surface, two main pressure systems will dominate - a high over Russia and a large low centered just west of Ireland coast. This low has occluded and filled with moist maritime polar airmass so that widespread bands of showers or weak thunderstorms are anticipated in the environment of weak shear and marginal instability. Strong cold front will cross the Western Mediterranean during the day and will affect Italy in the late evening and night hours. The aforementioned developing impulse will result in cyclogenesis and another frontal system will cross Iberian Penninsula.
DISCUSSION
... Portugal and Spain...
In the left-exit region of the jet-streak cyclogenesis is forecast with strong synoptic upward motion along the newly developed frontal system. In the warm sector of the surface low, a moist maritime airmass will reside with very marginal values of CAPE, as shown by GFS and ECMWF models. This instability should be most prominent close to the western coasts of Iberian penninsula. Very strong low level flow, over 25 m/s at 850 hPa should result in the LLS values locally over 15 m/s. With DLS over 30 m/s and high SREH values, well organised thunderstorms might form, possibly a strongly forced convective line on the leading edge of the quickly moving cold front. Embedded circulations might form with slight risk of tornadoes. Due to the strong flow, marginally severe wind gusts might occur as well. Level 1 is issued for Portugal where the threat of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be the highest, but due to the many uncertainities, mostly regarding the instability release, an update might become necessary during the day, e.g. shifting the area more to the east.
Fonte:http://www.estofex.org/
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 Oct 2009 06:00 to Thu 22 Oct 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 Oct 2009 21:38
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Portugal mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Southern coasts of France and Northwestern Italy mainly for excessive rainfall and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Western Italy mainly for tornadoes and to the lesser extent for severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
A deep mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic will be a major factor in the weather development during the day. Its southern part will move quickly to the east with strong jet surrounding it. Jet-streak with speeds over 70 m/s at 300 hPa embedded in the northwesterly flow should result in the strong synoptic impulse, travelling across Portugal and Spain in the evening hours. A cut-off low situated over the Central Europe should progress to the northeast, slowly filling.
At the surface, two main pressure systems will dominate - a high over Russia and a large low centered just west of Ireland coast. This low has occluded and filled with moist maritime polar airmass so that widespread bands of showers or weak thunderstorms are anticipated in the environment of weak shear and marginal instability. Strong cold front will cross the Western Mediterranean during the day and will affect Italy in the late evening and night hours. The aforementioned developing impulse will result in cyclogenesis and another frontal system will cross Iberian Penninsula.
DISCUSSION
... Portugal and Spain...
In the left-exit region of the jet-streak cyclogenesis is forecast with strong synoptic upward motion along the newly developed frontal system. In the warm sector of the surface low, a moist maritime airmass will reside with very marginal values of CAPE, as shown by GFS and ECMWF models. This instability should be most prominent close to the western coasts of Iberian penninsula. Very strong low level flow, over 25 m/s at 850 hPa should result in the LLS values locally over 15 m/s. With DLS over 30 m/s and high SREH values, well organised thunderstorms might form, possibly a strongly forced convective line on the leading edge of the quickly moving cold front. Embedded circulations might form with slight risk of tornadoes. Due to the strong flow, marginally severe wind gusts might occur as well. Level 1 is issued for Portugal where the threat of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be the highest, but due to the many uncertainities, mostly regarding the instability release, an update might become necessary during the day, e.g. shifting the area more to the east.
Fonte:http://www.estofex.org/
O aviso do Estofex para amanhã:
Storm Forecast
Valid: Wed 21 Oct 2009 06:00 to Thu 22 Oct 2009 06:00 UTC
Issued: Tue 20 Oct 2009 21:38
Forecaster: PUCIK
A level 1 was issued for Portugal mainly for severe wind gusts and tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Southern coasts of France and Northwestern Italy mainly for excessive rainfall and to the lesser extent for tornadoes.
A level 1 was issued for Western Italy mainly for tornadoes and to the lesser extent for severe wind gusts.
SYNOPSIS
A deep mid-level trough over the eastern Atlantic will be a major factor in the weather development during the day. Its southern part will move quickly to the east with strong jet surrounding it. Jet-streak with speeds over 70 m/s at 300 hPa embedded in the northwesterly flow should result in the strong synoptic impulse, travelling across Portugal and Spain in the evening hours. A cut-off low situated over the Central Europe should progress to the northeast, slowly filling.
At the surface, two main pressure systems will dominate - a high over Russia and a large low centered just west of Ireland coast. This low has occluded and filled with moist maritime polar airmass so that widespread bands of showers or weak thunderstorms are anticipated in the environment of weak shear and marginal instability. Strong cold front will cross the Western Mediterranean during the day and will affect Italy in the late evening and night hours. The aforementioned developing impulse will result in cyclogenesis and another frontal system will cross Iberian Penninsula.
DISCUSSION
... Portugal and Spain...
In the left-exit region of the jet-streak cyclogenesis is forecast with strong synoptic upward motion along the newly developed frontal system. In the warm sector of the surface low, a moist maritime airmass will reside with very marginal values of CAPE, as shown by GFS and ECMWF models. This instability should be most prominent close to the western coasts of Iberian penninsula. Very strong low level flow, over 25 m/s at 850 hPa should result in the LLS values locally over 15 m/s. With DLS over 30 m/s and high SREH values, well organised thunderstorms might form, possibly a strongly forced convective line on the leading edge of the quickly moving cold front. Embedded circulations might form with slight risk of tornadoes. Due to the strong flow, marginally severe wind gusts might occur as well. Level 1 is issued for Portugal where the threat of tornadoes and severe wind gusts will be the highest, but due to the many uncertainities, mostly regarding the instability release, an update might become necessary during the day, e.g. shifting the area more to the east.
Fonte:http://www.estofex.org/
tornados outra vez a caminho de Portugal???
Mas afinal a partir de que horas do dia de amanha é que o pior está para vir??
Vai haver um aumento do vento a partir do final da tarde de amanha com um pico entre as 23h de quarta e as 4h da madrugada de quinta...inicio da madrugada também altura que poderá haver condições de forte instabilidade
A Tornadogénese é uma coisa muito complexa, dependente de condições muito específicas que são (felizmente) raras de se juntar, é sempre uma possibilidade remota, mesmo que a probabilidade apontada pelo Estofex fosse de "3" em vez de "1", nunca se pode dizer que haverá tornados. Apenas se pode dizer que "há certas condições favoráveis a..."
ruka
Cumulus
As últimas saídas dos modelos para o evento de logo à noite:
Precipitação GFS
Precipitação ECMWF
http://www.meteo.pt/pt/otempo/previsaonumerica/index.jsp
Precipitação ALADIN
http://www.meteo.pt/pt/otempo/previsaonumerica/index.jsp
Vento GFS
Precipitação GFS
Precipitação ECMWF
http://www.meteo.pt/pt/otempo/previsaonumerica/index.jsp
Precipitação ALADIN
http://www.meteo.pt/pt/otempo/previsaonumerica/index.jsp
Vento GFS
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